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I just think you are wildly overrating P5 teams. Iowa State was a top ten team last year and lost to Louisiana. Certainly, the G5 team will take some lumps some years. But the idea that they can't win a game seems awfully silly based on every single metric you wish to use. It is ignoring all the results we actually see in favor of imagination. You are telling me Cincinnati couldn't have beaten Indiana last year? Like, it's impossible? Really?

Though, in retrospect, maybe I should have come around. OSU was without like 14 guys against Alabama so in the WIMU Index (WIMU = Whatever I Make Up) they would have won the national championship, probably by like 20 points.

First, I don't want you to think that I'm just blowing off your argument without any consideration.  I'm not, I've put a lot of thought into this and presented evidence which I will recount and add to below.  

Second, I think that your WIMU concept is vastly unfair to @OrangeAfroMan and I because we HAVE presented evidence to back up our assertions.  

Upthread OAM pointed out that since 1989 the Gators are 69-1 vs G5 and FCS teams.  Granted the Gators have been pretty good over that stretch and a lot of those G5 were far from the top of the G5 but the Gators haven't always been good and not all of those G5 have been bottom-feeders.  As he pointed out, 1989-2020 for the Gators does include a couple of sub .500 years and a handful of mediocre (ie, 7-5 or a little better) type teams.  

Another example, 2019 tOSU vs Cincy:
In 2019 the Buckeyes were one of the top teams in the P5 although not the top team.  They lost a close game to Clemson and likely would have been beaten rather soundly by #1 LSU.  Meanwhile Cincy was one of the top teams in the G5 although not the top team.  In the final AP Poll they were #21 which was second among G5 teams behind #17 Memphis and in the final CFP poll (pre bowls) they were #21 which was second among the G5 behind #17 Memphis.  

Memphis was pretty clearly the top G5 that year and Cincy played them twice, losing both games.  Note, however, that both games were at Memphis and competitive.  In the first game Cincy was tied just before the half and within a FG with under five minutes to play before Memphis scored a clinching TD late for a 34-24 win.  

The second game was the AACCG a week later and hosted by Memphis (because Memphis won the first game).  Cincy led 14-10 at the half and 24-23 deep in the fourth quarter.  The entire game was played within 7 points and Memphis won on a TD scored with just over a minute remaining to take a 29-24 lead (they went for two to try to make it a 7 point game and failed.)  Cincy got the ball back after Memphis' late TD and drove all the way to a first and 10 at the Memphis 21 but the drive stalled out and Memphis won 29-24.  

My point is that Cincy was very nearly equal to the best G5 team in the country so what happened when they played tOSU?  

• Ohio State outgained Cincy 508-273
• Ohio State had more fist downs 31-13
• Ohio State had more rushing yards 270-107
• Ohio State had more yards per rush 5.9-3.1
• Ohio State had more passing yards 238-166
• Ohio State had more yards per pass 8.8-7.2
• Ohio State led 7-0 after one quarter
• Ohio State led 28-0 at the half
• Ohio State led 35-0 after three quarters
• Ohio State won 42-0

My point is that the top of the G5 wasn't remotely close to the top of the P5 in 2019.  

My assertion, and I believe OAM's also, is that games like 2019 tOSU vs Cincy and stats like UF's 69-1 are reasonable and fair reflections of the enormous gap between the top of the P5 and the top of the G5 while games like the Cincy/UGA Peach Bowl and the BoiseSt/Oklahoma Fiesta Bowl are the outliers.  I've never said it was "impossible" I just said that the gap is sufficiently large that G5 upset wins in the first round will be rare while G5 upset wins in the Quarterfinals will be vanishingly rare.  

To be fair, I'll look at how the top G5 team in each of the past seven seasons (the entire CFP era) did against the P5, here goes:

The top G5 per the final 2020 CFP Poll was #8 Cincy:

• L 24-21 to UGA in the Peach Bowl (UGA finished 8-2/7-2)

The top G5 per the final 2019 CFP Poll was #17 Memphis:

• W 15-10 over Ole Miss (Ole Miss finished 4-8/2-6)
• L 53-39 to PSU in the Cotton Bowl (PSU finished 11-2/7-2)

The top G5 in the final 2018 CFP Poll was #8 UCF:

• W 45-14 over Pitt (Pitt finished 7-7/6-2)
• L 40-32 to LSU in the Fiesta Bowl (LSU finished 10-3/5-3)

The top G5 in the final 2017 CFP Poll was #12 UCF:

• W 38-10 over Maryland (Maryland finished 4-8/2-7)
• W 34-27 over Auburn in the Peach Bowl (Auburn finished 10-4/7-1)

The top G5 in the final 2016 CFP Poll was #15 WMU:

• W 22-21 over Northwestern (Northwestern finished 7-6/5-4)
• W 34-10 over Illinois (Illinois finished 2-7/3-9)
• L 24-16 to Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl (UW finished 11-3/7-2)

The top G5 in the final 2015 CFP Poll was #18 Houston:

• W 34-31 over Louisville (Louisville finished 8-5/5-3)
• W 38-24 over FSU in the Peach Bowl (FSU finished 10-3/6-2)

The top G5 in the final 2014 CFP Poll was #20 Boise St:

• L 35-13 to Ole Miss (Ole Miss finished 9-4/5-3)
• W 38-30 over Zona in the Fiesta Bow (Zona finished 10-4/7-2)  

