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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2044 on: April 16, 2020, 06:29:35 PM »
I wouldn't focus at all on the recovered numbers. 

I see three numbers that are key:


  • Deaths. No matter what you look at regarding test rates, test availability, etc, that's the one that's really hard to falsify. (That said, NY just added ~3.8K on Tuesday for people who died at home rather than in a hospital).
  • Cases. This of course is much more dependent on test rates, availability, etc. So it's not especially reliable. But assuming that day-to-day testing protocols aren't changing TOO quickly, it gives you a rough idea of growth of the infected population.
  • Serious/critical cases. This is actually reported here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries  -- I'm not sure how accurate it is, unfortunately. But if you are trying to understand which confirmed cases are most likely to result in deaths, tracking that might be meaningful. 

But "recovered" cases seems to be a completely useless number for the reasons discussed... 

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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2045 on: April 16, 2020, 06:37:05 PM »
Quote from: Mdot21 on April 16, 2020, 06:16:53 PM
Only 3,000 dead, but the big 3 mobile phone service providers in China have lost 21 million subscribers since this thing broke out. Hmmmm.
18 million disappeared and took their cell phones with them
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2046 on: April 16, 2020, 06:46:42 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on April 16, 2020, 06:37:05 PM
18 million disappeared and took their cell phones with them

In China, if the government murders 20 million citizens because they were trying to leak info about the global pandemic spreading from their home country, are those considered "COVID deaths" or nah?
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2047 on: April 16, 2020, 06:53:07 PM »
I haven't trusted China's numbers since I started following this thing. They're clearly bullshit.
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2048 on: April 16, 2020, 07:06:24 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on April 16, 2020, 06:46:42 PM
In China, if the government murders 20 million citizens because they were trying to leak info about the global pandemic spreading from their home country, are those considered "COVID deaths" or nah?
not in China, but the USA might add them to our numbers
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2049 on: April 16, 2020, 07:14:03 PM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 16, 2020, 06:53:07 PM
I haven't trusted China's numbers since I started following this thing. They're clearly bullshit.
China, Japan, Russia, Iran.  All pure fantasy.

Hopefully Japan is coming around now that the Olympics are officially canceled.  I guess we'll see.
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2050 on: April 16, 2020, 11:59:37 PM »
Not sure if this was already posted?  The guidelines, milestones, and phases, for "Opening Up America Again"

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/?fbclid=IwAR2K2jlBPzoisIKRf0IN5aFBfPBmUz35NyYkDzhtDvsVcYZw1RmtR5_tANg#phase-one

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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2051 on: April 17, 2020, 12:15:27 AM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on April 16, 2020, 06:29:35 PM
  • That said, NY just added ~3.8K on Tuesday for people who died at home rather than in a hospital
Unfortunately we can't know how many of these cases were from something else.Where either the patient didn't want to risk it or that decision was made for them - even if they had another injury/affliction.Please keep posting your findings.3.8 could be also from the week end spike that utee talked about.But that still jumps out and demands attention
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bayareabadger

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2052 on: April 17, 2020, 12:15:45 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on April 16, 2020, 11:59:37 PM
Not sure if this was already posted?  The guidelines, milestones, and phases, for "Opening Up America Again"

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/?fbclid=IwAR2K2jlBPzoisIKRf0IN5aFBfPBmUz35NyYkDzhtDvsVcYZw1RmtR5_tANg#phase-one


Hmmmm, those Proposed State or Regional Gating Criteria read as strict to me.

On the downside, they incentivize those downward trajectories, so we'll get a mess of counter questioning contrarianism soon enough.
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bayareabadger

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2053 on: April 17, 2020, 12:17:14 AM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 12:15:27 AM
Unfortunately we can't know how many of these cases were from something else.Where either the patient didn't want to risk it or that decision was made for them - even if they had another injury/affliction.Please keep posting your findings.3.8 could be also from the week end spike that utee talked about.But that still jumps out and demands attention
The decision here is to stay home and try to ride it out?
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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2054 on: April 17, 2020, 12:19:07 AM »
Quote from: utee94 on April 16, 2020, 07:14:03 PM
Hopefully Japan is coming around now that the Olympics are officially canceled.  I guess we'll see.
You'd think being intelligent and forward thinking they would not play loose with the numbers.Unless they don't want to induce panic on their very densely populated Island
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2055 on: April 17, 2020, 12:21:05 AM »
Quote from: MrNubbz on April 17, 2020, 12:19:07 AM
You'd think being intelligent and forward thinking they would not play loose with the numbers.Unless they don't want to induce panic on their very densely populated Island

Yeah that might be... bad... for them.

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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2056 on: April 17, 2020, 12:26:51 AM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 17, 2020, 12:17:14 AM
The decision here is to stay home and try to ride it out?
I got nothing,I may try that if the situation unfolded.According to a friends daughter - an ER nurse her hospital has plenty of beds.He I trust and pretty certain he was being blunt.But I was just watching PBS/BBC news and just walking into that quarentine unit-from the looks of it - would scare a stronger man than I to death.I'd prolly trust to providence and my own exertions for survival - hope it doesn't get to that for anyone
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #2057 on: April 17, 2020, 12:32:42 AM »
Quote from: bayareabadger on April 17, 2020, 12:15:45 AM
Hmmmm, those Proposed State or Regional Gating Criteria read as strict to me.

On the downside, they incentivize those downward trajectories, so we'll get a mess of counter questioning contrarianism soon enough.

You anticipating accusations of "gaming the data" just to open up the economy?  Could be, I suppose. 
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