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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2072 on: April 17, 2020, 09:44:53 AM »
As the protocol for reporting cases is evolving, I don't think the relative figures are reliable.  The same is true for cause of death reportage.



Agreed.  They're really no more useful than being "directionally correct" and even then, maybe not so much.

But we're going to be basing our reopening of the country on those numbers, so.... well.... there you have it.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2073 on: April 17, 2020, 10:10:31 AM »
Unfortunately we can't know how many of these cases were from something else.Where either the patient didn't want to risk it or that decision was made for them - even if they had another injury/affliction.Please keep posting your findings.3.8 could be also from the week end spike that utee talked about.But that still jumps out and demands attention
Here's the definition: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-deaths-confirmed-probable-daily-04142020.pdf

Quote
A death is classified as confirmed if the decedent was a New York City resident who had a positive SARS CoV-2 (COVID-19) laboratory test.

A death is classified as probable if the decedent was a New York City resident (NYC resident or residency pending) who had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent.

A death is classified as not known to be confirmed or probable COVID-19 if the decedent died in New York City (NYC resident or residency pending) had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) and the death certificate does not list COVID-19 or an equivalent as a cause of death.

As new information becomes available, some deaths previously classified as probable or not known to be confirmed or probable COVID-19 may be reclassified as laboratory-confirmed
Those 3.8K were "probable" as in the coroner had enough circumstantial evidence to list COVID-19 on the death certificate.

It's not the weekend spike. 


MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2074 on: April 17, 2020, 10:26:56 AM »
Just had to cancel some work previously booked.Was going to have Kitchen Cabinets and countertops refaced/replaced.They called this morning.But because of containment of the Kitchen/Dinette with visqueen and drop cloths I pushed back installment into July.Unless there was HEPA filtration and HAZMET cleaning I'm not willing to roll the dice.At least in July I'll know more and can open up windows and the sliding glass door.Wished I did this with a friend like I initially wanted to
« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 12:10:17 PM by MrNubbz »
“Did I hear God call me an idiot? ”― William P. Young

847badgerfan

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U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2076 on: April 17, 2020, 12:13:15 PM »
AS tests are in short supply, "we" shouldn't test people who rather obviously have the disease when the course of treatment would not change as a result.

Influenza deaths could be down because of distancing etc.

One hopes anyway.
especially if you've already tested positive and know just want to know if you've recovered, which some boob has determined you need two of these unreliable as hell tests

the testing is BullSh!# to me.

it's been said to be unreliable - strike 1
what do you do differently if tested or not?  - nothing?  You're sick, have symptoms.  Stay home.  Try not to make anyone else sick - strike 2
you can be counted as having COVID or dies from COVID if you were tested or not - then who cares - strike 3
Seems to me there are tons of folks with symptoms that are being tested, many multiple times
3.4 million tests - 666,000 positive
I understand these tests and numbers can project how bad things will get and how many hospital beds and ventilators we might need.  I guess that is very important
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2077 on: April 17, 2020, 12:15:21 PM »
Just had to cancel some work previously booked.Was going to have Kitchen Cabinets and countertops refaced/replaced.They called this morning.But because of containment of the Kitchen/Dinette with visqueen and drop cloths I pushed back installment into July.Unless there was HEPA filtration and HAZMET cleaning I'm not willing to roll the dice.At least in July I'll know more and can open up windows and the sliding glass door.Wished I did this with a friend like I initially wanted to
the kitchen is fine

save the money for football trips in the fall
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2078 on: April 17, 2020, 12:40:04 PM »
They are if one assumes recovery after 14 days of course you have to consider any deaths in that number


But that is not how they are arriving at the number of recovered. To be considered recovered, you have to have 2 consecutive negative tests at least 24 hours apart. If one cannot get tested, they cannot be considered "Recovered". That is the rub. 

Honestbuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2079 on: April 17, 2020, 12:44:10 PM »
Yes- the data is hard to count on from here or anywhere.  

