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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
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MrNubbz · « **Reply #14378 on:** July 26, 2021, 12:02:29 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on July 23, 2021, 09:50:58 AM

I was surprised that I was eligible for the vaccine earlier because of my "overweight" qualification.

I'm certainly not skinny or obese. 5'10" 195 lbs

Ruh-Roh I guess I qualify as a tub also,funny no one has taken to calling me fatty.A disagreeable asshole perhaps but never Fatty

MrNubbz · « **Reply #14379 on:** July 26, 2021, 12:17:03 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 23, 2021, 10:07:16 AM

I am technically still considered obese (very close to not being), but I have a defined waste and carry a lot of extra muscle on my frame. I don't have a "gut" anymore. My doctor does not consider me fat. I'm around 19 percent. My goal is 15 percent.

I have questioned alot of who or what decides about Cholestrol,weight,sugar(sometimes) etc.Years ago 250 cholesterol was borderline,then it was like 220 now below that.I know some vegans that are there @ 200 or below but then have to take supplements for protein or sumsuch.Alot of this IMHO is driven by Big Pharma who got big by all these suggestions.I eat alot of veggies/greens/fruits with about 4-6 oz of some meat serving per day some times vegetable proteins.But I don't march to their tune unless it's about sugar which seems borderline,also some Beer for probiotic reasons.And a sammich eaten over the sink - proper like

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #14380 on:** July 30, 2021, 04:29:39 PM »

My wife wants us to go back to indoor masking. I'm not a fan of that idea. So we're compromising; we're going back to indoor masking.

utee94 · « **Reply #14381 on:** July 30, 2021, 04:55:56 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 30, 2021, 04:29:39 PM

My wife wants us to go back to indoor masking. I'm not a fan of that idea. So we're compromising; we're going back to indoor masking.

Are you wearing properly fitted N95 masks? Because if not, I really don't get it?

Cincydawg · « **Reply #14382 on:** July 30, 2021, 05:03:37 PM »

I get this free NYT feed each morning:

Consider these Covid-19 mysteries:

In India — where the Delta variant was first identified and caused a huge outbreak — cases have plunged over the past two months. A similar drop may now be underway in Britain. There is no clear explanation for these declines.
In the U.S., cases started falling rapidly in early January. The decline began before vaccination was widespread and did not follow any evident changes in Americans’ Covid attitudes.
In March and April, the Alpha variant helped cause a sharp rise in cases in the upper Midwest and Canada. That outbreak seemed poised to spread to the rest of North America — but did not.
This spring, caseloads were not consistently higher in parts of the U.S. that had relaxed masking and social distancing measures (like Florida and Texas) than in regions that remained vigilant.
Large parts of Africa and Asia still have not experienced outbreaks as big as those in Europe, North America and South America.

How do we solve these mysteries? Michael Osterholm, who runs an infectious disease research center at the University of Minnesota, suggests that people keep in mind one overriding idea: humility.

“We’ve ascribed far too much human authority over the virus,” he told me.

‘Much, much milder’

Over the course of this pandemic, I have found one of my early assumptions especially hard to shake. It’s one that many other people seem to share — namely, that a virus always keeps spreading, eventually infecting almost the entire population, unless human beings take actions to stop it. And this idea does have crucial aspects of truth. Social distancing and especially vaccination can save lives.

But much of the ebb and flow of a pandemic cannot be explained by changes in human behavior. That was true with influenza a century ago, and it is true with Covid now. An outbreak often fizzles mysteriously, like a forest fire that fails to jump from one patch of trees to another.

The experience with Alpha in the Midwest this spring is telling:

Cincydawg · « **Reply #14383 on:** July 30, 2021, 05:04:11 PM »

Even Osterholm said that he had assumed the spring surge would spread from Michigan and his home state of Minnesota to the entire U.S. It did not. It barely spread to nearby Iowa and Ohio. Whatever the reasons, the pattern shows that the mental model many of us have — in which only human intervention can have a major effect on caseloads — is wrong.

Britain has become another example. The Delta variant is even more contagious than Alpha, and it seemed as though it might infect every unvaccinated British resident after it began spreading in May. Some experts predicted that the number of daily cases would hit 200,000, more than three times the country’s previous peak. Instead, cases peaked — for now — around 47,000, before falling below 30,000 this week.

“The current Delta wave in the U.K. is turning out to be much, much milder than we anticipated,” wrote David Mackie, J.P. Morgan’s chief European economist.

True, you can find plenty of supposed explanations, including the end of the European soccer tournament, the timing of school vacations and the Britain’s notoriously late-arriving summer weather, as Mark Landler, The Times’s London bureau chief, has noted. But none of the explanations seem nearly big enough to explain the decline, especially when you consider that India has also experienced a boom and bust in caseloads. India, of course, did not play in Europe’s soccer championship and is not known for cool June weather.

‘Rip through’

A more plausible explanation appears to be that Delta spreads very quickly at first and, for some unknown set of reasons, peters out long before a society has reached herd immunity. As Andy Slavitt, a former Covid adviser to President Biden, told me, “It seems to rip through really fast and infect the people it’s going to infect.” The most counterintuitive idea here is that an outbreak can fade even though many people remain vulnerable to Covid.

That’s not guaranteed to happen everywhere, and there probably will be more variants after Delta. Remember: Covid behaves in mysterious ways. But Americans should not assume that Delta is destined to cause months of rising caseloads. Nor should they assume that a sudden decline, if one starts this summer, fits a tidy narrative that attributes the turnaround to rising vaccination and mask wearing.

