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Topic: Rich get richer

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #350 on: September 13, 2023, 07:18:43 PM »
No, but they were lower than whatever the 12th team would be in a college football playoff.
Are you sure?
I guess it depends how you measure things. In CFB there are a lot less teams so as a percentage the 12/~130 is ~9%. In CBB there are ~360 teams so as a percentage the 68/~360 is roughly double at 19%.

This is totally anecdotal but it just "feels" to me like the rich-to-poor gap in CFB is bigger then that gap in CBB.

Are the spreads equivalent?

In any case he ( @betarhoalphadelta ) specifically said 16 seed and you beat up a strawman by using 5th seeded SDSU and 9th seeded FAU.

Note that in addition to the fact that neither of them were #16 seeds, neither of them actually won either.

It is easy to forget this because making it to a S16 seems like such a big deal (especially to someone like you and I who are fans of a dysfunctional BB program) but remember that it takes six Tournament wins to win an NC:
  • Making the S16 is only 1/3 of the way there.
  • Making the E8 is only 1/2 way there.
  • Making the F4 (#9 FAU) is only 2/3 of the way.


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #351 on: September 13, 2023, 07:33:26 PM »
Are you sure?
I guess it depends how you measure things. In CFB there are a lot less teams so as a percentage the 12/~130 is ~9%. In CBB there are ~360 teams so as a percentage the 68/~360 is roughly double at 19%.

This is totally anecdotal but it just "feels" to me like the rich-to-poor gap in CFB is bigger then that gap in CBB.

Are the spreads equivalent?

In any case he ( @betarhoalphadelta ) specifically said 16 seed and you beat up a strawman by using 5th seeded SDSU and 9th seeded FAU.

Note that in addition to the fact that neither of them were #16 seeds, neither of them actually won either.

It is easy to forget this because making it to a S16 seems like such a big deal (especially to someone like you and I who are fans of a dysfunctional BB program) but remember that it takes six Tournament wins to win an NC:
  • Making the S16 is only 1/3 of the way there.
  • Making the E8 is only 1/2 way there.
  • Making the F4 (#9 FAU) is only 2/3 of the way.
And I chose the 16-seed thing deliberately. 

CD's example was UAB, a team that in his scenario ONLY made the CFP by virtue of being the top-ranked G5 conference champ. In essence, we're talking about a team that shouldn't be there, but is based on auto-bid.

In the NCAAT example, this would be seeds 13 through 16, with maybe a few 12s mixed in. Teams that really should NOT be there and don't have a chance, but get in based on automatic bids. 

A 13-seed had never even won a second weekend game until 2022 (thanks to Purdue yay!). A 16-seed had never won a round of 64 game until a few years ago (thanks to UVA and Purdue yay!). 

If the goal is to make the CFP a participation trophy much like the NCAAT, then you should make it probably 24 teams (similar to NCAAT as far as percentage of total teams), auto-bid every conference champ, and let in a bunch of P4 teams who finish at 8-4. None of them will win, mind you, but at least "making the playoff" then becomes something of value. Much like the NCAAT, it's still a small cadre of teams that actually have a chance to win, but everyone else can at least say they got to the dance.  

MaximumSam

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #352 on: September 13, 2023, 07:43:42 PM »

Quote
If the goal is to make the CFP a participation trophy much like the NCAAT, then you should make it probably 24 teams (similar to NCAAT as far as percentage of total teams), auto-bid every conference champ, and let in a bunch of P4 teams who finish at 8-4. None of them will win, mind you, but at least "making the playoff" then becomes something of value. Much like the NCAAT, it's still a small cadre of teams that actually have a chance to win, but everyone else can at least say they got to the dance.  
Maybe, but isn't that exactly what you were saying used to be the case and is now lost under the current rules? Wouldn't having more teams having more to play for liven up pretty much every league and fan base? That good seasons are rewarded substantially and the media pays attention to everyone, not just the half dozen teams with a shot at the playoff? 

MaximumSam

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #353 on: September 13, 2023, 07:51:32 PM »

Quote
It is easy to forget this because making it to a S16 seems like such a big deal (especially to someone like you and I who are fans of a dysfunctional BB program) but remember that it takes six Tournament wins to win an NC:
  • Making the S16 is only 1/3 of the way there.
  • Making the E8 is only 1/2 way there.
  • Making the F4 (#9 FAU) is only 2/3 of the way.
Yes! This is exactly my point. I can barely remember who wins the basketball championship year after year. It almost doesn't matter, because college basketball has lots of levels of success. Programs can hang banners for Sweet Sixteens and Final Fours, despite not winning a championship. That, coupled with the fact that every team knows exactly how they can win a championship before the first whistle, makes college basketball have the best postseason in sports by a pretty fair margin. 