You rarely see Influenza as the cause of death/ more often complications from Influenza.  Also- if I understand it correctly insurance payments to hospitals can be substantially higher and more likely if it is ruled Covid-19.
So now there is financial motivation to code it that way. 

So when the data is suspect- that leaves emotion and intuition for decision making.  General not the best and almost always polarizing. 
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
-Mark Twain

NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2080 on: April 17, 2020, 12:44:29 PM »
Hmmm, well first and foremost, I'm happy your sister and brother-in-law are OK. That stands out far more than how they count in large-scale statistics. God bless.

I wonder what pool the "recovered" draws from. Maybe the high-end hospitalizations?
Thank you. They are doing fine but are still "distancing" themselves as much as possible to avoid any possibility of infecting anyone. 

As too the pool of recovered, again from what I have read/heard, a person that was tested positive for the virus, then has to have 2 consecutive tests that result as negative. And as testing is at a premium, not a lot of people are getting access to the test if they are not showing symptoms. Obviously, someone that is coming off of quarantine and NOT showing symptoms, will be denied testing. 

But it does beg the question, how did 50 some thousand get additional testing? I wish I knew. 

MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2081 on: April 17, 2020, 12:57:17 PM »
the kitchen is fine

save the money for football trips in the fall
Wish I could I'm over a barrel as the have the down payment
“Did I hear God call me an idiot? ”― William P. Young

NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2082 on: April 17, 2020, 01:00:31 PM »
Yes- the data is hard to count on from here or anywhere. 

You rarely see Influenza as the cause of death/ more often complications from Influenza.  Also- if I understand it correctly insurance payments to hospitals can be substantially higher and more likely if it is ruled Covid-19.
So now there is financial motivation to code it that way.

So when the data is suspect- that leaves emotion and intuition for decision making.  General not the best and almost always polarizing.
And I think this is helping to drive the fear people are having. I have talked with people that say they will NOT come out of their house until a vaccine is available. I told them that could take well over a year, they didn't care. 

But that is also leading to people willing to suffer through other medical issues instead of "risking" going to the hospital. I have heard stories that people in NY City had died of heart attacks at home because they were afraid to go the hospital. 

My point is that these bogus numbers are causing irrational fear in people that may be leading to other deaths. 

In general, the CDC estimates that about 50-60 MILLION Americans contract the seasonal flu every year. Does anyone believe ALL of those people are tested for the flu? No. In reality, they only test a few hundred thousand people a year. The 50-60 Million is extrapolated from the number tested and taking into account the number of people that may get the flu, but never see a doctor and so on. So when the mortality rate of the flu is advertised to be around 0.1%, people feel pretty safe that even if the get the flu, they will most likely survive.

But now we are getting numbers from the CDC saying that only about 600,000 people have gotten the Covid virus and of those, 30 some thousand have died. That puts the mortality rate somewhere around 2% or 20 times that of the seasonal flu. THAT scares the crap out of people that simply look at the headlines and don't dive into the numbers. 

If the government/CDC did the same extrapolation for Covid as they do the seasonal flu, my guess is that the number of actual infections would be in the several millions which in turn would bring the mortality rate more in line with the seasonal flu. And who knows, maybe after this is pretty much over and the numbers come in, they will. But that does nothing to help to quell the fears of people today. 

Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2083 on: April 17, 2020, 01:01:56 PM »
how have I not seen this before? :043:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L3tnH4FGbd0

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2084 on: April 17, 2020, 01:03:55 PM »
Yeah, the wife and I had the flu a few years back and never reported anything.  We just waited and got better.

It was pretty bad though, clearly not a cold.  I don't know what numbers on this will be accurate, maybe antibody testing of a rep sample.  Maybe we discover many of us already had it and didn't notice.

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2085 on: April 17, 2020, 01:05:26 PM »
Wish I could I'm over a barrel as the have the down payment
get Moose and Rocko from Caddyshack to lend a hand
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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