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Topic: Rich get richer
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847badgerfan · « **Reply #182 on:** September 07, 2023, 09:28:10 AM »

I remember watching the end of that 2001 season closely.

I really thought 11-1 Oregon should have been the opponent for Miami. Only loss was midseason to a very good Stanford team.

They were the ones who stomped Colorado in the Fiesta. They were the ones with the speed to maybe give Miami a game. They had Joey Heisman.

utee94 · « **Reply #183 on:** September 07, 2023, 09:35:31 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2023, 09:28:10 AM

I remember watching the end of that 2001 season closely.

I really thought 11-1 Oregon should have been the opponent for Miami. Only loss was midseason to a very good Stanford team.

They were the ones who stomped Colorado in the Fiesta. They were the ones with the speed to maybe give Miami a game. They had Joey Heisman.

It was a crazy end to the season, no doubt.

Gigem · « **Reply #184 on:** September 07, 2023, 09:36:22 AM »

Just for kicks I went back and looked at the last poll of the 1998 season (AP poll) and sliced out the top 12 teams:

https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/seasons.cfm?appollid=821

1	<	1	[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Tennessee[/iurl] (70)[/font][/size][/color]	SEC (Southeastern)	12-0	1750	1	W 24-14 N #23 Mississippi State
2	<	4	[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Florida State[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]	ACC (Atlantic Coast)	11-1	1671	2
[color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]3[/font][/size][/color]	[color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]<[/font][/size][/color]	[color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]5[/font][/size][/color]	[color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)][color=var(--bs-link-color)]Ohio State[/iurl][/color][/font][/size][/color]	[color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]Big Ten[/font][/size][/color]	[color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]10-1[/font][/size][/color]	[color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]1602[/font][/size][/color]	[color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]4[/font][/size][/color]	[color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)] [/font][/size][/color]
4	<	2	[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Kansas State[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]	Big 12	11-1	1476	3
5	<	6	[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Arizona[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]	Pac-10	11-1	1412	7	DNP (Did not play)
6	<	3	[color=var(--bs-link-color)]UCLA[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]	Pac-10	10-1	1398	5
7	<	7	[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Florida[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]	SEC (Southeastern)	9-2	1337	8
8	<	10	[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Texas A&M[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]	Big 12	11-2	1310	6
9	<	8	[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Wisconsin[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]	Big Ten	10-1	1176	9
10	<	9	[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Tulane[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]	C-USA (Conference USA)	11-0	1067	10	DNP (Did not play)
11	<	11	[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Arkansas[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]	SEC (Southeastern)	9-2	960	13
12	<	12	[color=var(--bs-link-color)]Georgia Tech[/iurl][/font][/size][/color]	ACC (Atlantic Coast)	9-2	874	14

I picked 1998 in particular because it was a memorable year for me. A&M won the Big 12 over KSU, who then lost their chance to play for the BCS championship. UCLA had a chance to play for the title but had to play a late season game vs Miami and ended up losing. KSU was aware of the UCLA loss, which some have said made them think they had it in the bag while the game was still in doubt. A&M (uncharacteristically) overcame a 4th quarter 15 pt deficit and beat them. Tulane was pretty good, Arkansas was pretty good. Now imagine if these 12 teams all made the playoffs. Whatever format you want to pick, it would make for some pretty good football. I realize that Tulane and GT and Ark would probably be out in the first round, but upsets happen all the time and you could very easily have somebody like Florida winning it all that year or KSU or UCLA. Heck, even a good but not great A&M could have a chance to at least make the 2nd or 3rd round. We did end up playing both FSU and OSU that season, both were losses but as I recall they were competitive games and we just didn't have enough offense to beat either team.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #185 on:** September 07, 2023, 09:44:13 AM »

That late Miami/UCLA game was a makeup due to a hurricane.

UCLA went to the Rose Bowl. Lost to Wisconsin. Fun.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #186 on:** September 07, 2023, 09:50:08 AM »

Quote from: Gigem on September 07, 2023, 07:14:24 AM

Under the old system TCU would have not been given a shot. Michigan is still being defended as being some kind of victim.

