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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5852 on: June 25, 2020, 09:51:40 AM »
1,124 hospitalizations currently in GA.  New cases each day running around 1700, deaths at 22 (or so).

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/

Beginning of June hospitalizations was around 800, so that is up 40% or so.  New cases has tripled.

Number of deaths is of course a lagger.  The mortality rate does appear to be dropping as the case count rises rather steeply, and the serious case rate is climbing but more slowly, fortunately.

Personally we are backing off on dining out for now, not to zero, just reducing it.

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5853 on: June 25, 2020, 09:59:53 AM »
The states with a big increase in cases are mostly all southern where its warmer

what happens when it gets warm

you eat more ice cream

we need to lay off of ice cream


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tcwz8-EfFYE
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5854 on: June 25, 2020, 10:01:10 AM »
As of yesterday deaths has declined for nine weeks in a row

Yes I know deaths is a trailing indicator so this trend might change
Yeah, and as I said it's too early to call. Three weeks ago we had a "pause" in the decline of the death rate, and then it resumed. And right now I'm only looking at two consecutive days. But we had our highest daily case rate yesterday since Apr 24, and second highest nationally ever, after a week of increase.

So unlike the situation 3 weeks ago, the leading indicator (cases) has been rising sharply for about 10-14, so if we were going to start seeing this show up in deaths it happens to be about the right time. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5855 on: June 25, 2020, 10:13:05 AM »
Oh, and in case anyone is still on the "people are dying from other causes and it's being called COVID", I recommend a revisit to the CDC Excess Deaths analysis:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Their data only goes to June 13 so far, and the freely admit their data is incomplete because as they state "NOTE: Data in recent weeks are incomplete. Only 60% of death records are submitted to NCHS within 10 days of the date of death, and completeness varies by jurisdiction." So if anything, they're undercounting the actual known deaths that have occurred. 

But they say that as of the week ending June 13, there are somewhere between 110K and 154K excess deaths since Feb 1. Their own data only ascribes 108K to COVID-19 by June 13. 

So we still have a mystery that somewhere between 2K and 46K extra people died "of something" than those we are counting as COVID-19 that wouldn't have died in any normal year by this time. 

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5856 on: June 25, 2020, 10:19:11 AM »
Oh, and in case anyone is still on the "people are dying from other causes and it's being called COVID", I recommend a revisit to the CDC Excess Deaths analysis:

that would go against the current death rate trend so that theory has no merit
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5857 on: June 25, 2020, 10:25:53 AM »
that would go against the current death rate trend so that theory has no merit
Not really... The shape of the excess deaths mirrors the shape of the COVID-19 data, so there's no incongruity there. 




I'm talking more about the overall numbers. I think there are a lot of people who believe the 125K number attributed to COVID-19 is MUCH higher than actual. I think that's entirely backwards. If anything, it's more likely that we've undercounted COVID-19 deaths than overcounted.  

It doesn't refute the fact that deaths from COVID-19, whether we've over or undercounted, have been declining for the last 9 weeks from the peak.

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5858 on: June 25, 2020, 10:35:47 AM »
It likely will be. I'm meeting with my advisor in 30 minutes to pick his brain.
Brain picked. I'm staying put.
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Entropy

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5859 on: June 25, 2020, 11:05:49 AM »
https://apnews.com/753ed7dc88ec5ce8906967f268d78b99


Virus cases surge among the young, endangering older adults

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5860 on: June 25, 2020, 11:07:54 AM »
Dumbass kids.
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Entropy

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5861 on: June 25, 2020, 11:18:38 AM »
I'd guessing that in 10 years we will read articles and family therapists will be working on issues where a grandchild brought COVID to grandma, she passed and now aunts/uncles/cousins blame them and the family has become split.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5862 on: June 25, 2020, 11:39:53 AM »
I sold some I thought were sensitive to another virus surge and exercised some options that I had to do before September anyway.

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5863 on: June 25, 2020, 01:18:52 PM »
Dumbass kids.
dumbass older adults that interact with kids
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5864 on: June 25, 2020, 01:50:15 PM »
dumbass older adults that interact with kids
Not by choice.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5865 on: June 25, 2020, 01:51:18 PM »
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-cases/coronavirus-may-have-infected-10-times-more-americans-than-reported-cdc-says-idUSKBN23W2PU


I'll take this as a positive.



WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Government experts believe more than 20 million Americans could have contracted the coronavirus, 10 times more than official counts, indicating many people without symptoms have or have had the disease, senior administration officials said.

The estimate, from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, is based on serology testing used to determine the presence of antibodies that show whether an individual has had the disease, the officials said.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

 

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