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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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SFBadger96

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1890 on: April 15, 2020, 11:44:37 AM »
Intervening to stop a financial free fall is a good idea because lots of blameless people pay the price for that free fall and the chaos that comes with it isn't justifiable when our government is capable of stopping it. How the clean-up is managed says more about what we value and the righteousness of the cause.

The grants/loans is a bit of a false dichotomy. As I understand it, many of the small business "loans" don't have to be repaid; grants by another name.

A financial crisis like this one isn't the "fault" of the "business community," nor those they employ, nor those who profit from/support them, e.g., the myriad smaller businesses that they and their employees rely on or buy from.

We do not live in a simple, barter economy. We live in an interconnected and complex economy. The idea that the "free market" will solve all ills isn't fundamentally wrong, but it misunderstands how the free market solves those ills.

The guillotine was the free market at work in France. Communism was the free market at work in czarist Russia. The Nazis were the free market at work in Germany. Slavery was the free market at work in the colonies and United States. Those are versions of the free market I would prefer to avoid, if possible.

Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1891 on: April 15, 2020, 11:45:29 AM »
I'm not sure many folks would be interested in buying up assets of a bankrupt airline or jet engine maker at this point.  Down the road, yes, but in the interim ...
Are you kidding me? Private equity and people like Buffett are probably chomping at the bit. When the hell else could they buy up primo assets like that for pennies on the dollar? 

Buffett’s famous line- “Be scared when people are greedy, and be greedy when people are scared.”

Berkshire’s got $130 billion in cash. These companies should go to Buffett first and ask for a loan in exchange for repayment with low interest plus stock warrants like BoA did in the last corporate bailout frenzy before they go to Uncle Sam. 

Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1892 on: April 15, 2020, 11:51:59 AM »
I mean, are you referring specifically to what's happening RIGHT NOW?

Seems a little harsh to judge a business as a failure, when the government has forcibly shut it down, don't you think?
I agree with your last part. 

But Boeing, GE, and American were in major trouble before any of this happened. Especially GE & Boeing. I’m afraid they’ll be using this as an excuse to get a bailout- when they might’ve needed it regardless of this happening. 

And as far as the airlines go, over the last 9 years the 5 largest airlines combined exhausted 96% of their free cash flow on stock repurchases. That is just terrible management. And why did those executive teams do that? They did it for one reason and one reason only- to pump the stock price up to juice their own compensation up. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1893 on: April 15, 2020, 12:09:05 PM »
The immediate impact to our economy would be devastating.  That is what folks would like to avoid.


847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1894 on: April 15, 2020, 12:22:52 PM »
So, coronavirus?

Lots of government policy being discussed here. I think there might be a spot for that around here.
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Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1895 on: April 15, 2020, 12:30:59 PM »
The immediate impact to our economy would be devastating.  That is what folks would like to avoid.
Not really. It would really only be devastating to the overpaid executive teams whose compensation is directly tied to share price- and to shareholders- which in large part are owned by hedge funds, private equity, and billionaires. 

Take American for example. The top 10 owners combined own 57% of all shares. All those 10 are all hedge funds, private equity, and multi-billion dollar holding companies. These are not “little” people. These are rich people. So basically any kind of bailout would be Uncle Sam propping them up to bail out the paper assets of rich people. The workers at American wouldn’t get fired, it’d go through a packaged bankruptcy, debt would get restructured, the company and it’s assets would be re-organized/sold and for the most part workers would get to keep their pensions and jobs. 

Again, I refer you to this video: 


https://youtu.be/qAt7Rg1u2l8

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1896 on: April 15, 2020, 12:35:52 PM »
The employees wouldn't notice being unemployed?

I think it would be devastating.  I'm sure others think otherwise.

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1897 on: April 15, 2020, 12:46:40 PM »
I mean, are you referring specifically to what's happening RIGHT NOW?

