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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4074 on: May 20, 2020, 03:56:17 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 20, 2020, 03:38:24 PM
is that 123000 between now and June 13th or 123000 total deaths
Total, cumulative.
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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4075 on: May 20, 2020, 03:57:13 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 20, 2020, 03:14:17 PM
Michigan hit with 500 year flooding

https://news.yahoo.com/life-threatening-flood-submerges-central-172112468.html


wow
In NE Ohio we're getting much of the same.The creek behind my house was probably at the 2nd highest level that I've ever seen 
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4076 on: May 20, 2020, 03:58:59 PM »
Quote from: longhorn320 on May 20, 2020, 03:38:24 PM
is that 123000 between now and June 13th or 123000 total deaths
Total.

FYI I posted from that site a few weeks ago when their midpoint was about 111K by May 31. So far it looks good that we'll come in under that.

The 123K is not the midpoint of their analysis; it's actually the highest prediction of any of their models. So I wouldn't choose that as the right value. Averaging their models probably gets you to ~117K.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4077 on: May 20, 2020, 04:03:32 PM »
Well, that's a helluva lot less than 2 Million, but still, too many. CCP needs to pay.
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4078 on: May 20, 2020, 04:07:02 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 04:03:32 PM
Well, that's a helluva lot less than 2 Million, but still, too many. CCP needs to pay.
Yeah, and we won't be done with this thing for a long, long time.  If ever.  18 months from now the totals will be well over 123K.
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4079 on: May 20, 2020, 04:08:19 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 20, 2020, 03:56:17 PM
Total, cumulative.
We are at 94000 today so the projection says in 24 days the death count will increase by 29000 which is basically 6000 below out current trend

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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4080 on: May 20, 2020, 04:12:43 PM »
Florida reported 485 new cases and 3 deaths today. Both are on the downward trend. Partial re-opening was a little over two weeks ago, so we'll see how the rest of this week and next week shake out.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4081 on: May 20, 2020, 04:14:05 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on May 20, 2020, 04:07:02 PM
Yeah, and we won't be done with this thing for a long, long time.  If ever.  18 months from now the totals will be well over 123K.
Let's hope not pal. Hope is a good thing, but of course, it's not a plan.

We need a plan, rather than hoping for a vaccine or cure.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4082 on: May 20, 2020, 04:15:07 PM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on May 20, 2020, 03:58:59 PM
Total.

FYI I posted from that site a few weeks ago when their midpoint was about 111K by May 31. So far it looks good that we'll come in under that.

The 123K is not the midpoint of their analysis; it's actually the highest prediction of any of their models. So I wouldn't choose that as the right value. Averaging their models probably gets you to ~117K.
This is correct, I misread the summary.  If we have 24 days remaining at 950 per day you get 117,000 (about).

There were 1,552 reported yesterday.  The Sunday figures often are low and Monday compensates.

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4083 on: May 20, 2020, 04:18:36 PM »
The hopeful signs are that the doctors are rapidly learning how to treat severe cases, whereas they were shooting kind of blind early on.  The antibody development approach is at least promising, I think that is why the stock market is going up right now.  Some vaccine news it promising, if preliminary.  Our hospitals didn't get over run anywhere.  

Counter to that is whether many of us can maintain prudent personal habits for a long time.  And I worry that just one nursing home worker could become infections and nearly wipe the place out before it can be caught.
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4084 on: May 20, 2020, 05:34:20 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 20, 2020, 04:12:43 PM
Florida reported 485 new cases and 3 deaths today. Both are on the downward trend. Partial re-opening was a little over two weeks ago, so we'll see how the rest of this week and next week shake out.
Disney World is reopening so thats a plus
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4085 on: May 21, 2020, 07:21:21 AM »
Yesterday in GA was not good, 946 reported new cases.  The next few days might tell us this isn't working.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4086 on: May 21, 2020, 07:45:35 AM »
946 cases, out of how many tests?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4087 on: May 21, 2020, 08:20:39 AM »
The number of tests continues to rise of course.  I don't know how many tests were performed, or who got tested.  I guess medical personnel are being tested frequently, and then police etc., and then folks with symptoms.

The figure now is 403,000 tests total.  Supposedly, one can get a drive in test if one desires, and probably some worried folks are doing that for no good reason.


One news site says 50,000 tests were performed over the weekend.

But if most were medical personnel and police, etc., we would expect a lot of negatives.

The 946 figure is well above the 7 day moving average of about 650.

It could be a one day spike of course.  Monday often is a catch up day for Sunday.
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