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Topic: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
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medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #490 on:** July 15, 2021, 02:46:15 PM »

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on July 15, 2021, 10:03:18 AM

Yet many of them are already quite a bit worse than Cincy, Memphis, Houston, etc.

You are right. Cincy, Memphis, Houston, BoiseSt could pretty regularly beat Kansas or Rutgers but that isn't the comparison we are talking about because Kansas and Rutgers aren't going to be in the CFP. Those high-end G5 teams aren't going to get to the CFP and find a 2-10 Rutgers or a 1-11 Kansas on the other sideline they are going to get there and find a 12-1 Ohio State or an 11-2 Oklahoma on the other sideline.

FearlessF · « **Reply #491 on:** July 15, 2021, 02:47:47 PM »

Brutus did specify middle of the road P5 schools that have no chance of making the playoff

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #492 on:** July 15, 2021, 02:49:57 PM »

Quote from: MaximumSam on July 15, 2021, 10:23:19 AM

Like Brutus said, OSU won a national championship and beat a .500 Cincy team 23-19

Yeah, they did. The Buckeyes did barely win a game against a G5 type team in a NC year but consider a few things:

That particular NC was probably more prone to close wins than any other in recent history. They also had close games against Northwestern (finished 3-9), Wisconsin (finished 8-6), Penn State (finished 9-4), Purdue (finished 7-6), Illinois (finished 5-7), Michigan (finished 10-3), and Miami (finished 12-1).
Ohio State DID win the game.

FearlessF · « **Reply #493 on:** July 15, 2021, 02:53:09 PM »

I think a K-State fan labeled that Buckeye team the "Luckeyes"

I have since used that term on my Hawkeye neighbors

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #494 on:** July 15, 2021, 03:00:13 PM »

I could easily see the opening round as trap game city.

You get a team like Wisconsin or Michigan going up against a UCF or Coastal Carolina, and then the winner gets Bama.

FearlessF · « **Reply #495 on:** July 15, 2021, 03:16:43 PM »

well, as you know too well, it won't be Michigan

and Wisconsin might be protecting important players and could get "trapped"

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #496 on:** July 15, 2021, 03:24:00 PM »

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on July 15, 2021, 03:00:13 PM

I could easily see the opening round as trap game city.

You get a team like Wisconsin or Michigan going up against a UCF or Coastal Carolina, and then the winner gets Bama.

I think a lot of that depends on how they set things up.

The CCG's are the first Saturday in December so somewhere between 12/1 (2018) and 12/7 (2019).

My assumption is that the Quarterfinals would be bowl games on or around NYD. That leaves somewhere between 24-30 days between the CCG's and the Quarterfinals. You have to stick the campus site first round games in there somewhere.

If you made them two weeks after the CCG's that would be anywhere between December 15 (if December 1 is a Saturday and December 21 (if December 1 is a Sunday). I think that works because it avoids Christmas and still leaves between 10-16 days between the first round games and the Quarterfinals.

I'm not sure that situation leads to a "trap game" scenario because there is enough time both before and after the first round game to reorient yourself from CCG mode to first round game mode and then to quarterfinal mode.

The other thing is that the Quarterfinal game for these teams isn't generally going to be "Bama" if you mean that in the sense of last year's #1 ranked 13-0 Bama. Instead, I think that we are talking here about #5 playing #12 with the assumption that the winner will then play #4 (12-1 Oklahoma in 2019).

Looking at the 2019 final CFP rankings:

13-0 SEC Champ LSU
13-0 B1G Champ tOSU
13-0 ACC Champ Clemson
12-1 B12 Champ Oklahoma
11-2 Georgia (lost SECCG to #1 LSU)
11-2 PAC Champ Oregon
11-2 Baylor (lost B12CG to #4 OU)
10-3 Wisconsin (#2 lost B1GCG to tOSU)
10-2 Florida
10-2 Penn State
11-2 Utah (lost PACCG to #6 Oregon

Then the highest ranked G5 Champion was 12-1 #17 Memphis. So I'm assuming that under what they are proposing the first round games would have been:

#17 Memphis at #5 Georgia, winner plays Oklahoma
#11 Utah at #6 Oregon, winner plays Clemson
#10 Penn State at #7 Baylor, winner plays tOSU
#9 Florida at #8 Wisconsin, winner plays LSU

The Utah/Oregon game is really silly since they JUST played in the PACCG with Oregon winning 37-15 so then Oregon would have to win AGAIN to get a shot at Clemson.