So in the last six years the very best G5 team in the country each year is 9-5 against all P5 teams but lets sort it by their final records:

• 0-1 against teams that finished 11-2/7-2 by 14
• 0-1 against teams that finished 8-2/7-2 by 3
• 0-1 against teams that finished 11-3/7-2 by 8
• 1-0 against teams that finished 10-3/6-2 by 14
• 0-1 against teams that finished 10-3/5-3 by 8
• 1-0 against teams that finished 10-4/7-1 by 7
• 1-0 against teams that finished 10-4/7-2 by 8
• 0-1 against teams that finished 9-4/5-3 by 22
• 1-0 against teams that finished 8-5/5-3 by 3
• 1-0 against teams that finished 7-7/6-2 by 31
• 1-0 against teams that finished 7-6/5-4, by 1
• 1-0 against teams that finished 4-8/2-6 by 5
• 1-0 against teams that finished 4-8/2-7 by 28
• 1-0 against teams that finished 3-9/2-7 by 24

Six of the nine wins came against P5 teams that finished 8-5 or worse and would obviously be nowhere near the CFP.  Even there, three of those six wins against mediocre and bad teams were by five or less points and remember this is comparing the BEST G5 team in the nation to a mediocre or bad P5.  Even with all of that favoring the G5 team, they only barely managed to win three of these games.  

The remaining three G5 wins came by 7, 8, and 14 points against P5 teams that finished 10-4/7-1, 10-4/7-2, and 11-3/7-2 respectively.  

Overall in the last seven years the best G5 in the country each year is 1-4 against P5 teams that finished 10-3 or better and 8-1 against P5 teams that finished below 10-3.  The 1-4 record against good P5 teams, I think, is basically a best-case-scenario for the G5 in the new CFP first round and I highly doubt it will even be once in five years, I predict more along the lines of once a decade.  The few G5's that get to the Quarterfinal will then run into P5's even better (vastly better I would argue) than the 10-3+ P5's that they only went 1-4 against and they'll get obliterated.  

Sure - however, 2019 OSU was statistically one of the best teams in college football history. Until the playoff, no team came within single digits of them. So, the idea that we should compare any team to the very best teams isn't right. We should compare the teams to the other teams in the pool. And we have a great data point that year, where Memphis and PSU would have both made the playoffs, and Memphis beat PSU 53-39.

Only one problem:
You have the score right but the result backwards. Penn State beat Memphis 53-39.

Only one problem:
You have the score right but the result backwards. Penn State beat Memphis 53-39.

My bad yer right. 

But looking at the box score, Memphis outgained PSU - my point here is not that the G5 will dominate the playoffs, but to show they can certainly play competitive, fun games. That one definitely was.

Though, in retrospect, maybe I should have come around. OSU was without like 14 guys against Alabama so in the WIMU Index (WIMU = Whatever I Make Up) they would have won the national championship, probably by like 20 points.

Why do you poo-poo 5 starters just sitting out of that game?  If 5 had the NFL draft capital to sit out, how many didn't who wanted to?
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Many here can make fun of me all they want, but G5 programs don't know what they're facing up against a good P5 team with its ultimate goal still attainable.  

I think we'll see a G5 beat a P5 in the first round fairly often, maybe every third year or so.  

I think you are probably WAY too high at 33% for the first round games but it depends on how highly the G5 Champs end up getting ranked which is something that can snowball.  What I am getting at is this:  In last year's final CFP rankings the highest ranked G5 Champion was #9 Cincinnati.  As I understand the current 12-team proposal that means that the Bearcats would have played a true road game at #8 Georgia.  Now lets consider that along with two hypothetical alternatives:

• Bearcats #9 play at #8 7-2 Georgia.  
• Bearcats #6 host #11 6-1 Indiana
• Bearcats #12 play at #5 7-1 aTm.  

Even holding Cincinnati the same my view is that their chances change a LOT.  I think that they have a VERY slim chance in a true road game against Georgia or aTm but I think they would have a pretty decent shot in a home game against Indiana.  

I said I thought it could snowball because if the G5's get absolutely drilled in the first round of the first couple 12-team playoff occurrences then that will adversely impact the rankings of future G5 Champions and even the REALLY good ones are likely to end up at #12 playing near-impossible road games against #5.  

Conversely, if the G5 pulls off wins in two of the first three years of the 12-team playoff then that will positively impact the rankings of future G5 Champions and even the REALLY shaky ones are likely to end up hosting their first round game in which case they'll have a much better chance.  

As a general thing, considering the average best G5 Champion and what the average #5 looks like, I think your one in three was WAY too high.  I think the average best G5 Champion would be lucky to win one in ten true road games against the average #5.  

OTOH, considering the average best G5 Champion and what the average #12 looks like, your one in three might even be too low.  I think the average best G5 Champion would win around one in three true home games against the average #12.  

Upon reflection, one in three is too many.  I was thinking we'd have a G5 ranked in the top ten most seasons, which likely will not be the case.  Let me revise that considerably by saying IF a G5 is top ten ranked they could win a first rounder 1 time in 3, maybe 1 in 2.  Having a "UC" ranked that high is not the norm, duh.

Maybe it will be more common going forward?

It would be five draft possible players of course.  I thought it great they could play their twos in a major bowl game.  They probably suffered from loss of depth more than talent in many cases.