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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4032 on: May 19, 2020, 06:17:32 PM »
in Europe, they use two meters as the expert opinion
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4033 on: May 19, 2020, 06:18:16 PM »
When a source lists "experts" it would be nice to know a bit more about this term

is it a large group of "experts"  is it one or two folks?

what are their qualifications and/or experience as an expert?

mostly, what is their agenda or who is paying them for their expertise?

I suppose I could be considered an expert in the field of Budweiser
Don't limit yourself my friend.  I'd be willing to bet that you are an expert in MANY kinds of bad beer!

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4034 on: May 19, 2020, 06:22:45 PM »
in Europe, they use two meters as the expert opinion
Yup, that's a little over 6 feet.  In Australia, they're using 1.5 meters, which is a little under 6 feet.

It's not arbitrary, though.  There's been study that indicates that staying beyond 1.8 meters reduces the likelihood of infectious spreading of airborne viruses.

It certainly doesn't guarantee you won't get sick, and I don't know a single person that believes standing 6 feet apart is anywhere near as effective as a hazmat suit.  It's a measurement that provides some protection from viral spreading, while still allowing people to go about their daily lives.

Here's an Australian article discussing it, one of many that are out there on the googletrons:
https://theconversation.com/coronavirus-why-should-we-stay-1-5-metres-away-from-each-other-134029


FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4035 on: May 19, 2020, 08:55:01 PM »
Don't limit yourself my friend.  I'd be willing to bet that you are an expert in MANY kinds of bad beer!
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4036 on: May 20, 2020, 08:38:19 AM »
Georgia reported new cases and deaths yesterday both on the 7 day moving average, which means things are flat in effect, for now.

I would think this would be of interest to folks in other states since GA "opened" first.  (Some states never shut down.)

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4037 on: May 20, 2020, 08:40:16 AM »
Are you tracking testing numbers too?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4038 on: May 20, 2020, 08:53:54 AM »
Testing numbers of course continue to go higher, I glance at them every so often, I don't think the specifics are relevant.  A person at risk can get tested today and get infected on the way home obviously.  Testing of exposed workers and those with mild symptoms is what's important, I think.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

GA has tested about 35,000 per million population.  US average is 38,000 per million.  I imagine quite a few are multiple tests of the same people (hospital workers).

Just running more tests obviously is not some panacea.  It is helpful of course to have testing readily available for those who need it.

GA is just above OH in deaths per million (reported).  (158 vs 147).  NY and NJ are well above a thousand deaths per million reported.

The total number of deaths in NYC, which should be a hard figure, is running 3x normal, and only about half that is accounted for by reported COVID deaths.  The suspicion is that NYC has quite a few more COVID deaths not reported as such.  They have almost 29,000 reported COVID deaths and potentially over 5,000 more unreported.

GA plus OH have about 3,400 deaths reported.  NY/NJ/CT is a real hot spot, I suspect travelers from Europe brought it in.


Honestbuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4039 on: May 20, 2020, 08:54:52 AM »
Georgia reported new cases and deaths yesterday both on the 7 day moving average, which means things are flat in effect, for now.

I would think this would be of interest to folks in other states since GA "opened" first.  (Some states never shut down.)
Well I am already seeing certain media outlets working to discredit the two “red” states data.  

Georgia and Florida appear to be doing well so far, especially in comparison to some blue states with smaller populations and much stricter lock down approaches- like Michigan. 
not surprising-in fact predictable. 
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4040 on: May 20, 2020, 08:56:45 AM »
Testing numbers of course continue to go higher, I glance at them every so often, I don't think the specifics are relevant.  A person at risk can get tested today and get infected on the way home obviously.  Testing of exposed workers and those with mild symptoms is what's important, I think.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

GA has tested about 35,000 per million population.  US average is 38,000 per million.  I imagine quite a few are multiple tests of the same people (hospital workers).

Just running more tests obviously is not some panacea.  It is helpful of course to have testing readily available for those who need it.

GA is just above OH in deaths per million (reported).  (158 vs 147).  NY and NJ are well above a thousand deaths per million reported.

The total number of deaths in NYC, which should be a hard figure, is running 3x normal, and only about half that is accounted for by reported COVID deaths.  The suspicion is that NYC has quite a few more COVID deaths not reported as such.  They have almost 29,000 reported COVID deaths and potentially over 5,000 more unreported.

GA plus OH have about 3,400 deaths reported.  NY/NJ/CT is a real hot spot, I suspect travelers from Europe brought it in.


I agree on this 100 percent. What I really want to see is some results on the antibody testing. I looked (not deep) and really couldn't find much of anything on it.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4041 on: May 20, 2020, 09:05:02 AM »
There does appear to be a media effort to discredit "red states" and their plans.  In some reports, Georgia is ignored, or mentioned at the bottom as "not being far enough along to draw opinions".  Um ....

There also is some media effort to hype what has happened as well.  Duh.

There is a media war locally between the governor and the AJC (paper) and others here in the media.  Kemp hypes good figures and the media tries to hype the bad.

Go figure.

I'm trying to use the AJC numbers as the State reporting has been "errant" at times and the AJC says they are sifting out the bad reportage.


utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4042 on: May 20, 2020, 09:07:52 AM »
I don;t think antibody testing is very widespread yet, and at least one version of it seems to be deemed unreliable by the medical/scientific community. 

Ultimately, a reliable and widely available antibody test will be the real key to helping open up and make people feel safer-- that is, of course, IFF some reasonable amount of immunity is conferred.


Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4043 on: May 20, 2020, 09:29:28 AM »
The recent news about AB generation using a treatment is encouraging and suggests we do acquire immunity to some extent.

AB testing of a rep sample of the population would be interesting to see.  You might need 5,000 people tested.


FearlessF

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"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

bayareabadger

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4045 on: May 20, 2020, 10:04:27 AM »
Well I am already seeing certain media outlets working to discredit the two “red” states data. 

Georgia and Florida appear to be doing well so far, especially in comparison to some blue states with smaller populations and much stricter lock down approaches- like Michigan.
not surprising-in fact predictable.
So a two-pronged reply to this.

There's no doubt there would be some that were skeptical and poking at the data. In our modern world, someone somewhere is skeptical of everything. It wasn't long ago we said we should be skeptical of politicians. We were skeptical of hospitals. We were skeptical of doctors. Why would we not in turn be at least somewhat skeptical of politicians who have a lot of reputation riding on this looking good?

I mean, Georgia produced some data where April 30 came before May 1 so the lines showed a pretty downward trend. That seems like it would warrant at least a little side eye. 

Now, at this point, some of the more shrill concerns seems like doubling down. If a spike doesn't happen, people will hold it against those outlets. If it does, the chances people who didn't want to think about it aren't likely to suddenly say "why was the media wrong on it?" or at least if they do, it'll be a crock. 

In the end, we'll be able to find something that was wrong because there's so much media, it rarely speaks in one voice and relatively often says at least some capacity of both sides of an issue (even if one feels one side is short shrift).

 

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