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A question, how critical is it today for starting QBs to have a lot of real game experience?

Had you rather have an uber talented inexperienced guy or a pretty good guy who started last season?

I lean to thinking these elite level QBs already have a ton of "real" experience these days, granted high level HS is not like high level college, but the pressure is present there.  These guys come in in the spring, then practice all summer, then fall camp, my GUESS is they are a lot better prepared than they would have been in 1990, or 2000.  The OCs may give them a simplified game plan, a shortened list of audibles to call, but if the team around them is elite, I think they can mostly avoid stupid mistakes and play quite well.

It would help to have a couple pastries out of the gate as UGA does, not facing OSU/Texas.

One fan base will be ecstatic, one will be morose.  The latter may want to fire the coach and shoot the starting QB into the sun.

The former will annoint their team as the "new Alabama" with the title assured.

Yup.  Now a loss in this game just reduces your team's margin of error for making the playoffs.

Horns by 10

Yup

And just like the SEC mouthpiece Finebaum says, Texas has a huge chip on its shoulder, and OSU is drunk on its national title. I think Texas comes out with their hair on fire and takes a comfortable lead. An OSU will claw its way back into a respectable final score. 27-17 bad guys.

With all the turnover I'm not sure how much this applies.  In the old days you'd have had a LOT of starters on the Texas team that were major contributors in the loss in January and sure they'd likely have chips on their shoulders.  Then you'd have had a LOT of starters on the tOSU team that were major contributors in the January win and NC and sure, they might be 'drunk on their NC' but turnover is higher than ever so for a LOT of the starters on both sides this will be the first time they've seen this opponent.  

Frankly I think predicting this (or any first week game that is a reasonably even match-up) is an exercise in futility.  I think that @Cincydawg is right that:

I lean to thinking these elite level QBs already have a ton of "real" experience these days, granted high level HS is not like high level college, but the pressure is present there.  These guys come in in the spring, then practice all summer, then fall camp, my GUESS is they are a lot better prepared than they would have been in 1990, or 2000.  The OCs may give them a simplified game plan, a shortened list of audibles to call, but if the team around them is elite, I think they can mostly avoid stupid mistakes and play quite well.

With that said, there is still no substitute for real high-level college competition and nobody really knows how Arch Manning and whoever ends up starting at QB for the Buckeyes are going to perform.  If one hits the ground running and looks like a Hypesman contender while the other has some freshman struggles then this could easily be a blowout either way.  OTOH, if both look like Hypesmans or both look like freshmen then this is probably a close game, all else being equal (or reasonably close thereto).  

A lot of times with new starters it can be both in the same game.  In that 2005 game Vince Young ended up being the hero after leading Texas' game-winning drive late but earlier in the game he threw two "freshman" interceptions each of which set up the Buckeyes in FG range.  Texas outgained Ohio State, gaining more than half-again as many yards but they had three turnovers that each resulted in an easy FG for the Buckeyes.  Ohio State's only turnover was in desperation time AFTER Texas' game-winning drive.  Those three turnovers kept Texas from walking away with it and almost led to an Ohio State win.  That is the kind of thing that is basically impossible to predict.  

Finebaum is perhaps no worse than some other "experts" on TV and radio.  I doubt he even views himself as an expert on games.  Maybe he does.

To me, he's boring and predictable, I tune him out.

Finebaum is perhaps no worse than some other "experts" on TV and radio.  I doubt he even views himself as an expert on games.  Maybe he does.

To me, he's boring and predictable, I tune him out.

That indicates you tuned him in,you're getting fined a 6 Pk of Live Oak Pilz payable to 94