Nobody is defending Michigan nor suggesting that they are a victim of some nefarious plot.

What @OrangeAfroMan and I are doing is acknowledging the reality that in a single game situation the best team does NOT always win. Do you disagree?

When the better team loses it defies logic so we come up with imperfect explanations, things like:

The underdogs played with their hair on fire, and
The favorites came out flat.

There are others but we are simply grasping for ways to explain the illogical.

Quote from: Gigem on September 07, 2023, 07:14:24 AM

Or do we just not really care about the scoreboard, just start giving the W to the closest blue blood?

Sure they got their ass kicked in the final. It happens a lot, not much different than many other years. But they played their way into it, and settled it on the field.

OAM and I care a lot more about scoreboards than you do. In the soon-to-be 12-team CFP the scoreboards in the 11 CFP games will matter a lot but the scoreboards in the ~1,500 regular season games will only matter collectively, not individually.

My team has been the most consistent contender in the 80-odd years of the poll era. As such, I have LOTS of examples of seasons in which a single regular season loss (almost always to an inferior opponent) kept my team out of the NC either directly or indirectly. Some examples:

2021 L to M kept tOSU out of CFP
2018 L to PU kept tOSU out of CFP
2015 L to MSU kept tOSU out of CFP
2013 L to MSU kept tOSU out of BCSNCG (I just realized that losses to MSU kept the Buckeyes out of both the first and the last BCSNCG)
2010 L to UW kept tOSU out of BCSNCG
1998 L to MSU kept tOSU out of the inaugural BCSNCG
1996 L to M cost tOSU the NC
1995 L to M cost tOSU the NC
1973 T with M cost tOSU the NC
1969 L to M cost tOSU the NC
1961 T with TCU cost tOSU the NC

Nobody wants to ignore scoreboards and declare the blueblood the winner. In the poll era Ohio State missed out on six NC's (or NC shots) due to only one loss to a non-helmet (MSUX3, PU, UW, TCU).

The new system doesn't make scoreboards matter more, it replaces ~1,500 scoreboards that used to matter with 11 that matter.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #187 on:** September 07, 2023, 10:00:33 AM »

People are trying to argue the CFP in here.

If you go all the way back to @medinabuckeye1 's original post, it's not about the playoff.

It's about the fact that NIL and the transfer portal are tilting the field SO FAR in favor of the blue bloods that fans of every other team in CFB might start losing interest. The CFP may be a part of this, but mostly in that it has completely sucked the postseason air out of the room such that if a non-helmet team goes 8-4 and gets invited to the Punxsutawney Phil Bowl, is that even worth tuning in for? It at least used to be.

There was never true parity, but much of what the sport has done over the last several decades had an intent of increasing parity. NIL and the transfer portal is going FAR in the opposite direction, and may kill interest in the sport if you're not a helmet or helmet-adjacent team. And there may not be enough interest at that point, because all it becomes is a shittier version of the NFL.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #188 on:** September 07, 2023, 10:08:28 AM »

Quote from: Gigem on September 07, 2023, 09:36:22 AM

Just for kicks I went back and looked at the last poll of the 1998 season (AP poll) and sliced out the top 12 teams:

https://collegepollarchive.com/football/ap/seasons.cfm?appollid=821

1 < 1 [color=var(--bs-link-color)]Tennessee[/iurl] (70)[/font][/size][/color] SEC (Southeastern) 12-0 1750 1 W 24-14 N #23 Mississippi State
2 < 4 [color=var(--bs-link-color)]Florida State[/iurl][/font][/size][/color] ACC (Atlantic Coast) 11-1 1671 2
[color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]3[/font][/size][/color] [color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]<[/font][/size][/color] [color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]5[/font][/size][/color] [color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)][color=var(--bs-link-color)]Ohio State[/iurl][/color][/font][/size][/color] [color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]Big Ten[/font][/size][/color] [color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]10-1[/font][/size][/color] [color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]1602[/font][/size][/color] [color=var(--bs-table-hover-color)]4[/font][/size][/color]
4 < 2 [color=var(--bs-link-color)]Kansas State[/iurl][/font][/size][/color] Big 12 11-1 1476 3
5 < 6 [color=var(--bs-link-color)]Arizona[/iurl][/font][/size][/color] Pac-10 11-1 1412 7 DNP (Did not play)
6 < 3 [color=var(--bs-link-color)]UCLA[/iurl][/font][/size][/color] Pac-10 10-1 1398 5
7 < 7 [color=var(--bs-link-color)]Florida[/iurl][/font][/size][/color] SEC (Southeastern) 9-2 1337 8
8 < 10 [color=var(--bs-link-color)]Texas A&M[/iurl][/font][/size][/color] Big 12 11-2 1310 6
9 < 8 [color=var(--bs-link-color)]Wisconsin[/iurl][/font][/size][/color] Big Ten 10-1 1176 9
10 < 9 [color=var(--bs-link-color)]Tulane[/iurl][/font][/size][/color] C-USA (Conference USA) 11-0 1067 10 DNP (Did not play)
11 < 11 [color=var(--bs-link-color)]Arkansas[/iurl][/font][/size][/color] SEC (Southeastern) 9-2 960 13
12 < 12 [color=var(--bs-link-color)]Georgia Tech[/iurl][/font][/size][/color] ACC (Atlantic Coast) 9-2 874 14
I picked 1998 in particular because it was a memorable year for me. A&M won the Big 12 over KSU, who then lost their chance to play for the BCS championship. UCLA had a chance to play for the title but had to play a late season game vs Miami and ended up losing. KSU was aware of the UCLA loss, which some have said made them think they had it in the bag while the game was still in doubt. A&M (uncharacteristically) overcame a 4th quarter 15 pt deficit and beat them. Tulane was pretty good, Arkansas was pretty good. Now imagine if these 12 teams all made the playoffs. Whatever format you want to pick, it would make for some pretty good football. I realize that Tulane and GT and Ark would probably be out in the first round, but upsets happen all the time and you could very easily have somebody like Florida winning it all that year or KSU or UCLA. Heck, even a good but not great A&M could have a chance to at least make the 2nd or 3rd round. We did end up playing both FSU and OSU that season, both were losses but as I recall they were competitive games and we just didn't have enough offense to beat either team.

Sure, (some of) those playoff games would have been fun but if we'd had a 12-team CFP then:

Ohio State's loss to MSU wouldn't have mattered.
KSU's loss to aTm wouldn't have mattered.
Zona's loss to UCLA wouldn't have mattered.
UCLA's loss to Miami wouldn't have mattered.
Wisconsin's loss to Michigan wouldn't have mattered.
Florida's losses to TN and FSU wouldn't have mattered.
Your team's losses to FSU and Texas wouldn't have mattered.
Arkansas' losses to TN and MissSt wouldn't have mattered.
GaTech's losses to BC and FSU wouldn't have mattered.

You simply can't have it both ways. You can either have a big postseason tournament OR you can have regular season games that matter.

Please quit beating up strawmen. Nobody is saying that we don't want games to matter or that we want upsets to be ignored. The debate is over which games matter and when upsets matter.

Gigem · « **Reply #189 on:** September 07, 2023, 10:45:41 AM »

Which is why I've stated that with NIL and Transfer Portal they should reduce the amount of players a team can have, either scholarship or non-scholarship (is scholarships still really needed?). What's the number? I don't know. Maybe 50-60, but with players on a 4 year rotation it seems low. I'm also in favor of a 5th year, but only if a player has been with the same team for more than 2 years. And I think transfer's should be limited to 2 schools.