“These surges have little to do with what humans do,” Osterholm argues. “Only recently, with vaccines, have we begun to have a real impact.”

Cincydawg · « **Reply #14384 on:** July 30, 2021, 05:04:44 PM »

I don’t want anyone to think that Osterholm is making a nihilist argument. Human responses do make a difference: Masks and social distancing can slow the spread of the virus, and vaccination can end a pandemic.

The most important step has been the vaccination of many older people. As a result, total British deaths have risen only modestly this summer, while deaths and hospitalizations remain rarer in heavily vaccinated parts of the U.S. than in less vaccinated ones.

But Osterholm’s plea for humility does have policy implications. It argues for prioritizing vaccination over every other strategy. It also reminds us to avoid believing that we can always know which behaviors create risks.

That lesson has particular relevance to schools. Many of the Covid rules that school districts are enacting seem overly confident about what matters, Osterholm told me. Ventilation seems helpful, and masking children may be. Yet reopening schools unavoidably involves risk. The alternative — months more of lost learning and social isolation — almost certainly involves more risk and greater costs to children. Fortunately, school employees and teenagers can be vaccinated, and severe childhood Covid remains extremely rare.

We are certainly not powerless in the face of Covid. We can reduce its risks, just as we can reduce the risks from driving, biking, swimming and many other everyday activities. But we cannot eliminate them. “We’re not in nearly as much control as we think are,” Osterholm said.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #14385 on:** July 30, 2021, 05:07:31 PM »

Quote from: utee94 on July 30, 2021, 04:55:56 PM

Are you wearing properly fitted N95 masks? Because if not, I really don't get it?

She's apparently gone back to N95 at her office. That said, I think that's a red herring argument. While a standard cloth mask won't necessarily be perfect, especially in a long-duration interaction in a confined space with someone with the virus, I think it has some benefit to either prevent infection or reduce viral load that you're exposed to, which can help the body's immune system post-vacc handle it better.

When she wanted to do this I asked her (because I thought it might have been driven by her own fear and sentiments) what the doctors she works with are doing in their personal lives. They're about our age, healthy, and [obv] vaccinated. Apparently they've gone back to masking in public indoor spaces as well.

I still don't agree. So far I've seen that although there is a small possibility of breakthrough infection, it's HIGHLY unlikely to have anything other than mild symptoms for the vaccinated, especially for someone like me who is otherwise healthy and not yet getting solicited by the AARP for membership. So I'm not concerned even about infection.

But, pissing off my wife will have worse side effects than a breakthrough infection, so here we are.

utee94 · « **Reply #14386 on:** July 30, 2021, 05:19:57 PM »

Oh yeah, I certainly wouldn't go against my wife's wishes. Or at least, not on something as easy to do as mask-wearing.

Personally, I'll wait for someone to deliver THE SCIENCE that tells me that wearing a cloth or surgical mask provides statistically significant incremental protection above and beyond the vaccine, for either transmission of, or contraction of, the virus. Until that information comes forth, I'll continue to skip the masks, except of course inside buildings/businesses that require it.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #14387 on:** July 30, 2021, 05:26:24 PM »

I figure masks offer a modest level of protection for the person not infected near a person infected and contagious perhaps talking directly at them or sneezing/coughing.

We try and cover our mouth and turn away when we cough, but it doesn't always happen. And if someone is talking to you at close range you can expect some droplets likely get on your face, and a mask would mitigate that to a degree. I doubt an N95 is much more effective than a simple cloth covering. They aren't magic of course.

A fitted respirator would offer pretty good protection for the person wearing it.

How well do face masks protect against coronavirus? - Mayo Clinic

utee94 · « **Reply #14388 on:** July 30, 2021, 05:30:12 PM »

I make it a point not to get spit on by other people, so I'm comfortable with my conclusions.

And again, I'm not asking for proof that masks stop transmission. There's evidence of that. Not great evidence, not the great quantity of peer-reviewed studies that I thought we'd have 18 months into the pandemic, but at least some reasonable anecdotal evidence.

But I'm not asking for that. I'm asking for scientific evidence that there is a statistically significant improvement above and beyond the vaccine.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #14389 on:** July 30, 2021, 05:36:15 PM »

I'd opine the vaccine is many orders of magnitude more effective than any mask.

Distancing is probably pretty effective also. We're back on mask wearing in the elevator here now, as of today.

utee94 · « **Reply #14390 on:** July 30, 2021, 05:43:17 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 30, 2021, 05:36:15 PM

I'd opine the vaccine is many orders of magnitude more effective than any mask.

Distancing is probably pretty effective also. We're back on mask wearing in the elevator here now, as of today.

Indeed, as would I!

In somewhat related news, last night I went to the first work-related gathering with my team/peers since February of 2020. Also the first time I've met my "new" boss outside of video conferencing, and he took over last November.

We met for beers and food at Pinthouse Pizza. It was refreshing to be able to socialize with my team again.

We were eating and drinking, and not wearing masks, for the record.

FearlessF · « **Reply #14391 on:** July 30, 2021, 05:52:05 PM »

But much of the ebb and flow of a pandemic cannot be explained by changes in human behavior. That was true with influenza a century ago, and it is true with Covid now. An outbreak often fizzles mysteriously, like a forest fire that fails to jump from one patch of trees to another.

Much like climate change

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

MrNubbz

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

MrNubbz

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betarhoalphadelta

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utee94

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Cincydawg

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Cincydawg

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Cincydawg

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betarhoalphadelta

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utee94

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Cincydawg

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utee94

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Cincydawg

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utee94

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FearlessF

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