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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1876 on: April 15, 2020, 01:18:41 AM »
airlines just got their first wave of bailout money available to them. $25 billion total. American Airlines is taking $5.8 billion.

First $100 million is a grant
Everything after $100mil- 70% doesn't need to be repaid, 30% has to be repaid at low-interest rates
No layoffs allowed before Sept. 30th
Treasury gets stock warrants equal to 3%

I'm not thrilled with the idea of the government bailing out airlines. At least they'll be getting 30% back with interest, can't lay people off, and they get the stock warrants. Airlines were looking for straight up grant, no repayments, no stock warrants.

One has to wonder if the major airlines would even need any bailouts right now had the morons running these companies not spent NINETY-SIX percent of their free cash flow on buybacks over the last 9 years. That's a true statement. 96% of their cash. On buying their own stock. Insane.

I'm kind of with this guy on this- who is a billionaire himself-


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qAt7Rg1u2l8
Anytime the government is spending hundreds of billions, you can bet that the well-connected/big campaign donors are going to get their hands on a lot of it.  The only way to keep that from happening is for the government to not spend so much.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1877 on: April 15, 2020, 07:20:36 AM »
A company these days has to be very careful about building up a large cash position for obvious reasons.  The alternatives are to spend on new equipment, which they have done, increase the dividend massively, buy back stock, or reduce debt.  Reducing debt when interest rates for them are probably 1-2% seems imprudent relative to buying back stock if they are paying a 3% dividend, for example.  If they all operate this way (and they did) they know they can rely on government to bail them out, huh.

A problem is that companies like banks and airlines are "too big to let fail" which is a flaw in a free market system (letting one fail would be tough but if they all go down it is pretty catastrophic).  The idea is to get them over this "brief" hump and return to normal, or so one hopes.  

Buying back stock is a good decision IFF your stock price goes up steadily over time.

Honestbuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1878 on: April 15, 2020, 08:16:51 AM »
I will say I am extremely proud of the employees at the bank I work at. 

Many people worked through the night to process/underwrite the PPP loans for hundreds of small businesses.  Everyone is trying to beat the money running out.  
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1879 on: April 15, 2020, 08:56:35 AM »
small businesses get loans

big businesses get grants
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CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1880 on: April 15, 2020, 10:15:05 AM »
A company these days has to be very careful about building up a large cash position for obvious reasons.  The alternatives are to spend on new equipment, which they have done, increase the dividend massively, buy back stock, or reduce debt.  Reducing debt when interest rates for them are probably 1-2% seems imprudent relative to buying back stock if they are paying a 3% dividend, for example.  If they all operate this way (and they did) they know they can rely on government to bail them out, huh.

A problem is that companies like banks and airlines are "too big to let fail" which is a flaw in a free market system (letting one fail would be tough but if they all go down it is pretty catastrophic).  The idea is to get them over this "brief" hump and return to normal, or so one hopes. 

Buying back stock is a good decision IFF your stock price goes up steadily over time.
Why are they too big to let fail?
If they go bankrupt, then they reorganize their finances or they are liquidated.  Either way, their assets don't just disappear.
Bailing out bad or imprudent actors encourages more of the same actions.  Increases the chances of having to make more bailouts in the future.
Encourages populist demagoguery (but I repeat myself) too.
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Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1881 on: April 15, 2020, 10:27:19 AM »
Why are they too big to let fail?
If they go bankrupt, then they reorganize their finances or they are liquidated.  Either way, their assets don't just disappear.
Bailing out bad or imprudent actors encourages more of the same actions.  Increases the chances of having to make more bailouts in the future.
Encourages populist demagoguery (but I repeat myself) too.
Yup. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1882 on: April 15, 2020, 10:30:52 AM »
If they fail en masse, the ripples effect would be enormous through the economy.  Yes, others might pick up the pieces down the road, but it would take time, and those others might not know how to run an airline or have the right pieces to do so.

The System can manage ONE airline going under, but not all of them at the same time.  You'd have GE going under and probably Boeing as a result coupled with massive unemployment at the same time which would ripple to other businesses.


MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1883 on: April 15, 2020, 10:43:21 AM »
Why are they too big to let fail?
I agree,during the 2008 financial crisis AIG(Gov't Insurance) fell under this they ran their company into the ground.And they were rewarded by the Feds with money from you and I.In any semblance of a a decent/honorable society they would have been allowed to fail and probably face jail time.What happened next shredded any illusions of justice.Turns out the BBC secretlyfollowed the President,CEO and the rest of the den of Thieves over to a Swiis/Austrian Ski resort where they proceeded to practice social distancing and jubilantly punished themselves.We're not in Kansas anymore-sadly and down the line there will be repercussions
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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1884 on: April 15, 2020, 10:54:42 AM »
small businesses get loans

big businesses get grants
I recall a Black Guy on TV one time saying - if I get Gov't money it's welfare.If the suits get it's a subsidy
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Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1885 on: April 15, 2020, 11:14:07 AM »
If they fail en masse, the ripples effect would be enormous through the economy.  Yes, others might pick up the pieces down the road, but it would take time, and those others might not know how to run an airline or have the right pieces to do so.

The System can manage ONE airline going under, but not all of them at the same time.  You'd have GE going under and probably Boeing as a result coupled with massive unemployment at the same time which would ripple to other businesses.
Yeah, I don’t buy this argument. Last go round, the banks actually had to be bailed out. Banks are too intertwined and integral to the system to just let go under. It would’ve been pandemonium- run on the banks, massive credit freezes- it could’ve been disasterous.

Airlines, cruise ships, GE, and Boeing are not.

And The one airline that is really in serious trouble is American, and that’s because it’s executive team loaded up on debt and exhausted literally all of it’s cash on stock repurchases. Why? Because they thought the good times were always going to be and the interest on the debt was cheap- the idiot CEO said so himself in a letter he released to shareholders- and because he and his executive teams compensation is tied to the stock. Pump the stock price up- and him and his executive teams compensation goes way up. You can’t have executives compensation tied to stock price- it flat out encourages them across the board to sell out tomorrow for today in order for executive class to make more $ today. Executive compensation for publicly traded companies should always be tied to the bottom line. Period.

GE and Boeing were already on the brink of going under before this due to horrible executive teams running those companies into the ground. Boeing is a joke. They booked $400 billion in sales on a plane that doesn’t work and isn’t safe. GE & Boeing & American Airlines can go through packaged bankruptcies and private companies, other public companies, and private equity groups that are run properly with great executive teams and that are flush with cash- would buy up those companies and assets. 

They can call Warren Buffett and get a loan. He’s got $130 billion in cash. They don’t need tax payers to give them a handout. Look at what happened the last go round. 5.1 million families kicked out of their homes. Who bailed those people out? No one. And that number could be WAY worse this time around. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1886 on: April 15, 2020, 11:16:54 AM »
I'm not sure many folks would be interested in buying up assets of a bankrupt airline or jet engine maker at this point.  Down the road, yes, but in the interim ...


FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1887 on: April 15, 2020, 11:26:42 AM »
F 'em all

any business, bank or otherwise that fails, should be allowed to fail.

most times it's a result of poor decisions, those should not be rewarded

and when I say all of them I mean it.  That also goes for farmers in my area.  The Farm aid crisis in the 80's was rough, but my friends and neighbors made some poor decisions along with their bankers.

handouts from the American taxpayer need to stop

but, obviously I'm not an expert in this area
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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1888 on: April 15, 2020, 11:42:06 AM »
You don't need to be an expert to make an honest/accurate observation........specially during CFB season
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #1889 on: April 15, 2020, 11:44:25 AM »
F 'em all

any business, bank or otherwise that fails, should be allowed to fail.

most times it's a result of poor decisions, those should not be rewarded

and when I say all of them I mean it.  That also goes for farmers in my area.  The Farm aid crisis in the 80's was rough, but my friends and neighbors made some poor decisions along with their bankers.

handouts from the American taxpayer need to stop

but, obviously I'm not an expert in this area
I mean, are you referring specifically to what's happening RIGHT NOW? 

Seems a little harsh to judge a business as a failure, when the government has forcibly shut it down, don't you think?



 

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