header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: Rich get richer

 (Read 40529 times)

MaximumSam

  • Guest
Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #252 on: September 10, 2023, 07:10:10 AM »
If I'm advocating for the playoff to be exclusive for completely different reasons than TV execs, then you're being dishonest by lumping us together.

Both a bee and an airplane can fly, but why the hell would anyone lump the two together?!? 

Go away.
Don't blame me, I voted for Nixon for Good Reasons

MrNubbz

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 19996
  • Liked:
Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #253 on: September 10, 2023, 07:43:32 AM »
No ya didn't you're to young,although what's going on today makes him look like a choir boy 
"Let us endeavor so to live - that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 82786
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #254 on: September 10, 2023, 11:00:40 AM »
Both a bee and an airplane can fly, but why the hell would anyone lump the two together?!? 
Because they both can fly?

They share a common feature,  they also both have wings.  That's about it I think.

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 14536
  • Liked:
Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #255 on: September 10, 2023, 11:47:57 AM »
So when your biggest objection is that the have nots sneaks their way into the postseason, you are 100% aligned with the ESPN execs who want the championship game to be in prime time on Monday night between Ohio State and Georgia.
Baptist and bootlegger scenario, my friend. 

The Baptist wants prohibition because they're against alcohol. The bootlegger wants prohibition because it's a lot more lucrative to sell a black market good than a legal good. 

That doesn't mean the Baptist is doing what they're doing in order to seek alignment with the bootlegger's interests.

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 21786
  • Liked:
Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #256 on: September 10, 2023, 11:49:20 AM »
Because they both can fly?

They share a common feature,  they also both have wings.  That's about it I think.
Right, I'm not concerned if my wanting the 2 best teams to play for the NC happens to coincide with what TV networks want.  He's acting like I'm their toady or something.  I don't give a shit about TV networks, I care about the best regular season in sports and deserving teams playing to see who's best.
There is a bullshit narrative that if you possess any nuance beyond W/L record, that you want 4-5*-packed teams to play for the NC, regardless of record.  NO ONE HAS EVER SUGGESTED THAT, EVER.
It's not W/L record only.  That's childish.  Schedule matters.  Margin of victory matters.  Good wins AND bad losses matter.  Talent matters. 
Why do I have to apologize for that last one?  TCU can upset a Michigan.  Boise can upset an OU.  Upsets can be fun.  Their rarity makes them special.
Upsets aren't a great idea to determine a champion. 
I understand that sports are entertainment for we the fans, but for the players and coaches, it's competition.  That needs to remain balanced.  Expanded playoffs and Cinderella stories skew it towards entertainment and away from competition. 
Now on TCU, here's where the problem lies.  Ignore all of the above, if you want.  Having them in the playoff is inclusive, right?  But it's a lie.
Here, TCU, beat 2 of UGA, OSU, and UM.  Welcome to the playoff!  You're in!  Celebrate!
I admit, I have no idea how many times a team that is a 7.5 pt underdog in one game and then a 13.5 pt dog in their next game and has won both.  Mathematically, it's .21 x .26 = 5% or so.  Great, right?  TCU had a 5% chance at winning the NC, that's a non-zero number and hugs all around!!
Sorry, no.
I don't want a NCG to be a 95/5 split.  That seems insane to me.  Who wants that? 
Maybe if TCU had beaten K-State, maybe.  The numbers would have been a little better, but still reeeeally bad.
Don't we want NC games to be as close to 50/50 as possible?  Don't we want to avoid foregone conclusions? 

It was statistically over before halftime.
This was predictable.
This was the consensus.

Sam likes to pretend that suggesting a more talented team with 1 more loss would be an outrageous crime against the baby Jesus if you included it in the playoff over TCU. 
All I'm honestly pining for is choosing the playoff teams based on the most amount of data and evidence possible. 

I don't want conference championships games to be literally meaningless. 
I don't want teams seeded to avoid rematches.
I want the best, most qualified teams playing to determine a champion. 
This isn't the space for inclusive feel-good stories.  It's for competition.  You know, being competitive.

