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Topic: Rich get richer

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #154 on: September 06, 2023, 12:33:14 PM »
You just posted a lot of data about how the non-helmet teams could impact the MNC, but under the new system the non-helmets actually can play for the title.  You know, #4-12, mostly consisting of non-helmet teams, many of whom will have 2-3 losses, sometimes close losses that could've went either way. 

I find that all of this drivel is mostly coming from the fans of the helmet teams.  I swear, the old system was like a boxing match where 90% of the matches are decided by judges, not a KO.  Nothing more than a beauty pageant where the helmet teams are always given the benefit of the doubt.  I don't like them but TCU played their way into the championship game over Michigan, if it was up to the playoff committee they would've never been given the chance.  In 1998 KSU was screwed over the chance to play for a title because they were a non-helmet team and they lost a close game to a really good A&M team, whereas OU was giftwrapped the chance to play in the 2003 CG after losing to KSU in that title game. 

Imagine how strange it would be for there to be two superbowl champions, or two world series champs. 

I'm always in favor of settling it on the field.  The best team wins.  One true champion, and if the helmets prevail then so be it.
First of all, your team is not that far below a helmet and has shown a willingness and ability to spend with the big boys on NIL so they just might manage to obtain enough talent to win two or more playoff games and win an NC so you aren't really the type of fan I'm worried about our sport losing.

@betarhoalphadelta , @ELA , and @utee94 's TxTech fan friend are in a different situation. Their teams are never going to have enough top-level talent to win a four-team playoff.

You brought up TCU and that they beat Michigan in a CFP game. You said that the committee would never have given them a shot. Well, that is obviously wrong, the committee gave them a spot even though they lost their CG and looked a lot less impressive than other candidates.

That win over Michigan is just one of those examples of "upsets happen". Sometimes the .500 Purdue team takes out otherwise undefeated Ohio State but how did that work out for TCU when they got to the CG?

TCU making the CG last year doesn't prove that non-helmets can win in this system, it is proof of this:
That is true. But teams 5-12 will have to win 4 consecutive games against the best of the best to win that title.

Is it possible? Yes. But CFB doesn't have the same level of parity as the NFL where a 9-7 wild card team can go on a run and beat the 18-0 Patriots to win the Super Bowl.

IMHO it's harder for a non-helmet to win the title in the new system than the old.
Purdue is always going to be at a talent deficit relative to tOSU/PSU/M. In the past they could still potentially win the league by ducking one on the schedule, upsetting one, and catching one in turmoil. Now with a CG? Well they made it to the CG last year, that worked out as well for them as TCU making the CFPCG.
I cannot emphasize this enough.  Let them settle it on the field, you know like they do in every other sport.
What made the CFB regular season special was that a random Purdue/tOSU (2018), Bama/Mizzou (1975), or Tx/TxTech (2008) game might significantly impact the NC. Each regular season game mattered because each one *COULD* change the whole season. Not anymore.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #155 on: September 06, 2023, 12:42:50 PM »
I know this might be difficult for a helmet fan to understand... But no, we plebes don't define our seasons solely based upon the ability to ruin yours. Even though my team has proudly worn the "Spoilermakers" moniker from time to time, we also want something to play for beyond spoiling your fun.

In the old setup, a school like Purdue had a chance at a conference championship, and a chance at a trip to a Rose Bowl that meant something. A Rose Bowl that, while for us wouldn't have NC implications, would be the sort of game that a national audience tuned in to simply because it was the Rose Bowl, the granddaddy of them all. It was a destination, one that any team in the B1G was proud to make it to.

The difference now is that with an 18-team conference and CCG, it's unlikely a team like Purdue will ever even appear in a CCG much less have a chance to win it. And now, even if Purdue got into some sort of crazy scenario where they had a dream season, appeared in the CFP, and their game was held at the Rose Bowl, it is no longer a destination. It's merely a stepping stone (where they'd likely get eliminated of course) with zero standalone value as a game. It's both almost unattainable in the new system, but at the same time meaningless for a team like Purdue if they actually do attain it.

In 2018 we enjoyed improbably beating a really good team, under the lights, with much of the country watching and collectively asking themselves "WTF is happening???" Yeah, it derailed your CFP hopes that year, but it was OUR win that we cheered, not YOUR loss.
I do actually get that you, as a Purdue fan, cheered Purdue's win more that tOSU's loss but recall that one of the catalysts to this whole discussion was @ELA sharing a story of playing backyard football as a kid and pausing their game to run inside and watch because dad came out and yelled that Indiana was tied with Ohio State.