Seriously, those who cannot keep up with NIL/Facilities/spending and the whole 9 should just split out already. You're already stated how the situation for a program like Purdue is. Their chance or winning the MNC before 2010 = essentially zero. Their chance after NIL/TP etc = Absolute Zero. So they're just basically cannon fodder. If they weren't in the Big 10 from way back, realistically speaking, what conference would they be in? MAC? WAC? There is a line of major/non-major CF programs. A&M barely makes it, but Purdue, TT, IU, ISU do not. It's obvious, and it's inevitable because eventually there is just too much money coming in and the games are just too good. You can't fight the future. You can delay it, you can make it complicated.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #190 on:** September 07, 2023, 11:13:18 AM »

Quote from: Gigem on September 07, 2023, 10:45:41 AM

Seriously, those who cannot keep up with NIL/Facilities/spending and the whole 9 should just split out already. You're already stated how the situation for a program like Purdue is. Their chance or winning the MNC before 2010 = essentially zero. Their chance after NIL/TP etc = Absolute Zero. So they're just basically cannon fodder. If they weren't in the Big 10 from way back, realistically speaking, what conference would they be in? MAC? WAC? There is a line of major/non-major CF programs. A&M barely makes it, but Purdue, TT, IU, ISU do not. It's obvious, and it's inevitable because eventually there is just too much money coming in and the games are just too good. You can't fight the future. You can delay it, you can make it complicated.

But that's what some of you helmet and helmet-adjacent fans don't understand. For us, it was NEVER about winning the MNC.

But even knowing that we're cannon fodder, there was a hierarchy of goals for a team like Purdue:

Win the conference and face the PAC champ in the Rose Bowl. (Happened very rarely for a school like Purdue, but was attainable--at least before the CCG, the NIL/portal, the expansion to 18 teams, and the PAC no longer existing.)
Make it to a NYD bowl. Even if that's just the Outback. An "NYD Bowl" was always an echelon that meant something to fans.
Become bowl-eligible and make it to a bowl somewhere warm (not Detroit) and sunny to give fans an excuse to get the hell out of Indiana. Going with my new fiancee to the 2017 Foster Farms Bowl was a lot of fun, even though it ultimately wasn't a "premier" bowl (and even if it wasn't warm in Santa Clara compared to SoCal lol, but it was a lot warmer than Indiana).
Beat IU.
Beat ND (back when we regularly scheduled them).
Win some big games that we "shouldn't".

The NIL/Portal means that our coaches have to constantly be worried that our top players will be poached. The CFP and realignment have basically meant that goal #1 is gone, goal #2 is mostly gone because "NYD bowl" is now mostly for CFP participants, and the excitement about goal #3 is lessened because the CFP has sucked all the oxygen out of the room.

Back when 2-4 teams each year, whether it was voting or the BCS, were in the MNC discussion, it was a lot easier to find meaning for the other 120+ teams in FBS. Bowl games were meaningless, we all knew it, but they were fun. Now it's CFP or bust, and with the NIL/Portal it's a boot on the throat of the cannon fodder while promising "oh, you have access, it's a 12-team playoff now!"

847badgerfan · « **Reply #191 on:** September 07, 2023, 11:34:57 AM »

I think after this next TV deal expires, football conferences will cease to exist.

You'll have Big Ten hoops and Olympics. PAC (or whatever), SEC, ACC, XII the same. Geographically positioned too.

The fat gets trimmed and only Kings, Barons and Knights are in the big football league, which will simply be a minor league for the NFL.

And I'll be boating and golfing and not watching that shit.

utee94 · « **Reply #192 on:** September 07, 2023, 11:37:37 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2023, 11:34:57 AM

I think after this next TV deal expires, football conferences will cease to exist.

You'll have Big Ten hoops and Olympics. PAC (or whatever), SEC, ACC, XII the same. Geographically positioned too.

The fat gets trimmed and only Kings, Barons and Knights are in the big football league, which will simply be a minor league for the NFL.

And I'll be boating and golfing and not watching that shit.

I know a lot of people believe this, and it would make sense in a lot of ways.

