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Topic: Retirement / What am I working for?

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Retirement / What am I working for?
« Reply #182 on: May 08, 2024, 04:31:00 PM »
Raise the SS contributions and Medicare contributions.

Pass a law that prevents any of that money from ever being touched, for any reason, period.
Problem is that you're mentally sticking with this stupid "trust fund" idea. It's unnecessary. The government doesn't need to save for a rainy day. It needs to set tax rates that fund its current obligations. 

The simple fact is that the SS/MC tax rates should be actuarially set based upon the demographic mix necessary to raise revenue and then pay recipients. I say jettison that the idea that you need to "save ahead" for the future of the program entirely. 

Set a process that every 5 years, the government determines the projected outlays for SS/MC, and sets the SS/MC taxes necessary for the next 5 years to meet that level of revenue. Any extra goes to the general fund. Any shortfall is made up by the general fund. Repeat. Perhaps you can put in kickers such that if for a 5 year period they were incorrect about the balance between the two, the taxes for the next 5 year period are maybe higher or lower based on the percentage shortfall or overage to try to make it a self-correcting mechanism (and not play politics with the tax rates). 

But we don't need a trust fund... And we don't need what you're suggesting, a lock box (hmm, where have I heard that one before?)...

Cincydawg

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Re: Retirement / What am I working for?
« Reply #183 on: May 08, 2024, 04:34:12 PM »
That's a reasonable idea IFF there isn't going to be a major hump down the road, as there is with Baby Boomers.  So long as the demographics are fairly even and predictable, it should work.  You might need a small buffer that could be dipped into on occasion, and replenished later.




847badgerfan

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Re: Retirement / What am I working for?
« Reply #184 on: May 08, 2024, 04:40:47 PM »
Problem is that you're mentally sticking with this stupid "trust fund" idea. It's unnecessary. The government doesn't need to save for a rainy day. It needs to set tax rates that fund its current obligations.

The simple fact is that the SS/MC tax rates should be actuarially set based upon the demographic mix necessary to raise revenue and then pay recipients. I say jettison that the idea that you need to "save ahead" for the future of the program entirely.

Set a process that every 5 years, the government determines the projected outlays for SS/MC, and sets the SS/MC taxes necessary for the next 5 years to meet that level of revenue. Any extra goes to the general fund. Any shortfall is made up by the general fund. Repeat. Perhaps you can put in kickers such that if for a 5 year period they were incorrect about the balance between the two, the taxes for the next 5 year period are maybe higher or lower based on the percentage shortfall or overage to try to make it a self-correcting mechanism (and not play politics with the tax rates).

But we don't need a trust fund... And we don't need what you're suggesting, a lock box (hmm, where have I heard that one before?)...
And you trust the government to accomplish this? With all due respect, and I mean that whole-heartedly, dream on.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Retirement / What am I working for?
« Reply #185 on: May 08, 2024, 04:48:52 PM »
And you trust the government to accomplish this? With all due respect, and I mean that whole-heartedly, dream on.
Well it's better than running a program in massive deficits and saying "hey, there's no actual problem here; look at this nifty trust fund!"

You come up with an idea "don't let anyone touch that money"--which is essentially what happened. The money was parked in the absolute safest possible investment it could have been. T Bills. As safe as cash (since the only way it would fail is a Treasury default and in that case the cash itself would be worthless), and even earning interest! 

847badgerfan

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Re: Retirement / What am I working for?
« Reply #186 on: May 08, 2024, 04:54:05 PM »
Well it's better than running a program in massive deficits and saying "hey, there's no actual problem here; look at this nifty trust fund!"

You come up with an idea "don't let anyone touch that money"--which is essentially what happened. The money was parked in the absolute safest possible investment it could have been. T Bills. As safe as cash (since the only way it would fail is a Treasury default and in that case the cash itself would be worthless), and even earning interest!
Well, I didn't come up with the idea, so there's that. The fact that it was stolen from, to me, is criminal.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Retirement / What am I working for?
« Reply #187 on: May 08, 2024, 05:01:53 PM »
The money was not stolen, and by law, can only be invested in special T bills.  Nobody stole the money.