@ELA grew up as AAA in Ann Arbor as a Michigan fan and probably none of the kids involved were Indiana fans. They weren't watching to see if Indiana would win, they were watching to see if Ohio State would lose.

The same applies to the 2018 Purdue upset of Ohio State. The Purdue and Ohio State fans were going to watch regardless. The extra viewers were ALL watching to see if Ohio State would lose. Kids playing backyard football in Alabama in Roll Tide gear paused their games to go see if Ohio State would lose.

Next year, when we have a 12 team playoff if Purdue beats tOSU/M/PSU will anyone outside the Midwest even notice?

Gigem

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #156 on: September 06, 2023, 01:07:05 PM »
Quote
You brought up TCU and that they beat Michigan in a CFP game. You said that the committee would never have given them a shot. Well, that is obviously wrong, the committee gave them a spot even though they lost their CG and looked a lot less impressive than other candidates.


I stated that poorly.  What I meant was under the old system, whether it be BCS computers or the polls or whatever system we had in the past they would never have given TCU a shot.  

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #157 on: September 06, 2023, 01:24:36 PM »
Purdue is always going to be at a talent deficit relative to tOSU/PSU/M. In the past they could still potentially win the league by ducking one on the schedule, upsetting one, and catching one in turmoil. 
And yet I also know the level of privilege that Purdue has just be being part of the B1G. Obviously financially, but also due to recruiting. 

I used to slight Darrell Hazell as killing our recruiting down to recruiting like the MAC... Until I actually looked into it. Hazell recruited better than any MAC team every one of his four years, with the exception of ONE team (don't remember which) that finished ranked like 3 spots higher in ONE year. 

The likely WORST Purdue coach in history, worst recruiting in the B1G over that stretch, still recruited a team that would (on paper) dominate the MAC. 

If Purdue is playing for nothing, they're playing for even less. And yet the money is still too good being part of FBS for the G5 to want to split. 

Gigem

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #158 on: September 06, 2023, 01:42:11 PM »
First of all, your team is not that far below a helmet and has shown a willingness and ability to spend with the big boys on NIL so they just might manage to obtain enough talent to win two or more playoff games and win an NC so you aren't really the type of fan I'm worried about our sport losing.

@betarhoalphadelta , @ELA , and @utee94 's TxTech fan friend are in a different situation. Their teams are never going to have enough top-level talent to win a four-team playoff.

You brought up TCU and that they beat Michigan in a CFP game. You said that the committee would never have given them a shot. Well, that is obviously wrong, the committee gave them a spot even though they lost their CG and looked a lot less impressive than other candidates.

That win over Michigan is just one of those examples of "upsets happen". Sometimes the .500 Purdue team takes out otherwise undefeated Ohio State but how did that work out for TCU when they got to the CG?

TCU making the CG last year doesn't prove that non-helmets can win in this system, it is proof of this:Purdue is always going to be at a talent deficit relative to tOSU/PSU/M. In the past they could still potentially win the league by ducking one on the schedule, upsetting one, and catching one in turmoil. Now with a CG? Well they made it to the CG last year, that worked out as well for them as TCU making the CFPCG. What made the CFB regular season special was that a random Purdue/tOSU (2018), Bama/Mizzou (1975), or Tx/TxTech (2008) game might significantly impact the NC. Each regular season game mattered because each one *COULD* change the whole season. Not anymore.
I would say that A&M is definitely in that 2nd tier status, just below the helmets.  Somewhere in the 18-22 range.  So good enough to be in the conversation at times, but never with enough luck (TCU) to make it in to the dance.  2020 season still stings from that view point.  

You're somewhat mistaken about winning the 4 games in a row because you think it will always be the Purdue's vs the Bama's.  Sometimes it will be, but often it will be the Purdue's vs the KSU's or the oSu's.  Sometimes Bama will get beat out by the Ole Miss of CFB.  It's not always about talent.  If it is, just don't play the games and give the trophy out to the recruiting champs.  

You're still not understanding what I'm trying to say.  All of us non-helmet teams know this.  The system is rigged.  It's nothing more than a beauty pageant the way it's set up now and has been for at least 50-75 years.  Those teams that were good in the 50's and 60's got their name cemented at the top of the CFB world and have been able to remain there.  It takes decades to get somebody off the list.  I guarantee you right now if you took a poll of all the helmet teams Nebraska and Tennessee are on that list and LSU and Florida are not, even though each team has more MNC's this century than they do (5 vs 0).  

