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Topic: Rutgers (0-1, 3-1) at #19 Michigan (1-0, 4-0) Post Game

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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #28 on: September 22, 2021, 12:59:26 AM »
The spread does indeed change as bets come in. It doesn't effect your bet, they just want to get that 50/50 split. 

The casino is a fairly funny place to watch football. It is the only place where you can see a guy rooting for BYU while completely wasted. 
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bayareabadger

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #29 on: September 22, 2021, 08:16:51 AM »
I have not bet on sports. So, explain for me this . . . does the betting line change over time with the bets placed on each side of the game, as it does in pari-mutuel betting at my local dog track (which will no longer exist after 2022)?
Yup

FWIW, it looks like the line has been bet up to 20 in a number of places, though it was bet down initially.

I don't know if there's a computer consensus that includes points. But it seems the massive spread is in line with the computers. We'll see if this is one they have a blind spot on or not. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #30 on: September 22, 2021, 09:02:54 AM »
If they balance the money coming in, there can be no blind spot.  I wonder how often a line changes dramatically, say a game opens at +10 and some massive bet comes in, would it go to +15?  

FearlessF

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #31 on: September 22, 2021, 09:22:37 AM »
not sure about a single massive bet.  I'd guess some powerful wealthy folks have done such to move the line and influence betting in the past

not sure how the house handles that to safe guard themselves

now if the starting QB and RB are tossed in jail on Thursday night, the line will move with many folks taking the opposing team
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Cincydawg

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #32 on: September 22, 2021, 09:31:37 AM »
Has anyone ever seen a line move more than say 3 points?

Abba

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #33 on: September 22, 2021, 09:34:45 AM »
I moved the line once at the Golden Nugget.  I put down $20 on Houston +1000 vs. Oklahoma.  Then my friend tried to do the same bet immediately after me, and they said it was +900 now.  It is a small casino in Old Vegas, but I probably didn't move it, but I still like to tell people that I did.

FearlessF

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #34 on: September 22, 2021, 09:38:07 AM »
week 2 this season - but this line was set in June

Washington vs. Michigan, Saturday 8:00 p.m. ET
Opened June 30th: Washington -1.5
Sunday September 5th open: Michigan -5.5
Now: Michigan -7
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Cincydawg

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #35 on: September 22, 2021, 09:40:26 AM »
That's a big move, but as you note, an early set line.

FearlessF

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #36 on: September 22, 2021, 09:53:49 AM »
I've seen a line move quite a bit in a week when injuries or suspensions come into play

bowl spreads can be 3 or 4 weeks out
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Mdot21

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #37 on: September 22, 2021, 10:48:01 AM »
PFF's highest graded RB's thru 3 weeks. Kinda crazy #1 & #2 were on the same team last year and that team SUCKED.



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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #38 on: September 22, 2021, 11:03:31 AM »
The Line is an interesting thing.  Obviously the House will win nearly every time with the Vig if they balance the bets, no reason to mess with a sure thing.

I have wondered if major programs with a lot of fans get a larger line as a result, but then, bettors would know this and offset it to the point it disappeared.
I've also wondered about this. My thought on bigger programs getting larger betting lines to even the wagering on both sides was from a coworker who was a bookie on the side. This was mid-2000s.

I would think, as with so many other things, that we have enough data now that that any edge such as betting smaller programs to cover against large programs whose line is "incorrect" might be something that's been edged out via data analysis. Anyone with the bankroll big enough to study these things and look for an edge would be almost impossible not to see it, and exploit it until the oddsmakers adjust. 

I have not bet on sports. So, explain for me this . . . does the betting line change over time with the bets placed on each side of the game, as it does in pari-mutuel betting at my local dog track (which will no longer exist after 2022)?
Yes, the line moves to try to equalize the action on both sides of the wager. If the betting is heavy to one side or the other, the line will adjust during the week.

However, unlike horse or dog betting (at least horse as I've never bet the dogs), whatever bet YOU make is locked in at the line YOU make it at. So if Michigan is -18 and you bet $100 on them at -18, it doesn't matter if the line moves to -15 by kickoff--your bet is at -18. At the horse track, the odds are constantly moving and you're betting simply to win/place/show, and if 25 minutes before the race you bet a horse to win and the current odds are 7:1, and the line moves to 3:1, your bet is now at 3:1. So that's a big difference. 

ELA

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #39 on: September 22, 2021, 11:36:40 AM »

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0) at #19 Michigan Wolverines (3-0)
3:30 - Ann Arbor, MI - ABC
Wherever Michigan's season goes from here, it was perhaps the win last year at Rutgers that put them in a place to have this success.  The Wolverines had lost 3 in a row, one as a 4 touchdown favorite, and the other two in blowout fashion, were trailing Rutgers 17-0 late in the first half, with just a 12% chance to win, and probably a similar chance of Harbaugh being back in 2021.  The season was completely off the rails.  Instead Harbaugh decided to pivot away from his Cam Newton/Vince Young hybrid in Joe Milton, to Cade McNamera.  McNamera almost immediately hit Conelius Johnson for a 43 yard touchdown pass, sparking a 48-42 triple overtime win.  McNamera finished 27-36 for 260 yards, 5 touchdowns (4 passing, 1 rushing), and no interceptions.  He had run off Milton, but was surely going to be supplanted by incoming 5* recruit J.J. McNamera, right?  Nope.  People act like he's some scrappy walk on.  247 ranked him as the #7 pro style QB coming out of high school, a 4* recruit who chose Michigan over USC.  No, Michigan isn't winning BECAUSE of him, but he is certainly allowing them to win.  Right now though, until someone forces McNamera to beat them, he will keep on picking his spots.  Rutgers will try, but as bad as Washington is, their defense is still #15 in the nation in SP+.  They held Arkansas State to 48 rushing yards on 2.1 ypc last week.  Michigan ran 56 times for 343 yards on 6.1 ypc on them.  And in the rain, with Michigan leading, and McNamera throwing just 14 passes, you know Washington was loaded up to stop the run.  They just couldn't do it.  As good as Rutgers is on defense, I'm not confident they are better than Washington, and now down their best cornerback, and another one in the rotation, just how confident is Greg Schiano in selling out to completely stop the run?  My guess is less so than he otherwise would have.  The Wolverines have their own issues at cornerback, so Noah Vedral, who has completed 80% of his passes over his last two games, is efficient enough to perhaps take some advantage to move the ball a little bit better than expected.  Remember, Washington did move the ball a little better than the final score would indicate.  Michigan is 3-0 against Rutgers in Ann Arbor, with an average score of 45-10.  I think the game will be a little better this year. 
MICHIGAN 35, RUTGERS 23



Temp430

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #40 on: September 22, 2021, 11:53:13 AM »
The biggest difference in Michigan's run game this year is the OL.  It's been very good against questionable defenses.  As always the RBs and other skill positions get the press.  We'll see if Michigan's OL can keep it up for the rest of the season.  In past years with good starts they could not against the better Big Ten defenses.
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FearlessF

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Re: Rutgers (3-0) at #19 Michigan (3-0) Game Week
« Reply #41 on: September 22, 2021, 11:53:40 AM »
PFF's highest graded RB's thru 3 weeks. Kinda crazy #1 & #2 were on the same team last year and that team SUCKED.

recruiting and talent is not the issue
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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