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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #12040 on: January 23, 2021, 11:32:49 AM »
I lean to thinking about "area under the curve".  A travel ban of course won't apply to US citizens.  My neighbor had been in Egypt and made it back, he's a citizen of course.

This thing is too contagious, and I think "we" still don't fully understand the means of transmission.


847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #12041 on: January 23, 2021, 11:35:52 AM »
I'm just saying, between the travel ban in November and now, the ban would have been lifted

regardless of who was in the white house
Still in place:


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GopherRock

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #12042 on: January 23, 2021, 05:54:45 PM »
@GopherRock was in Italy early on in this thing, and his bride had the virus and came back. Had we known about this thing when it truly broke out, they probably would not have gone to Italy when they did.

Just one example.

Another example is me. I would not have travelled as extensively as I did from November to March had we known about this. I got it on a plane back from Florida, and likely gave it to many others before I knew I was sick.
Without going into all the reasons why, the Mrs. and I were going to Italy in late December come hell or high water. This was our honeymoon, we had tickets to the night Mass on Christmas Eve at the Vatican, and most of the big stuff was booked long before some Patient Zero ate that bat at the Wuhan wet market. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #12043 on: January 23, 2021, 06:34:33 PM »
We still let citizens return, and some of them would have carried it.  The initial explosion would have been muted.


utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #12044 on: January 23, 2021, 07:11:18 PM »
We still let citizens return, and some of them would have carried it.  The initial explosion would have been muted.


I think it would have just pushed right along the t-axis.

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #12045 on: January 23, 2021, 10:06:27 PM »
yes, I'd guess instead of having 25 million cases today, we might have only 20 million cases

hard to tell

we all probably agree the number would have been smaller - we could all argue about how much smaller
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #12046 on: January 24, 2021, 09:07:23 AM »
Without going into all the reasons why, the Mrs. and I were going to Italy in late December come hell or high water. This was our honeymoon, we had tickets to the night Mass on Christmas Eve at the Vatican, and most of the big stuff was booked long before some Patient Zero ate that bat at the Wuhan wet market.
So, you would have travelled to Italy by sailboat, since air travel would have been closed. ;)
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #12047 on: January 24, 2021, 09:30:08 AM »
URK, Netherlands (AP) — Rioting youths protesting on the first night of a Dutch curfew torched a coronavirus testing facility and threw fireworks at police in a Dutch fishing village.

Police said Sunday they fined more than 3,600 people nationwide for breaching the curfew that ran from 9 p.m. Saturday until 4:30 a.m. Sunday and arrested 25 people for breaching the curfew or for violence.

Video from the village of Urk, 80 kilometers (50 miles) northeast of Amsterdam, showed youths breaking into the coronavirus testing facility near the village’s harbor before it was set ablaze Saturday night.


https://apnews.com/article/netherlands-health-coronavirus-pandemic-riots-amsterdam-550ce0c260d45131181727fbf41e8340
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CatsbyAZ

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #12048 on: January 24, 2021, 10:33:28 AM »
Opening five minutes of Friday's ABC World News Tonight spent on Covid:

News of the UK variant gets worse - “Britain's prime minister said today that they believe that this UK variant that we're now seeing here in the U.S. in at least 21 states tonight…it's not only much more contagious but it's also more deadly… British health officials citing early evidence suggesting it may be up to 30 percent deadlier but they're still investigating.

Vaccination supply too low - “New York State will run out of vaccination shots by the end of today. Governor Cuomo saying tonight that a new shipment is on the way but it underscores the need to ramp up vaccine production…the state burning through 97 percent of its first doses and is expected to run out by the end of the day. More is on the way but the shortage is forcing 15 vaccination hubs to close for now.”

Wait, we need a SECOND dose? - “In New York City the mayor is asking the federal government for permission to use second doses as first doses… with a dwindling vaccine supply the CDC is now telling people there is some flexibility when a second dose can't be given on time.”

And now we're advised to wear TWO masks?? - “Scientists in the last 24 hours are now doubling down on masks in this country making sure that the mask you're wearing is effective, even suggesting an extra layer in some cases… more and more health experts are now suggesting wearing two masks in high risk situations like when you can't avoid a crowd or you're in close proximity with other people.”


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6b8z_zx893I

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #12049 on: January 24, 2021, 10:57:00 AM »
IF we had some very early wide scale travel ban, the initial case volume might have been low enough that we failed to take additional steps as well and then it spread even faster, different curve shape, same area.

Maybe.

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #12050 on: January 24, 2021, 11:14:02 AM »
we shall never know with any certainty 

but, many will proclaim they certainly know these things
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #12051 on: January 24, 2021, 12:01:53 PM »
Opening five minutes of Friday's ABC World News Tonight spent on Covid:

News of the UK variant gets worse - “Britain's prime minister said today that they believe that this UK variant that we're now seeing here in the U.S. in at least 21 states tonight…it's not only much more contagious but it's also more deadly… British health officials citing early evidence suggesting it may be up to 30 percent deadlier but they're still investigating.

Vaccination supply too low - “New York State will run out of vaccination shots by the end of today. Governor Cuomo saying tonight that a new shipment is on the way but it underscores the need to ramp up vaccine production…the state burning through 97 percent of its first doses and is expected to run out by the end of the day. More is on the way but the shortage is forcing 15 vaccination hubs to close for now.”

Wait, we need a SECOND dose? - “In New York City the mayor is asking the federal government for permission to use second doses as first doses… with a dwindling vaccine supply the CDC is now telling people there is some flexibility when a second dose can't be given on time.”

And now we're advised to wear TWO masks?? - “Scientists in the last 24 hours are now doubling down on masks in this country making sure that the mask you're wearing is effective, even suggesting an extra layer in some cases… more and more health experts are now suggesting wearing two masks in high risk situations like when you can't avoid a crowd or you're in close proximity with other people.”


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6b8z_zx893I

there is just no evidence of this in the US

New positives are decreasing at a decent rate and deaths may have crested

so lets save the panic until scientists tell us its time not ABC news
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #12052 on: January 25, 2021, 07:12:15 AM »
The decline in reported new cases in GA looks real now, from 7,000+ confirmed to under 5,500.

Immunity starting to kick in?  Almost 900,000 KNOWN cases, perhaps half the population has been immunized with one shot OR has had the virus, which is pretty amazing if true.  That would cut transmission rates.




847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #12053 on: January 25, 2021, 08:12:22 AM »
Could be that the combo of the vaccines and the vast number of people who've had it and didn't know it? 

Let's hope so.
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