The game we are focused on here is the Memphis at Georgia game.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #497 on:** July 15, 2021, 04:39:38 PM »

Memphis could have upset that UGA team, I think, it's not probable, but say 20% or so. You can get the percentage pretty accurately from the betting line.

Cincinnati last year was probably better than that Memphis squad and they clearly had the Dawgs on the ropes and played a tough game.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #498 on:** July 15, 2021, 04:47:06 PM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 15, 2021, 03:24:00 PM

Looking at the 2019 final CFP rankings:
13-0 SEC Champ LSU
13-0 B1G Champ tOSU
13-0 ACC Champ Clemson
12-1 B12 Champ Oklahoma
11-2 Georgia (lost SECCG to #1 LSU)
11-2 PAC Champ Oregon
11-2 Baylor (lost B12CG to #4 OU)
10-3 Wisconsin (#2 lost B1GCG to tOSU)
10-2 Florida
10-2 Penn State
11-2 Utah (lost PACCG to #6 Oregon

Then the highest ranked G5 Champion was 12-1 #17 Memphis. So I'm assuming that under what they are proposing the first round games would have been:
#17 Memphis at #5 Georgia, winner plays Oklahoma
#11 Utah at #6 Oregon, winner plays Clemson
#10 Penn State at #7 Baylor, winner plays tOSU
#9 Florida at #8 Wisconsin, winner plays LSU

The Utah/Oregon game is really silly since they JUST played in the PACCG with Oregon winning 37-15 so then Oregon would have to win AGAIN to get a shot at Clemson.

The game we are focused on here is the Memphis at Georgia game.

Expanding on this based on what we think we know of the current 12-team proposal, the 2018 rankings:

13-0 SEC Champ Bama
13-0 ACC Champ Clemson
12-0 Notre Dame
12-1 B12 Champ Oklahoma
11-2 Georgia (lost to #1 Bama in SECCG)
12-1 B1G Champ tOSU
10-2 Michigan
12-0 AAC Champ UCF
10-3 PAC Champ Washington
9-3 Florida
9-3 LSU
9-3 Penn State

In this case the highest ranked G5 Champion wouldn't be the lowest seed because they were ranked #8 so they'd presumably just play an 8/9 game against Washington with the winner getting #1 Bama in the Quarterfinal. Also I think they would host so they'd have a pretty good chance in the first round because they'd have a number of advantages over a team like Memphis in 2019:

They were higher ranked because they are probably a better team, and
Being higher ranked they get a lesser first round opponent (#9 instead of #5), and
Being ranked in the top-8 they'd get to host their opening game and at least in this case their opponent is from REALLY far away so that would presumably create a major geographic advantage.

I'm assuming that the first round games would have been:

#12 Penn State at #5 Georgia, winner plays #4 Oklahoma
#11 LSU at #6 tOSU, winner plays #3 Notre Dame
#10 Florida at #7 Michigan, winner plays #2 Clemson
#9 Washington at #8 UCF, winner plays #1 Bama

This is why there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth in PAC Country about the P5 Champions not getting a higher priority. In this case their Champion would have been the 6th highest ranked league Champion behind the rest of the P5 and AAC Champion UCF.

2017:

12-1 ACC Champ Clemson
12-1 B12 Champ Oklahoma
12-1 SEC Champ Georgia
11-1 Bama
11-2 B1G Champ tOSU
12-1 Wisconsin (lost B1GCG to #5 tOSU)
10-3 Auburn (lost SECCG to #3 Georgia)
11-2 PAC Champ USC
10-2 Penn State
10-2 MiamiFL (lost ACCCG to #1 Clemson)
10-2 Washington
12-0 UCF

The highest ranked G5 Champion was #12 UCF so in 2017 just like in 2018 the 12 CFP teams would simply have been the top-12 with the following assumed match-ups:

#12 UCF at #5 tOSU, winner plays #4 Bama
#11 Washington at #6 Wisconsin, winner plays #3 Georgia
#10 MiamiFl at #7 Auburn, winner plays #2 Oklahoma
#9 Penn State at #8 USC, winner plays #1 Clemson