All the helmet teams are helmet teams literally because they take a poll and decide who's on top.  A poll made up of people's opinion.  The helmet teams are always given the benefit of the doubt.  Notre Dame could go 0-12 next year and the following year they would start at #10.  OU and Alabama lose their CCG, they play for the title.  oSu loses one game by a last second FG, they get the Alamo bowl (edit I think they got the Rose, but not the chance to play for the BCS).  KSU loses in OT, they get the Alamo.  

You seem so convinced that I care whether or not IU can beat OSU or A&M can just knock off 'Bama and ruin their season.  F no.  I want my own team to win every game, I want to play for all the marbles not just be the asteroid in the belt that bounces another asteroid that causes it to smash into the earth.  

You keep insisting that ONE GAME can change the course of CFB history, but why does that one game have to come in the middle of the season and not the end?  TCU may have gotten smoked in the CFB final but at least they had their shot.  

I ask again:  What is wrong with letting the teams settle it on the field instead of in the polls?  

Gigem

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #159 on: September 06, 2023, 01:59:00 PM »
Quote
Next year, when we have a 12 team playoff if Purdue beats tOSU/M/PSU will anyone outside the Midwest even notice?


I honestly didn't know that Purdue even played for the CCG.  I follow CFB, I get on these message boards and duke it out with all of my college football like-minded people.  But I doubt any other fans outside of the Midwest really care about TOSU/PSU any more than myself.  I couldn't tell you when Purdue (is it PU or UP ;)) beat tOSU, hell I didn't even remember that happening and I do watch a good amount of CFB.  When it comes to the Big 10, my impression as an outsider is it's 90% Michigan and tOSU, and 8% PSU, and the a few percent Mich St, and that's about it.  I'm sure you feel the same way about the SEC being all about Bama, Florida, and Georgia. 


medinabuckeye1

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #160 on: September 06, 2023, 02:01:46 PM »
I ask again:  What is wrong with letting the teams settle it on the field instead of in the polls?

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #161 on: September 06, 2023, 02:12:44 PM »
I ask again:  What is wrong with letting the teams settle it on the field instead of in the polls? 
I can't speak for medina, but there's actually nothing wrong with it being settled on the field.

I argued in the past for the 5+1+2 playoff (5 of the P5 champs, top G5 champ, 2 at-large) because it would bring back the value of the conference championship. Want to go to the playoff? Win your damn conference. It's in your control, it is not poll- or committee-based, and you get into the playoff based on what you accomplish on the field. It's true that the G5 champ might be a bit of a beauty pageant (top ranked), and obviously the 2 at-large is a beauty pageant, but every conference that matters has a clear and objective entry path to the CFP.

We now have that in the 12-team playoff. Top 6 ranked conference champs get in. While there is some subjectivity there (what if 2 G5 champs are higher ranked than one terrible backdoor P5 champ?), it's almost clear and objective. Certainly an improvement on objectivity compared to the committee and 4-team CFP.

However, if you go back and read medina's original post in this thread, it was less about the playoff and more about the entire changing tapestry of the sport. It's about the transfer portal and NIL, not about the playoff. It was about a system that was rigged, to be sure, but that seems to be getting MORE rigged year by year.

I believe that a lot of the changes from 1970->recently were about increasing parity, rather than decreasing. Continual reduction of the scholarship limits. Restrictions on the number of on-field coaches. Investigation (although imperfect) for shady recruiting / bagmen / pay-for-play. Efforts to cracking down on oversigning. Transfer restrictions to reduce the ability for one school to poach another's players, as a player would have to sit out a year.

You can argue that some of these (lack of money via NIL or explicit pay-for-play, and transfer restrictions) are unfair to players, and perhaps you'd be right. But they improved parity in the sport.

NIL and the transfer portal will reduce parity in the sport. Which, as someone who was a fan of a "peasant" per Mandel, basically means that as the rich get richer (medina's post title), the have-nots like my school will be increasingly excluded from competition. Edited to add: One more aspect is now the 18-team conference, and the potential for eliminating divisions and making the CCG the "two best teams" in the conference, rather than division winners. This makes it even less likely that my team would get to play for, much less be likely to have a chance in, a conference championship game. It's a numbers game.

It's true, a 12-team CFP theoretically means there's greater opportunity for a school like mine to actually get to play for the title. But the flipside of NIL / transfer portal is that it is MUCH less likely that a school like mine can recruit and keep enough talent to practically ever get there.

