Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

WI:

But most of Asia, where they've better controlled the pandemic, is on the right side of the chart. Most of the English-speaking western world (incl USA and UK) is on the left. Some of the other hot spots, Spain/Italy/Brazil/France, are over there as well. Czechia, which 94 keeps bringing up, is also way on the left--they've got huge case numbers but perhaps not as high on deaths.

China should so clearly be thrown out of this study I’m not sure it’s even worth getting into what are (even without China) numbers that are all over the place across the world. China’s image-obsessed government all but stopped reporting deaths sometime last April. However, HLAs make a worthwhile case for the low numbers across Japan and South Korea.

Looking at who’s leading the death totals let’s hypothesize competing factors:



Population size: India vaults near the top despite low Deaths/1M (110) based solely on population of over a billion. Which should suggest where China should be.

First World/Western Vs Third World Death Tolls: Are seven of the top twelve nations Western Nations because they more aggressively track and confirm deaths whereas for a nation like Nigeria (over 200M) with less than 1500 death and 7 Deaths/1M, are many deaths not even being tested for Covid? Either due to lack of medical capability or medical inquiry.

Reported deaths are either:

Low:
By refusal to report: China, North Korea
By intentional under reporting: Iran (57K official Vs 201K likely projection)
By lack of medical capability: Nigeria & African neighbors, India(?)

High:
By aggressively tracking and confirming all deaths as either Covid or not: (most European nations)
By over-attributing deaths when other causes of death are also at play: USA – what other reasons is there for how the US claims 20% of global covid deaths?

Bad Covid news from a yet-to-be peer reviewed study out of the UK:

"Almost a third of recovered COVID-19 patients in a UK study ended up back in the hospital within five months — and up to one in eight died of complications from the illness, according to a report.

Researchers at the UK’s Leicester University and the Office for National Statistics found that out of 47,780 people discharged from the hospital, 29.4 percent were readmitted within 140 days, the Telegraph reported.

Of the total, 12.3 percent [about 1 in 8] ended up dying, it added.

Respiratory disease was diagnosed in 14,140 of the COVID cases after discharge, with 6,085 of the diagnoses in patients who had no history of respiratory conditions.

The mean age of study participants was 65 years."


From the New York Post:


https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1351161803468898311

The difference in the quality of health care between the UK and the US is huge

Until I see evidence we are experiencing similar stats Im putting my panic on hold

I saw that a couple days ago.  I'm going to wait for some rigorous peer review before I hit the panic button, but that's disappointing news any way you look at it.

The difference in the quality of health care between the UK and the US is huge

Until I see evidence we are experiencing similar stats Im putting my panic on hold

pretty sure that would be a big story here if things were similar in the USA

Mean age of the study was 65 years of age. Obviously that skews much higher than the population. 

It was a study of people who had been admitted [and discharged] from the hospital due to COVID. That naturally skews to the most severe cases as well, people in the worst shape and likely the most comorbidities. 

Study posted here: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.15.21249885v1.full.pdf

At baseline, individuals with COVID-19 had a mean age of 64.5 years (SD 19.2 years) and 54.9% were male. Compared with the general population, individuals in hospital with COVD-19 were more likely to be aged ≥50 years, male, living in a deprived area, a former smoker, and overweight or obese (Table 1). Individuals with COVID-19 were also more likely to be comorbid than the general population, with a higher prevalence of prior hospitalisation and all measured pre-existing conditions (most notably hypertension, MACE, respiratory disease and diabetes).

Now 1 in 8 died within 5 months. That sounds like a ridiculously high number. But when you figure that the group was skewed older, more towards smokers and the overweight, more towards higher comorbidities, AND were the most severe cases of COVID-19 requiring hospitalization, it makes sense. It's still a higher number than I would have thought, but much less ridiculously high.

BTW I'm not worried about peer review on this one. Looking at the study and its methodology, it looks like it's really cut and dried without a bunch of statistical magic to tease out these numbers. Unlike the study I posted regarding the immune system differences across countries, which required tons of statistical magic to find the correlation they found, this one is very simple. 

Georgia has been doing 65+ for two weeks now, but there are no openings for appointments anywhere.