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Yeah I think he IMHE model is predicting a total of 2.7K or so, and most of those will be coming over the next 2-3 weeks.  It's also possible we'll just continue under their forecasted trajectory.  Wouldn't that be nice?

Hard to believe we will go from 278 to 2700 in three weeks

I think that projection is a tad high

Hard to believe we will go from 278 to 2700 in three weeks

I think that projection is a tad high

Well that's the nature of exponential growth.

But they're still applying exponential assumptions to something that might not actually be exponential.  Most major cities in Texas were already shutting down schools as of 3/13.  Social distancing orders, business shut-downs, and the like, started up over the following week.  So we're 3-4 weeks past the point when exposure was far more likely, than it was in later days.  If we're not seeing a large peak in hospitalizations right now, 3-4 weeks after exposure, then I'm not sure we'll see them at all.

If your R0 is exactly 1 then it won't appear to be exponential. 

We really have no idea what a true R0 is for this thing yet.  We likely won't ever, but a year from now we'll have some reasonable estimates.

Anyway, I'm not certain the growth assumptions in this model are appropriate for Texas, and I'd be happy for the death toll to be significantly lower.

I would note that hydrogen peroxide (3%) is pretty effective against pathogens, many of which are anaerobes.  It doesn't stink and it won't bleach a shirt or whatever (at least not right away).  It likely is less effective than soap against a virus.  You can even use it as mouthwash, though it tastes metallic.

Soap is preferred against viruses.  We might all find ourselves getting sick less often after this ...

My understanding is that's only true of certain virii, of which this is one. Soap dissolved the outer protein layer of the virus, rendering it completely unable to cause harm. However, there are other types of virii which aren't based upon this type of protein outer layer, and I believe soap is basically ineffective or minimally effective as it relates to those. 

That could be.  One advantage of soap and running water is the simple washing effect to remove contaminant, if not denature them.  What the alcohol cleaner doesn't kill is still there.

Yeah for sure, R0 is measured, it's not solely dependent on the nature of the virus itself.

Regardless of what it would have been before measures were taken, and what it might currently be, it appears that the model still isn't correct, at least in the state of Texas.  Currently it says we should be using something like 2.7K ICU beds for COVID patients, and in reality right now it's more like 1.2K.   This SHOULD translate into fewer deaths, 1-2 weeks from now ,than the model is currently predicting.

Sure hope so, that would be some good news indeed.



 

whew!