The reason the TF is going under is unrelated to any of that.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Retirement / What am I working for?
« Reply #188 on: May 08, 2024, 05:04:24 PM »
Well, I didn't come up with the idea, so there's that. The fact that it was stolen from, to me, is criminal.
Sorry. Based on your response, I realize that the way I phrased that made it likely that it would be interpreted exactly opposite to my meaning.

My point was that nobody "touched" that money, or "stole from" that money, etc. They just weren't going to keep it in cash. It was put into the safest most trustworthy asset that it could possibly be put into. And that asset has been sitting there ready for the Social Security program to access whenever it needs it (and it has been drawing it down for I think most of the last decade).

The problem is that the asset that it was invested in, while extraordinarily safe for the Social Security program, makes claims on American taxpayers either now (taxes) or in the future (deficit spending). 

847badgerfan

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Re: Retirement / What am I working for?
« Reply #189 on: May 08, 2024, 05:10:31 PM »
The money was not stolen, and by law, can only be invested in special T bills.  Nobody stole the money.

The reason the TF is going under is unrelated to any of that.
OK, so they borrowed from it.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Retirement / What am I working for?
« Reply #190 on: May 08, 2024, 05:11:44 PM »
The SSTF invests in special Treasury bills, by law.  As noted, there is no safer investment in the world, and they get interest on it.  It would be silly to hold it in cash somewhere, somehow.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Retirement / What am I working for?
« Reply #191 on: May 08, 2024, 06:09:30 PM »
OK, so they borrowed from it.
Or more accurately, the SSTF invested in safe interest-bearing bonds instead of trying to hold their money in cash and watching its value erode due to inflation. 

BTW my issue is not that the SSTF invested the money. That's prudent. My issue is that they invested it in an asset that will make claims on *me* to pay it back. 

I.e. if Zambia had a social security system and invested its excess contributions in US Treasury Bills, that would be good for their system and for the future Zambian generations. Because when they need to draw down that investment, it's on US taxpayers to fund it (by retiring that debt). 

If the SSTF had been invested in Swiss sovereign bonds or in an ETF based on the S&P 500 or even in US corporate debt, it would be good for the system and good for the American taxpayer, because "someone else" is now the one on the hook to pay back that debt when it gets drawn down. 

But when you put it in US T Bills, it's the US taxpayer that has to pay it back. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Retirement / What am I working for?
« Reply #192 on: May 08, 2024, 06:13:50 PM »
And I highlight again that this is why I hate the whole SSTF. If smart guys like you two don't really see the corrosive effect it has on honestly discussing the issue, what are the dumb-dumbs of the world going to do? 

Cincydawg

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Re: Retirement / What am I working for?
« Reply #193 on: May 08, 2024, 06:19:43 PM »
I only use somewhat different verbiage. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Retirement / What am I working for?
« Reply #194 on: May 08, 2024, 06:53:21 PM »
I only use somewhat different verbiage.
I dunno...

The link you provided that set me off on this kept highlighting the point at which the trust fund is depleted as if it's a meaningful date. That to me buys into the falsehood that the SSTF is actually meaningful. And it obscures the fact that right now, SS shortfalls are not being paid by drawing down some "trust fund" full of cash, they're being paid by deficit spending.

Tomorrow Congress could pass a bill extinguishing the SSTF, cancelling all of those T Bills, and committing to paying current benefits and... Nothing of import would change. The question is and always will be "will we continue to pay benefits at X level?", not "when does the SSTF run out of assets?"

Be even acknowledging the SSTF and treating it with import, we're obscuring the ultimate question, which is how we're going to pay for all these retireee benefits. 

Gigem

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Re: Retirement / What am I working for?
« Reply #195 on: May 08, 2024, 07:56:59 PM »
I think what brad is trying to say is that it’s like the words strongest person.  Lets just say this man weighed 350 lbs, but he can bench press and lift 500-600 lbs. 

No matter how hard he tries, he can’t lift himself up off the ground. He can lift way more than his weight, but it literally wouldn’t matter if he could lift 1,000,000 lbs. he cannot lift himself up, because he cannot exert a net force on himself. 

Same thing with SSTF. It all comes out of the same body, no matter what you call it. 

 

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