I'm not saying that college football needs to copy the tourney. But they should take note that obsessing about winning a championship makes no sense - the goal is get more involvement from more fans for more teams, and the only way to do that is to give everyone something to play for. So, clear paths to the postseason for every team make a heck of a lot more sense than restricting access to the same teams every year. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #354 on: September 13, 2023, 08:23:33 PM »
Maybe, but isn't that exactly what you were saying used to be the case and is now lost under the current rules? Wouldn't having more teams having more to play for liven up pretty much every league and fan base? That good seasons are rewarded substantially and the media pays attention to everyone, not just the half dozen teams with a shot at the playoff?
Maybe. But we're not there. 

Non-helmets used to gauge their success on w/l record and the level of bowl game they made it to. Success was making it to, and hopefully winning, a meaningless bowl game. It was at least fun and something fans looked forward to. 

Now, non-helmets are mostly shut out of the playoff and are non-factors if they get lucky and make it in a miracle year. And meaningless bowl games are devalued because the playoff has sucked all the oxygen out of the room. 

Maybe in the future the playoff will expand to be its own "participation trophy" like the NCAAT. Where teams view "making the playoff" as a successful season even though they know they have no realistic chance at winning it. They don't "have more to play for". They're not playing for the national championship. They're playing for the prestige of making the dance. The CFP just replaces the bowls. 

MaximumSam

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #355 on: September 13, 2023, 08:31:59 PM »

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They're playing for the prestige of making the dance. The CFP just replaces the bowls. 
Well, yes. I'm not one that every sport has to resemble another, but there is a reason pretty much every sport everywhere has a playoff like format to determine a champion. It's fair, and it's fun. The bowl system started more or less as an exhibition and sort of sloppily evolved into the college football postseason. It was fun but always kind of stupid.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #356 on: September 13, 2023, 09:43:16 PM »
I am of the opinion that nearly everyone here is literate and pretty smart, else we would go elsewhere.  I think some folks here are very smart, maybe most folks, probably smarter than I am (which isn't a high bar).  If I thought folks here were on the intellectual level of "illiterate goat herders" (who might be smart also, just ignorant), I'd move elsewhere to a site more in keeping with what I perceived as my own massive intellect.

You took that literally.
Need I say more?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #357 on: September 13, 2023, 09:48:48 PM »
This thread has devolved to talking about a B1G team joining the MAC and UAB beating 3 helmet teams having elite seasons.

“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #358 on: September 13, 2023, 09:56:02 PM »
This thread has devolved to talking about a B1G team joining the MAC and UAB beating 3 helmet teams having elite seasons.
Four. The three was corrected.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #359 on: September 13, 2023, 10:02:36 PM »
Four. The three was corrected.
Exactly.    :73:
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MaximumSam

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #360 on: September 13, 2023, 10:25:01 PM »
This thread has devolved to talking about a B1G team joining the MAC and UAB beating 3 helmet teams having elite seasons.


Hey, it's an improvement on the previous conversation on how horrible it would be if we don't Maximize Profit for the Shareholders.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #361 on: September 14, 2023, 08:53:08 AM »
Yes! This is exactly my point. I can barely remember who wins the basketball championship year after year. It almost doesn't matter, because college basketball has lots of levels of success. Programs can hang banners for Sweet Sixteens and Final Fours, despite not winning a championship. That, coupled with the fact that every team knows exactly how they can win a championship before the first whistle, makes college basketball have the best postseason in sports by a pretty fair margin.


I'm not saying that college football needs to copy the tourney. But they should take note that obsessing about winning a championship makes no sense - the goal is get more involvement from more fans for more teams, and the only way to do that is to give everyone something to play for. So, clear paths to the postseason for every team make a heck of a lot more sense than restricting access to the same teams every year.
Here is the thing.  I have repeatedly used as my examples of the type of fan that I think we are pushing away three people:
The three are somewhat similar in that they are (or at least were) HUGE CFB fans who root for (graduated from) a school that is NOT a helmet nor would I quite call those schools "Helmet adjacent" like an aTm or Clemson.  These are schools for whom winning the NC was never a very realistic possibility.  I have a slight disagreement with beta here as I think that a school like Purdue had a plausible NC chance prior to the BCS where he thinks they had no chance but that disagreement is unimportant because we are talking about something like basically 1/10,000 per generation as opposed to 0 per generation.  In either case, the chance of winning the NC wasn't really driving CFB fandom among PU/MSU/TxTech fans.  