I know, I know, TCU's game vs Michigan was great fun.  It was close in the end.  It got the people going!
It was a big upset.  Big upsets rarely (if ever) happen 2 games in a row. Every eyeball watching that game saw UM playing poorly.  Performing like dogshit.  Especially the UM eyeballs.  TCU, despite having played close games vs lesser teams, played extremely well.  They showed up.  They did great.  They had to.  If TCU had played like dogshit, would they have only lost by score like UM did?  No.  They'd lose badly.  Something like 65-7.  That's the "played with their hair on fire" phrasing comes from.  TCU played better than they had shown and UM played worse.  Kudos to TCU for that.  The won.  I'm not trying to take that away from them.
But to pretend like it wasn't a big upset is dishonest.  Why is that a naughty thing to say?  I simply don't understand it. 

Teams don't/can't perform so much better than they've shown 2 games in a row.  I am 100% sure there are exceptions, but frankly, I'm too busy focusing on the 99.7% of the time the exceptions don't happen.  Sue me.

Yes, Alabama should have been in over TCU.  Or Tennessee.  Or USC.  Hell, USC had a better argument, as they only lost to 1 team.  Clemson would have been a better playoff participant than TCU.
No, all of them wouldn't have beaten UM.  Maybe none of them would.  But all of them would have a better (much better) than 5% chance at winning the NC.  Not because I jerk off to helmet teams.  Not because I have a secret shrine to TV networks complete w/ a hair doll. 

But simply because they'd be a more accurate champion.  A more likely to be the actual best team, even though we can never truly know that. 













« Last Edit: September 10, 2023, 11:57:33 AM by OrangeAfroMan »
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 21786
  • Liked:
Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #257 on: September 10, 2023, 11:51:10 AM »
The percentages used are from data from 1997-2013, including 11,000 games (22K+ outcomes).
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 82786
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #258 on: September 10, 2023, 12:03:28 PM »
All playoffs generate a "playoff champion", all of them.  None are really intended to reward the "best team", though it happens of course.  The "best team" will likely NOT win three games in a row against upper level teams.  Some here prefer the old bowl system with its idiosyncracies, including me.

What I prefer of course is perhaps amusing but hardly relevant, we havea playoff in CFB and that won't change, though the design of course will.

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 21786
  • Liked:
Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #259 on: September 10, 2023, 12:08:13 PM »
All playoffs generate a "playoff champion", all of them.  None are really intended to reward the "best team", though it happens of course.  The "best team" will likely NOT win three games in a row against upper level teams.  Some here prefer the old bowl system with its idiosyncracies, including me.

What I prefer of course is perhaps amusing but hardly relevant, we havea playoff in CFB and that won't change, though the design of course will.
Absolutely right.
But a playoff can more likely reward the "best team."  That's really all I'm advocating for.  Making that attempt.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 82786
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #260 on: September 10, 2023, 12:12:11 PM »
Bama attempted to beat Texas yesterday too ...

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 21786
  • Liked:
Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #261 on: September 10, 2023, 12:48:32 PM »
As long as everyone tried their best.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 82786
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #262 on: September 10, 2023, 12:53:43 PM »
As the outcomes have no more impact on me than I allow them to have, I go with the flow realizing I have no infuence over any of it.  If "they" want a 128 game playoff, so be it, I'll respond accordingly with things I can control.

Money drives all of this (duh) and that won't change.

It's entertainment, if it's not, don't pay attention.

MaximumSam

  • Guest
Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #263 on: September 10, 2023, 01:00:10 PM »

Quote
Teams don't/can't perform so much better than they've shown 2 games in a row.  I am 100% sure there are exceptions, but frankly, I'm too busy focusing on the 99.7% of the time the exceptions don't happen.  Sue me.
I would say that's my major problem with your viewpoint. You say competition matters, but in reality, you would take a losing team over a winning team if they have better recruiting rankings, all for "accuracy." It's the same with the playoff committee, so it's not an unpopular view. 


My major problem with college football is too many poindexters thinking they know best, when it would be much easier, more fun, and more fair to let them decide it on the field.

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 21786
  • Liked:
Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #264 on: September 10, 2023, 01:03:04 PM »
I would say that's my major problem with your viewpoint. You say competition matters, but in reality, you would take a losing team over a winning team if they have better recruiting rankings, all for "accuracy."
This can't possibly be the takeaway from my post above.  I refuse to believe you read it and think this.  It's impossible.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MaximumSam

  • Guest
Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #265 on: September 10, 2023, 01:05:33 PM »
This can't possibly be the takeaway from my post above.  I refuse to believe you read it and think this.  It's impossible.
All I'm honestly pining for is choosing the playoff teams based on the most amount of data and evidence possible. 

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.