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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5824 on: June 24, 2020, 11:11:59 PM »
Some announcements that the feds will stop funding various testing sites. There seems to be a feeling that the federal government has more or less given up.
Nope.
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CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5825 on: June 24, 2020, 11:19:40 PM »
That is mind numbing.  I have seen video of people who say they won’t wear one because they think it infringes on their liberty/ but I didn’t know they were ridiculing those who do.  I have seen plenty of the opposite.

it’s hard to understand.  If there is even a chance it is helping our world, why not?
You haven't seen the memes of cowardly mask-wearers compared to the brave soldiers who stormed Omaha Beach?  Or the cowardly mask-wearers hiding behind a couch in fear that they might be exposed to a little virus?
I'm sure that the people putting those out are non-mask-wearers who want the economy to open up.
My sister who lives just north of Dallas posts stupid crap like that on Facebook every day.
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5826 on: June 24, 2020, 11:42:17 PM »
You haven't seen the memes of cowardly mask-wearers compared to the brave soldiers who stormed Omaha Beach?  Or the cowardly mask-wearers hiding behind a couch in fear that they might be exposed to a little virus?
I'm sure that the people putting those out are non-mask-wearers who want the economy to open up.
My sister who lives just north of Dallas posts stupid crap like that on Facebook every day.
Unreal 
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ELA

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5827 on: June 24, 2020, 11:53:53 PM »
The worst thing to happen was summer.  People just quit trying, and somehow some managed to turn mask wearing into some wimp move.  If this had been over the winter here, people would have actually distanced, and stick with it.  The only time they would go out was to a store, and presumably worn a mask.  We might have had a shot.


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5828 on: June 24, 2020, 11:54:22 PM »
“Reconfigured” or purely fabricated? Coronavirus misinformation comes in multiple forms and demands multiple solutions
Misinformation is not a monolith. (“The Pope endorsed Trump” from The Onion is not the same as “The Pope endorsed Trump” from your uncle on Facebook.) A lot of good work the past few years has gone into finding the right ways to classify different types.
First Draft likes to divide it into misinformation (“false content, but the person sharing doesn’t realise that it is false or misleading”), disinformation (“content that is intentionally false and designed to cause harm”), and malinformation (“genuine information that is shared with an intent to cause harm”). Then there’s satire. Good information put in the wrong context. Imposter content. Top-down, bottom-up, financially motivated, politically motivated — it’s all a bit of a taxonomist’s nightmare.
In a new report out this morning, the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism has tried to do some of that sorting for mis-, dis-, mal-, and whatever other sorts of information are circulating around the coronavirus.
The report — by Oxonians J. Scott Brennen, Felix M. Simon, Philip N. Howard, and Rasmus Kleis Nielsen — looks at the scale, formats, sources, claims, and responses those various bits of wrongness have had so far. Some highlights:
Fact-checkers are doing what they can, but it’s all uphill. “The number of English-language fact-checks rose more than 900% from January to March. (As fact-checkers have limited resources and cannot check all problematic content, the total volume of different kinds of coronavirus misinformation has almost certainly grown even faster.)”
Most of what’s circulating is “reconfigured” misinformation, not the result of straight-up invention (à la “The Pope endorsed Trump”). Sometimes these mix a set of true and false claims in the same post; sometimes it’s a real image that’s been mislabeled with a COVID-19 connection. This is when “existing and often true information is spun, twisted, recontextualised, or reworked.”
The reconfigured stuff also generated more activity on social than the pure fabrications. And there were no deepfakes, so tamp down that particular moral panic in your mind.
Being famous makes it easier to spread misinformation. (Duh.) “High-level politicians, celebrities, or other prominent public figures produced or spread only 20% of the misinformation in our sample, but that misinformation attracted a large majority of all social media engagements in the sample. While some of these instances involve content posted on social media, 36% of top-down misinformation also includes politicians speaking publicly or to the media.”
Twitter needs to step up its game. “Social media platforms have responded to a majority of the social media posts rated false in our sample. There is nonetheless very significant variation from company to company. While 59% of false posts remain active on Twitter with no direct warning label, the number is 27% for YouTube and 24% for Facebook.”
“As we have shown, there is wide variety in the types of misinformation circulating, the claims made concerning the virus, and motivations behind its production,” the authors write. “In this sense, misinformation about COVID-19 is as diverse as information about it.
“The risk in not recognising the diversity in the landscape of coronavirus misinformation is assuming there could be a single solution to this set of problems. Instead, our findings suggest there will be no silver bullet or inoculation — no ‘cure’ for misinformation about the new coronavirus. Instead, addressing the spread of misinformation about COVID-19 will take a sustained and coordinated effort by independent fact-checkers, independent news media, platform companies, and public authorities to help the public understand and navigate the pandemic.”




In all that, was there a point? Or an argument? Or something relevant to what I posted?

Help me out here. Maybe I'm just thick, but I'm missing it.

CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5829 on: June 25, 2020, 12:38:23 AM »
1. The Second Wave
The number of new cases doesn't look good. Here's the data as of this morning. Let's look at the curve on the rolling 7-day average:
[img width=563.963]https://mcusercontent.com/41df14e6667a85d0f6e4a4f5e/images/8bd451dc-97b4-4936-b841-01ad8f92fbc4.jpg[/img][/font][/size][/color]
Not great, Bob.

On the other hand, the number of tests performed daily has increased dramatically—which is very good. Have a look at the daily test numbers:
[img width=563.963]https://mcusercontent.com/41df14e6667a85d0f6e4a4f5e/images/2af04753-cc3a-4da0-b01d-9342cbb383b7.jpg[/img][/size][/color]
Yay testing!