I am of the opinion that losing fans like the three aforementioned guys should be a HUMONGOUS warning sign.  We (on this board) aren't "average".  Most people and even most CFB fans don't spend time even on team message boards let alone conference message boards.  We are the outliers and if changes in the sport are pushing even some of us away, there are issues.  The third example, Utee's friend is similar in that he was a TxTech fan who hosted tailgates, and drove something like 12 hours roundtrip to most TxTech home games, etc.  

Prior to expansion these three guys believed that their teams had "something to play for".  I think I had always kinda assumed that it was that 1/10,000 per generation NC shot but that is probably because I'm a helmet team fan so I think that way.  To us (you and me @MaximumSam ) the NC has ALWAYS been a big consideration in our fandom because we root for a team that is regularly in the NC race and has won a few NC's in our lifetimes as well as multiple prior NC's that they old folks talked about when we were kids.  Beta has made it clear in these discussions that his fandom had nothing to do with the miniscule chance that Purdue had at an NC (which he doesn't even believe existed) but he (and ELA and Utee's TxTech friend) DID still follow the sport intensely, why?  Well, it seems based on the "things to play for" that their teams did have such as:
  • Beating rivals
  • Potential to win the conference and thus go to a MAJOR Bowl (see PU 2000)
  • Potential to win a MAJOR Bowl
  • Chance to upset a Helmet
  • Chance to impact the NC race by upsetting a helmet (see MSU, 1998 or PU 2018)
  • Chance to win the NC
I left NC chance on the list because I still think it existed but I put it last because it obviously wasn't a primary driver for beta nor probably the others.  

So now looking at @MaximumSam 's quoted post it just feels silly to me because it feels like we are now trying to give them something (a reason to watch) that they ALREADY had and have only been deprived of because of changes that we made.  Following Max's logic here the best case scenario is that we get back to where we already were.  

Why take the enormous risk of losing guys like the three listed above when the ultimate payoff is no improvement at all?

People have talked about great playoff games and I get that but those aren't really new.  We are simply trading important regular season games for important playoff games.  We haven't actually gained anything.  

In the old days Ohio State's random midseason games were ALL important because a single loss (MSU '98, PU '18, etc) might cost tOSU the NC (or at least a shot at it).  Early in this thread @ELA related a story of a bunch of kids literally NONE of whom were tOSU or IU fans stopping what they were doing (backyard football) to run inside and watch because IU was in tied with tOSU.  That type of thing has happend all over the country for decades because for decades EVERY GAME MATTERED.  If Ohio State had an off week and lost to IU that might knock them out of the NC.  If Bama had an off week and lost to MissSt that might knock them out of the NC.  As you expand the playoff you lose that because a single random upset loss no longer has the impact that it used to.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #362 on: September 14, 2023, 09:00:39 AM »

  • Beating rivals
  • Potential to win the conference and thus go to a MAJOR Bowl (see PU 2000)
  • Potential to win a MAJOR Bowl
  • Chance to upset a Helmet
  • Chance to impact the NC race by upsetting a helmet (see MSU, 1998 or PU 2018)
  • Chance to win the NC

I like this list.  I sort of follow some FB discussion by Georgia Tech fans (all four of them I think).  Today they aspire to get to a bowl game, any bowl, and holefully upset someone (they seem realistic about this), or even play a rival tough while losing.  Tech students have become more "Asian" over the past decades, and they tend not to care about football.  So the student body has leaned to apathetic and attendance can be dominated by opposing fans (Clemson, UGA).  Tech has decent CFB history, "back in the day", but now are sort of a bottom feeding ACC team, not good, going through coaches.

How can one perk up that situation?  Obviously finding a great coach would be terrific, but the fan base needs some reason to "believe" and view 9-4 as being a really good year.  I suspect most older Tech fans have given up and barely follow the team any more.  Paul Johnson at least gave them a shot with a quirky offense.  I think the program is dying, starved of resources and fan interest.  The new system likely will make it all worse.



MaximumSam

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #363 on: September 14, 2023, 09:26:26 AM »

Quote
Why take the enormous risk of losing guys like the three listed above when the ultimate payoff is no improvement at all?
Well, I would definitely disagree on their being no improvement. We already killed the big games by making them "data points" instead of games where the results matter. Games should matter! The results should matter. Last year, Michigan and Purdue played in the Big Ten championship. It was a meaningless game, because Michigan still would have enough "data points" to make the playoffs and Purdue had no path even if they won the conference. Meaningless games are what is making the sport bland, and there are far, far too many of them. 

 

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