I believe that lack of parity will be bad for the sport, long-term. It's one of the reasons I no longer watch Purdue athletics. It no longer interests me when the deck was already stacked against my school and the changes in the game make it even more so.

Gigem

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #162 on: September 06, 2023, 02:13:41 PM »
So as long as the system is rigged for the betterment of your team you're happy with the system, but when we make it more equal for the rest we're killing the golden goose?  


medinabuckeye1

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #163 on: September 06, 2023, 02:51:47 PM »
So as long as the system is rigged for the betterment of your team you're happy with the system, but when we make it more equal for the rest we're killing the golden goose?
LoL.

As @betarhoalphadelta advised in his last post, go back and read my original post that started this thread.

The changes absolutely have NOT made the sport more equal.  It is more rigged in favor of teams like mine than ever:
  • Years ago if my team suffered an upset loss to a mediocre Purdue (2018) or Michigan State (1998) team, they were out. With a 12-team playoff they'll have a minimum of two mulligans per season and probably three.
  • Years ago if Purdue spotted a "diamond in the rough" and developed him, they might have a better player than mine, now my team gets a chance to poach him.
  • Years ago if my team missed on a few RB recruits in a row they might end up playing a season with crappy RB's, now they'd hit the portal and get AT LEAST a serviceable back.
  • (Not many) Years ago my team had to vacate a season, sucked the next season due to the turmoil and unscheduled coaching change, and had a postseason ban the (undefeated) season after that over a few hundred bucks worth of Bowl swag sold by tOSU players. That seems quite quaint in an era when guys are buying expensive cars with completely legal NIL deal cash.
No, the sport is decidedly NOT more equal now. It is MUCH less equal.


As a fan of a helmet I could simply celebrate this. I'm not, I'm concerned for the long-term health of the sport because we are chasing away fans of non-helmets. If you don't believe me, look at @betarhoalphadelta , @ELA , and the TxTech fan that @utee94 mentioned upthread. All three of them were fans of non-helmet teams, teams a lot less "helmety" than your Aggies. They also weren't just run of the mill fans, they were super fans. They were message board posters and guys who drove 12 hours round trip a bunch of times per year for games. If we are losing them, we are in trouble.

I've come up with some theories as to why we are losing them. You can disagree with my theories and propose your own but to assert that I'm only complaining because the changes don't benefit my team us both wrong (they do) and misses the whole point.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #164 on: September 06, 2023, 07:09:25 PM »

I stated that poorly.  What I meant was under the old system, whether it be BCS computers or the polls or whatever system we had in the past they would never have given TCU a shot. 
Correctly so.  65-7.  
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #165 on: September 06, 2023, 07:10:16 PM »
The new system doesn't open a door for the have-nots, it simply gives the haves a mulligan, maybe two.
« Last Edit: September 06, 2023, 07:23:38 PM by OrangeAfroMan »
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MaximumSam

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #166 on: September 06, 2023, 07:21:30 PM »
Correctly so.  65-7. 
Eh, tough to take that argument seriously. The BCS also gave us FSU over Virginia Tech, Miami over Nebraska, an Oklahoma team that got blown out, USC over Oklahoma, Florida over Ohio State, Bammer over Texas, Bama over LSU, and Bama over Notre Dame. Your "correct" system gave us all sorts of blowouts. At least last year we got some good playoff games. Tough to make any sort of cogent argument that the BCS was gave us more deserving teams or more entertainment, which is why it was wisely sent to the garbage bin of failures.

The new system absolutely does give more teams a chance. Saying otherwise is just silly. 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Rich get richer
« Reply #167 on: September 06, 2023, 07:29:47 PM »
Then I guess everyone besides you is silly.

You can treat 65-7 as just another whatever blowout loss.  
But it wasn't.
G5:  let us in!
You're being unfair, let us in!!
Cinci beat ND, you have to let them in!
Let us in, treat us equal!
(TCU loses to KSU, doesn't drop a spot, is allowed in)
WHOAAA GONZO CRAZY UPSET OVER MICHIGAN!!!!
65-7
.
We let them in.
They played balls-to-the-wall, hair-on-fire football to upset a blueblood (while allowing 39 2nd-half points).
Then they had to play another big-boy team.
You can't have the 1980 US hockey team beat Russia in consecutive weeks.
65-7 was different.  It could have been worse.  That's the part you're ignoring.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

 

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