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You guys know how I love data...here's more a more expansive breakdown of the method I used earlier in this thread.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Actual Cases (1.7 million: 10 times the number of confirmed cases)

New York State conducted an antibody testing study [source], showing that 12.3% of the population in the state had COVID-19 antibodies as of May 1, 2020. The survey developed a baseline infection rate by testing 15,103 people at grocery stores and community centers across the state over the preceding two weeks. The study provides a breakdown by county, race (White 7%, Asian 11.1%, multi/none/other 14.4%, Black 17.4%, Latino/Hispanic 25.4%), and age, among other variables. 19.9% of the population of New York City had COVID-19 antibodies. With a population of 8,398,748 people in NYC [source], this percentage would indicate that 1,671,351 people had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and had recovered as of May 1 in New York City. The number of confirmed cases reported as of May 1 by New York City was 166,883 [source], more than 10 times less.

Actual Deaths (23,000: almost twice the number of confirmed deaths)

As of May 1, New York City reported 13,156 confirmed deaths and 5,126 probable deaths (deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate but no laboratory test performed), for a total of 18,282 deaths [source]. The CDC on May 11 released its "Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak — New York City, March 11–May 2, 2020" [source] in which it calculated an estimate of actual COVID-19 deaths in NYC by analyzing the "excess deaths" (defined as "the number of deaths above expected seasonal baseline levels, regardless of the reported cause of death") and found that, in addition to the confirmed and probable deaths reported by the city, there were an estimated 5,293 more deaths to be attributed. After adjusting for the previous day (May 1), we get 5,148 additional deaths, for a total of actual deaths of 13,156 confirmed + 5,126 probable + 5,148 additional excess deaths calculated by CDC = 23,430 actual COVID-19 deaths as of May 1, 2020 in New York City.

Infection Fatality Rate (23k / 1.7M = 1.4% IFR)

As of May 1, 23,430 people are estimated to have died out of a total population of 8,398,748 in New York City. This corresponds to a 0.28% crude mortality rate to date, or 279 deaths per 100,000 population, or 1 death every 358 people.

When analyzing the breakdown of deaths by age and condition [source], we can observe how, out of 15,230 confirmed deaths in New York City up to May 12, only 690 (4.5% of all deaths) occurred in patients under the age of 65 who did not have an underlying medical condition

So far there has been 1 death every 1,166 people under 65 years old (compared to 1 death every 358 people in the general population). And 89% of the times, the person who died had one or more underlying medical conditions.

And to reach herd immunity for COVID-19 and effectively end the epidemic, approximately two thirds (67%) of the population would need to be infected. As of May 1, New York City is at 20%, based on the antibody study findings.

Therefore, the crude mortality rate has the potential to more than triple from our current estimate, reaching close to 1,000 deaths per 100,000 population (1% CMR), and close to 300 per 100,000 (0.3% CMR) in the population under 65 years old, with 89% of these deaths (267 out of 300) occurring in people with a known underlying medical condition (including obesity).

Quick summary of the post above:

If you're under the age of 65 with no underlying health conditions, your odds of survival are very high.  Note that we have no data regarding hospitalizations, permanent lung damage, or prolonged sickness.  Less than 5% of COVID deaths are from healthy people under the age of 65.

If you're over the age of 65, you should be quaking in your boots.  1 out of every 50 New York city residents over the age of 65 has died.

That isn't infected people, that's total New Yorkers.

Also using he numbers from above:  To reach herd immunity, 3 times this amount would die.  That would be one out of 16 people over the age of 65.

Interesting synopsis, and I'm on the wrong side of 65.  I am in decent shape though, not great shape, but a lot better than most my age.  But, if I get it, the wife gets it too and I do worry about her.  She has no health issues except her hips, which are doing pretty well.

This place is "hopping" today, a good bit of traffic, the park is busy, folks are out and about.  I do fear a rebound.

Then you should be all for testing as many people as possible.  The more we test, the lower the death rate goes.  I said Trump should have championed widespread testing from the start for his own benefit, but you guys acted like I posted in ancient sanskrit.

Besides testing anyone with symptoms we should test hospital workers at least weekly if not daily

I would have thought we discussed this at length yesterday or maybe the day before

Testing just to test really doesnt tell much because its a point in time but hot spots should have extensive testing

Quick summary of the post above:


If you're over the age of 65, you should be quaking in your boots.  1 out of every 50 New York city residents over the age of 65 has died.

I find this a little hard to believe because there are aprox 950,000 NYC people 65 and above

divide that number by 50 and you get 19,000

considering total virus deaths in NYC is only 14,800 your number seems high

Did you read the post above?

Here's the sort version.

NYC looked at total deaths vs. total "normal" deaths this time of year, and, subtracting for Corona and other math: Actual deaths is more like 23000+.  Greater than 95% of deaths are are age 65+.  = 19,000.

nope I missed that I only know the certified deaths number the other is based on assumption so that explains the difference

assumption is not the right word.

Statistical analysis would be the better term.

For the heck of it --  If we remove those 5,000 deaths, it still means that 1 in 65 New Yorkers over the age of 65 has died from this virus.

Yikes.

its a good thing we dont run Texas like NYC 

In fact its a good thing NYC does not reflect the vast majority of this country