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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13846 on: May 24, 2021, 01:31:00 PM »
That is the difference of course relative to "run of the mill" pandemic disease vectors, and is why we've seen such dramatic spread and high number of deaths globally.

I think you have to  go back to 1918 to find something anywhere near as bad (and that was far worse of course).

When a thing doesn't happen for a century, it's not run of the mill.

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13847 on: May 24, 2021, 01:32:22 PM »
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MaximumSam

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13848 on: May 24, 2021, 01:36:01 PM »
I've read this pandemic is most similar to a pandemic in 1968. Until this pandemic I didn't know there was one in 1968.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13849 on: May 24, 2021, 01:38:15 PM »
I bet 50 years from now, folks will know there was one in 2020.

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MaximumSam

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13850 on: May 24, 2021, 01:39:37 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 24, 2021, 01:38:15 PM
I bet 50 years from now, folks will know there was one in 2020.


I'm sure they will, but don't think that matters much to the biology of the virus
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13851 on: May 24, 2021, 01:39:50 PM »
So assuming this is shown to be the result of gain-of-function research and was an accidental leak from that lab.

What then? 
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13852 on: May 24, 2021, 01:40:27 PM »
most aren't old enough to remember 1918.........

The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918, the deadliest in history, infected an estimated 500 million people worldwide—about one-third of the planet’s population—and killed an estimated 20 million to 50 million victims, including some 675,000 Americans.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13853 on: May 24, 2021, 01:41:04 PM »
The 1968 pandemic was caused by an influenza A (H3N2) virus comprised of two genes from an avian influenza A virus, including a new H3 hemagglutinin, but also contained the N2 neuraminidase from the 1957 H2N2 virus. It was first noted in the United States in September 1968. The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States. Most excess deaths were in people 65 years and older. The H3N2 virus continues to circulate worldwide as a seasonal influenza A virus. Seasonal H3N2 viruses, which are associated with severe illness in older people, undergo regular antigenic drift.


Flu kills somewhere between 20,000 and 60,000 in a "typical" year, so in 1968, we had a higher than usual figure by 40,000 to 80,000, pretty far short of ~600,000 who died with COVID, a figure which could be compared with zero in a "normal" year.

So, COVID is an order of magnitude worse using this metric.

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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13854 on: May 24, 2021, 01:41:18 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 24, 2021, 01:39:50 PM
So assuming this is shown to be the result of gain-of-function research and was an accidental leak from that lab.

What then?
accidents happen


let's try to make sure it doesn't happen again - ever
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13855 on: May 24, 2021, 01:42:10 PM »
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on May 24, 2021, 01:39:50 PM
So assuming this is shown to be the result of gain-of-function research and was an accidental leak from that lab.

What then?
Nothing then, obviously.  It would be good to know if true, and folks would be more likely to resist trying to enhance functionality in the future perhaps.
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13856 on: May 24, 2021, 01:45:55 PM »
I do tend to think it was an accidental release, but I also tend to think that the CCP covered it up for as long as they could, to hurt other countries - namely European ones, and ours. 

They certainly achieved that.
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MaximumSam

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13857 on: May 24, 2021, 01:48:43 PM »

Quote
Flu kills somewhere between 20,000 and 60,000 in a "typical" year, so in 1968, we had a higher than usual figure by 40,000 to 80,000, pretty far short of ~600,000 who died with COVID, a figure which could be compared with zero in a "normal" year.

So, COVID is an order of magnitude worse using this metric
Sure, though if you take into account the population has increased by roughly 125 million people, and more importantly for lethality, the number of elderly people is much higher now. I believe the IFR is about the same.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13858 on: May 24, 2021, 02:05:24 PM »
The population gain is from 200 to 330 million not an order of magnitude.  

That was an unusually lethal influenza year, roughly 60,000 excess deaths over expected, or if we adjust for population, about 100,000 excess deaths. 

 We all had apparently zero resistance to COVID 19.  600,000 > 100,000.  And of course 1968 is a while back.  I was a kid.

This is worse than 1968, but a lot.  1918 was worse than this, by a lot.



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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #13859 on: May 24, 2021, 02:07:45 PM »
The other interesting thing is the near collapse in influenza this past season.  So, being "careful" and washing our hands zapped the flu (vaccinations also were higher than usual).

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