But because football revenues have to support all other sports both at the conference level, and the individual school level, I don't see this ever happening in real life. It will be too difficult-- and more importantly too destructive-- to extricate football from everything else.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #193 on:** September 07, 2023, 01:43:30 PM »

I still think it could happen, with the power league schools funding the conference they came from.

But it would need a reset. The PAC schools would have to get back together. No conference can be more than 10 schools.

Using the 2022 list from Mandel:

So, if the Kings, Barons and Knights from the Big Ten (pre-PSU) were in the power league, it would include Ohio State and Michigan as Kings, Iowa, MSU and Wisconsin as Barons, and Minnesota and Northwestern as Knights.

7 out of the "original" 10 schools are in. Illinois, Indiana and Purdue are left out, but still get a slightly reduced share of football revenue to fund other sports, and their football programs. Football is free to schedule as they wish, as those would be independent.

Now, this works for the Big Ten for sure.

Looking at the PAC (pre-Utah and Colorado) they would have also have 7 of the 10 "originals" in the power league. This works.

Who would get whacked from the XII so they could get to 10? Or do you go to the Big 8 and SWC and add enough schools to those conference to get to 10? Big 8 could grab Utah and BYU probably. SWC would need one more member.

Arky would go back to the SWC as the SEC has to get to 10.

USCe would go to the ACC and bring them to 9, unless FSU is a part of that conference. Then they are at 10.

Then there is the East Coast Conference. PSU, Miami, Cuse, BC, Rutgers, WVU, Pitt, VT, Louisville and Cincy??

SEC should have no issues getting the majority of its members in the power league, sans Vandy.

Peasants include:

utee94 · « **Reply #194 on:** September 07, 2023, 02:11:43 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 07, 2023, 01:43:30 PM

I still think it could happen, with the power league schools funding the conference they came from.

But it would need a reset. The PAC schools would have to get back together. No conference can be more than 10 schools.

Using the 2022 list from Mandel:

So, if the Kings, Barons and Knights from the Big Ten (pre-PSU) were in the power league, it would include Ohio State and Michigan as Kings, Iowa, MSU and Wisconsin as Barons, and Minnesota and Northwestern as Knights.

7 out of the "original" 10 schools are in. Illinois, Indiana and Purdue are left out, but still get a slightly reduced share of football revenue to fund other sports, and their football programs. Football is free to schedule as they wish, as those would be independent.

Now, this works for the Big Ten for sure.

Looking at the PAC (pre-Utah and Colorado) they would have also have 7 of the 10 "originals" in the power league. This works.

Who would get whacked from the XII so they could get to 10? Or do you go to the Big 8 and SWC and add enough schools to those conference to get to 10? Big 8 could grab Utah and BYU probably. SWC would need one more member.

Arky would go back to the SWC as the SEC has to get to 10.

USCe would go to the ACC and bring them to 9, unless FSU is a part of that conference. Then they are at 10.

Then there is the East Coast Conference. PSU, Miami, Cuse, BC, Rutgers, WVU, Pitt, VT, Louisville and Cincy??

SEC should have no issues getting the majority of its members in the power league, sans Vandy.

Peasants include:

What you've just described is so complex and convoluted, that it proves my point. It's never gonna happen.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #195 on:** September 07, 2023, 02:20:01 PM »

Doesn't seem convoluted to me at all.

The "traditional" conferences get to keep all their Olympic sports. The football schools are all like Notre Dame - Independent - except for the divisions they are placed in within the power league.

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Topic: Rich get richer

847badgerfan

Re: Rich get richer

utee94

Re: Rich get richer

Gigem

Re: Rich get richer

847badgerfan

Re: Rich get richer

medinabuckeye1

Re: Rich get richer

betarhoalphadelta

Re: Rich get richer

medinabuckeye1

Re: Rich get richer

Gigem

Re: Rich get richer

betarhoalphadelta

Re: Rich get richer

847badgerfan

Re: Rich get richer

utee94

Re: Rich get richer

847badgerfan

Re: Rich get richer

utee94

Re: Rich get richer

847badgerfan

Re: Rich get richer