2016:

13-0 SEC Champ Bama
12-1 ACC Champ Clemson
11-1 tOSU
12-1 PAC Champ Washington
11-2 B1G Champ PSU
10-2 Michigan
10-2 B12 Champ Oklahoma
10-3 Wisconsin (lost B1GCG to #5 PSU)
9-3 USC
10-3 Colorado (lost PACCG to #9 USC)
9-3 Florida State

The highest ranked G5 Champion was 13-0 #15 WMU so I assume the match-ups would have been:

#15 WMU at #5 PSU, winner plays #4 Washington
#11 FSU at #6 Michigan, winner plays #3 tOSU
#10 Colorado at #7 Oklahoma, winner plays #2 Clemson
#9 USC at #8 Wisconsin, winner plays #1 Bama

2015:

13-0 ACC Champ Clemson
12-1 SEC Champ Bama
12-1 B1G Champ MSU
11-1 B12 Champ Oklahoma
12-1 Iowa (lost B1GCG to #3 MSU)
11-2 PAC Champ Stanford
11-1 tOSU
10-2 Notre Dame
10-2 Florida State
11-2 North Carolina (lost ACCCG to #1 Clemson)
10-2 TCU

The highest ranked G5 Champion was #18 Houston so I assume the match-ups would have been:

#18 Houston at #5 Iowa, winner plays #4 Oklahoma
#11 TCU at #6 Stanford, winner plays #3 MSU
#10 North Carolina at #7 tOSU, winner plays #2 Bama
#9 FSU at #8 Notre Dame, winner plays #1 Clemson

I think this is a year in which the G5 Champion would have had a great chance to win their opener because frankly I think that Iowa was an overrated product of their schedule.

2014:

12-1 SEC Champ Bama
12-1 PAC Champ Oregon
13-0 ACC Champ FSU
12-1 B1G Champ tOSU
11-1 B12 Champ Baylor
11-1 TCU
10-2 MissSt
10-2 MSU
9-3 Ole Miss
10-3 Zona (lost PACCG to #2 Oregon)
9-3 KSU

The highest ranked G5 Champion was #20 BoiseSt so I assume that match-ups would have been:

#20 Boise St at #5 Baylor, winner plays #4 tOSU
#11 KSU at #6 TCU, winner plays #3 FSU
#10 Zona at #7 MissSt, winner plays #2 Oregon
#9 Ole Miss at #8 MSU, winner plays #1 Bama

Cincydawg · « **Reply #499 on:** July 15, 2021, 04:56:03 PM »

There are some good games in this batch:

I'm assuming that the first round games would have been:

#12 Penn State at #5 Georgia, winner plays #4 Bama
#11 LSU at #6 tOSU, winner plays #3 Notre Dame
#10 Florida at #7 Michigan, winner plays #2 Clemson
#9 Washington at #8 UCF, winner plays #1 Bama

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #500 on:** July 15, 2021, 04:59:18 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 15, 2021, 04:56:03 PM

There are some good games in this batch:

I'm assuming that the first round games would have been:
#12 Penn State at #5 Georgia, winner plays #4 Bama
#11 LSU at #6 tOSU, winner plays #3 Notre Dame
#10 Florida at #7 Michigan, winner plays #2 Clemson
#9 Washington at #8 UCF, winner plays #1 Bama

I can't imagine that they would make Bama play as both the 1 seed and the 4 seed.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #501 on:** July 15, 2021, 05:04:40 PM »

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on July 15, 2021, 04:59:18 PM

I can't imagine that they would make Bama play as both the 1 seed and the 4 seed.

My mistake, that should have been #4 Oklahoma.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #502 on:** July 15, 2021, 05:39:58 PM »

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on July 15, 2021, 04:59:18 PM

I can't imagine that they would make Bama play as both the 1 seed and the 4 seed.

Heck, they could probably take all four seeds.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #503 on:** July 15, 2021, 06:24:01 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on July 15, 2021, 04:39:38 PM

Memphis could have upset that UGA team, I think, it's not probable, but say 20% or so. You can get the percentage pretty accurately from the betting line.

Cincinnati last year was probably better than that Memphis squad and they clearly had the Dawgs on the ropes and played a tough game.

Full strength Dawgs?

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Topic: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large

medinabuckeye1

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