Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

spread isn't a concern from the schools, so, doesn't matter if open or closed

doesnt matter to who?

Could the governor mandate that they all be open, or no?

I'm not sure, to be honest. 

I assume he has some legitimate emergency powers that can close things [maybe I'll learn differently through the recall efforts] for health & safety reasons, but it might not be possible for him to force individual districts to reopen for in-person learning.

some political reason, perhaps

not believing the science

I'm signed up for the first shot tomorrow.  Not sure if it's Pfizer or Moderna.  I wanted to get the J&J (despite the pause) but nobody around here offers it that I have found.  I decided that even though I already had COVID it won't hurt to get vaccinated.  A friend of mine from work just got out of the hospital (50ish YO) and was in for ~30+ days and almost died and may have to be on O2 from here on out.  I already convinced my wife (1st dose last week) and MIL (1st dose last week also).  

BTW I spent some time in the mid-west last week (Kansas attending a trade show in the metropolis of Salina) and they're still pretty much wearing masks etc.  Texas hardly anybody wearing masks, Oklahoma hardly anybody wearing masks.  

So, through December, there were 83.1 Million cases (22% reported). By now I'm guessing that 4.6 is up to 6 or 7. Let's say 6.5.

Why? Why would the ratio of reported to unreported change over that time?

Early in the pandemic, it made sense that the ratio of unreported to reported was high. COVID testing was basically nonexistent at the beginning so ONLY the symptomatic and hospitalized people got tested. Patients who suspected they had COVID were advised by doctors NOT to be tested because there weren't enough tests to go around.

As testing became more available, and as we started requiring testing for things such as getting on an airplane to travel, for engaging in certain industries [like competitive athletics], and when we could test anyone who wanted to be tested, you would expect the ratio to decrease.

Now you're claiming that over the last 4 months, the ratio not only increased, but it increased at SUCH a marked rate that you're going to claim a 41% increase in the TOTAL ratio of unreported to reported cases. And you're essentially back-dating that not to cover JUST the reported cases between Dec 2020 and now, but to cover the ENTIRE base of reported infections from Mar 2020 until now.

That makes no sense, Badge... 

If there were 83.1M total cases in Dec 2020 and we're at your number of 215M cases now, meaning we've had 160% more cases over the last 4 months than the entire 9 months from Mar-Dec 2020, how did nobody notice? You'd have bodies lining the streets. 

Mask wearing around here may have ebbed some I've noticed casually, but is still required inside any business I've noted, and nearly all comply.

Servers at restaurants are at 100%.

I got used to it, it's not some big deal to me, if it helps an iota, I'm for it.

Huh?

The vulnerable are already gone, or vaccinated now. The young and healthy are the ones moving the thing around today. They mostly don't get tested because they have no symptoms.

As of Dec 2020, the estimate you posted says 83.1M were infected in the US, counting both reported and unreported cases, a ratio of 4.6. That should be about 18.2M reported, which is a little lower than the worldometers number of about 20.6M, probable due to CDC data lag.

You then said you think we're up to 215M now. 

Worldometers says we're at 32.8M and their number was about 20.6M on Dec 31, so keeping apples to apples they count about 12.2M new cases in the last 4 months.

*IF* you meant to say that the current ratio of unreported to reported was around 6.5, then the right thing to do would be to multiply 6.5 by 12.2M, which gets you to 79.3M, and add it to the previous 83.1M, for a total of ~160M. I don't accept that the current ratio is 6.5 w/o evidence, but I'd stipulate that it's at least a plausible number. That would bring the OVERALL ratio, counting both the separate Mar-Dec and Jan-Apr, only to about 4.95. 

But that's not what you said. You said that the overall ratio has now jumped to 6.5, which means that the ratio between Jan 1 and now must be MUCH higher than 6.5. To get to 215M, that means that the ratio between Jan 1 and today is actually 10.8 unreported to reported cases. I don't see any evidence or explanation to see a jump that high... And then that there'd be >130M new infections over the span of 4 months, without anyone noticing. Doesn't pass the smell test, dude...

I realize that you think everyone has had this thing, twice. As such, you've consistently taken the highest possible estimates for the ratio of unreported to reported cases. I get that. I'm just saying that the numbers you're getting to are now well into the implausible range.