The thing that most of you are missing is that the whole of the NCAA will be soon changing as the divide between the have's and the have nots will get bigger and more insurmountable. The whole structure of D1 D1-A or FCS FBS or whatever silliness they have now will go away and there will be a permanent split.
The amount of money flowing into college sports is about to accelerate greatly, and that will affect recruiting. The schools that can pay the most, either through alumni with NIL dollars or other sources will soon separate themselves from the mid-to smaller schools that can't draw those dollars.
My belief is that this whole G5 vs P5 will be about a 6-8 year period, after that we will go to a super league where only the biggest schools with the most money/boosters will compete with each other. There's simply not enough players to sustain the middle/low tier schools to compete.
It is plainly obvious that Memphis/Cincinnati aren't going to be able to keep up with Bama/tOSU, I agree with you that far.
The complication, I think, is that Vanderbilt and Illinois aren't going to be able to keep up either.
Therefore, it isn't simply a question of cutting the G5 loose, the split you are talking about is basically the dozen or so helmets vs everyone else.
Also, I'm not sure how big of a change this ultimately will be. Endorsement type deals (NIL) aren't going to mean BIG money for most players even at a place like tOSU. Instead, you are going to see big money for the starting QB's and a few other well known starters at Bama, tOSU, etc. Then, I assume, the gaming systems will either have to come up with some way to compensate all CFB players or else drop ID's. Who knows how that will work out. For everybody else (even at Bama/tOSU) there isn't going to be a lot of money (I think).
The competitive advantage issue for the Tide and Buckeyes is that the BEST QB's and the BEST Linebackers and whatnot will get more money at Bama/tOSU than they would at Vandy/Illinois/Memphis/Cincy. My guess is that a LOT of HS recruits have an optimistic (or inflated) view of themselves and will *THINK* that they are going to be superstars so they'll want to go to Bama/tOSU because there is more money in that for the superstars. Some may actually cost themselves money because you'd probably get a lot more NIL money as a starter at Vandy/Illinois or even Memphis/Cincy than you would as a bench warmer at Bama/tOSU.
I'm thinking it is going to be a while before we really see the ramifications of this.