Seems a little harsh to judge a business as a failure, when the government has forcibly shut it down, don't you think?



it is a little harsh
I'm just not in favor of taxpayer money going to "save" companies that are poorly managed

allow the unhealthy cruise lines, hotel chains and airlines to fail
don't bail them ALL out
same with small businesses, even local restaurants.

If they can't survive 4-6 weeks of interrupted business, maybe they weren't in good shape in the first place.  Can they open a drive-thru or carry out service and find a way during rough times?

do they have money set aside for rainy days or tough times?

I know some businesses in this area that are using this as an excuse to close shop.  They were failing in January 1st, but trying to hang on.

IMO, we have WAY too many banks and credit unions these days - obviously it's an easy profitable business  
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1898 on: April 15, 2020, 12:54:12 PM »
Restaurants nearly always are on the edge, all of them, other than major national chains.

Large companies don't want to retain a large cash position for obvious reasons.

I've been in the restaurant business (to a slight degree) and it's rough.  My guess is around here we'll lose at least half our restaurants, probably more.  The workers are taking the brunt of it.


utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1899 on: April 15, 2020, 01:01:42 PM »
Sure.  I grew up in the restaurant business, my family owned one for ten years.  It's definitely rough.

And it's a lot rougher when the government makes your business illegal.

So again, seems pretty harsh to judge ALL businesses for failing, when the government forced you to fail.

CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1900 on: April 15, 2020, 01:03:05 PM »
Just for the record, my thoughts about bailing out the businesses that are "too big to let fail" were in the context of the 2008 "crisis," not this one.
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1901 on: April 15, 2020, 01:04:18 PM »
it is a little harsh
I'm just not in favor of taxpayer money going to "save" companies that are poorly managed

allow the unhealthy cruise lines, hotel chains and airlines to fail
don't bail them ALL out
same with small businesses, even local restaurants.

If they can't survive 4-6 weeks of interrupted business, maybe they weren't in good shape in the first place.  Can they open a drive-thru or carry out service and find a way during rough times?


do they have money set aside for rainy days or tough times?

I know some businesses in this area that are using this as an excuse to close shop.  They were failing in January 1st, but trying to hang on.

IMO, we have WAY too many banks and credit unions these days - obviously it's an easy profitable business 

If dive-thru or carry-out were viable business models for ALL restaurants, don't you think ALL restaurants would already be doing that?

It's not, and they aren't. 

Anyway, I certainly agree with CD.  I expect to see at least half of restaurants in my area fail and not reopen.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1902 on: April 15, 2020, 01:11:33 PM »
Our local wine bar is struggling. We've been trying to give them as much business as we can (buying bottles and charcuterie carry out since we can't go in there and drink). They have a wine club (2 bottles from various wineries curated by them, 3 times a year), and when my wife was in there last Friday she chatted with one of the owners who said that they might not have been able to survive long without the wine club profits as our most recent shipment was just made available. 

I could do without most of our local restaurants, but if the wine club closes, we'll be extremely sad. That was where I proposed. That was where we were legally married. It's been a big part of our romantic lives ever since we met. 

So I'm trying to do what I can to increase my business there, even beyond what we normally would do.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1903 on: April 15, 2020, 01:14:15 PM »
The higher end restaurants can't manage with carry out, at all.  Their dishes don't make sense to package up to take home, to me.  And, they are losing HUGELY on alcohol sales.  The ones in between are trying, but largely not doing anything like the business they were.  The low end places are doing pretty well, as is Kroger et al.

It's a brutal business always running close to the edge.  I know the change in tax write offs was the death nell of the place I had a one percent share in.  It took a few years but the writing was on the wall.  It's one thing to have some couples come and spend say $75 for a meal and quite another to have a business group come and drop several thousand on an expense account.

We're getting take out  more often from next door and the other place, but I am used to cooking dinner.  We would dine out maybe twice a week.  I noticed even for lunch I was often dropping $40-50.

 

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