This is why some people who hold high office are saying that the only reason we have more cases is because we're doing more testing.

That is one possible explanation.

Another possible explanation is that there are more infections out in the wild than there were three weeks ago.

If that were the case, then you would expect to see the percentage of positive tests going up and ruh-roh:
[img width=563.963]https://mcusercontent.com/41df14e6667a85d0f6e4a4f5e/images/74c539f6-0643-4153-b0b3-95358ad4eb48.jpg[/img][/font][/size][/color]
So the low point in our percentage of positive tests tracks almost exactly with our low point in daily new cases (that was right around June 10). And since then the percentage of tests coming back positive has gone upward at the same time that the number of new cases have gone upward.

Now, if you want to argue that this is all still just an artifact of testing, you could do that. You could say that there's selection bias going on and that suddenly we have a greater percentage of the infected population deciding to get tested. Which is why the positive test rate is increasing.

But that's a little thin.

The other explanation is that the actual real-world population of infections has grown.
2. Death Watch
Here is the thing about testing: We have two worlds.

The first world is the real world, in which people are either infected, or they are not. The problem with the real world is that it is impossible for us to see it while it's happening. Because the virus is invisible and the world is too big and moves too fast.

The second world is the shadow world of testing, which you can think of as an alternate reality that is closely—but not perfectly—based on the real world.

Getting a test doesn't change the base reality. Testing merely reveals an individual slice of reality and quantifies it for observers to see. Ideally, the world of testing tracks very closely with the real world and gives us a good picture of what the real world looks like.

But there are lots of variables and uncertainties. The picture testing gives you may be very close to reality, or may be a slightly warped version of reality.

The single best metric we have in terms of showing us what the real world looks like is death.

Because a certain percentage of people who contract the coronavirus will die from it. Can this percentage fluctuate depending on the risk profiles of the infected population and therapeutic advances? Yes.

But deaths are the metric that will most closely mirror the real-world status of infections.

There's just one problem with using deaths as your lodestar: They are a trailing indicator of infections.

If the real-world number of infections starts to rise—meaning that we are not just seeing more infections in the testing world for whatever reason—then we will eventually see a corresponding number of deaths. But we won't see it for three or four weeks.

Right now our daily death totals are looking better. Which is to say that the rolling average is 700 deaths per day and the direction of the trend is downward.

The problem is that these death numbers are only confirming the decline in real world infections that we started seeing in the testing world back in early June.

The current daily death totals don't tell us anything about the state of the pool of infections today.
[img width=563.963]https://mcusercontent.com/41df14e6667a85d0f6e4a4f5e/images/52478aa2-3e0e-4184-8614-032bfdb8fd72.jpg[/img][/font][/size][/color]
If there is a second wave, then by mid- to late July we're going to see the daily death numbers start to trend back upward.

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5830 on: June 25, 2020, 12:44:45 AM »
We had more deaths yesterday than last Tuesday . We had more today than last Wednesday. It's too early to call, but I fear an inflection point. 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5831 on: June 25, 2020, 01:55:42 AM »
There's no such thing as a "second wave" guys.  It plateaued for a bit, we opened up, and it's catching fire.  Say your goodbyes to grandma.  

Our superintendent and school board just discussed our plan for this coming school year.  What's certain is that grandmas are going to die from school being open.  Lots of 'em.  What's also certain, and it will be far, far fewer, but some kids are going to die, too.  

Anybody think we'd have opened up if 60% of deaths from Covid-19 were kids instead of the elderly?  What would have been the plan then?  Same urgency to order a pizza?
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MaximumSam

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5832 on: June 25, 2020, 06:09:40 AM »
A "second wave" might be somewhat a misnomer.  When the NY area was getting hard we all shut down and most of the rest of the country looked pretty good outside a few spots.  But that was just a it of fool's good, a lot of those areas that were doing well look to be getting hit hard.  But the numbers in NY (and other places like Italy) are pretty good.  I think a "second wave" would begin if those areas experience large infection rates again.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5833 on: June 25, 2020, 06:53:42 AM »
The whole "second wave" concept originated from the 1918 experience, which was influenza, not corona.  Then there was a second and then third wave (less severe) that were detectable.  The analogy is false.  This one isn't seasonal.

The idea was to prevent hospitals from being overrun, and that was managed, up til now.  I think folks should be considering how to reconstruct that capacity "we didn't need" because we are going to need it, probably.

And to think the protests had no role in this is absurd, it did, but not the whole story.

MaximumSam

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5834 on: June 25, 2020, 07:35:51 AM »
The whole "second wave" concept originated from the 1918 experience, which was influenza, not corona.  Then there was a second and then third wave (less severe) that were detectable.  The analogy is false.  This one isn't seasonal.

The idea was to prevent hospitals from being overrun, and that was managed, up til now.  I think folks should be considering how to reconstruct that capacity "we didn't need" because we are going to need it, probably.

And to think the protests had no role in this is absurd, it did, but not the whole story.
Well, we hope so.  We haven't even seen this in the fall yet.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5835 on: June 25, 2020, 09:02:19 AM »
Shoot a lot of them say they won't take the vaccine
Who is "them" and what percentage say this?

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5836 on: June 25, 2020, 09:04:06 AM »
Who is "them" and what percentage say this?
Probably the same people who don't have their kids vaccinated for MMR.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5837 on: June 25, 2020, 09:05:44 AM »
Sweden still has not suffered a total calamity.  It's rather striking.

They arguably took the worst possible approach to control of the virus and in fact are not doing "that badly".  Not great, but not terrible either.

 

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