For now I'm going to ignore the 1-loss teams simply because there are too many of them to keep track of (7) but the four teams that remain unbeaten in conference games still create some interesting scenarios:
The four are:
- 2-0/5-0 #2 Ohio State
- 2-0/5-0 #3 Oregon
- 2-0/5-0 #4 Penn State
- 3-0/6-0 #18 Indiana
Ohio State is the highest ranked nationally and in all or nearly all the power rankings here but the Buckeyes have BY FAR the toughest remaining schedule. They have to play the other three with two of those (Ore, PSU) on the road.
While it would be mathematically possible for the Buckeyes to lose in both Eugene and Happy Valley and still make the B1GCG, as a practical matter it isn't possible. To make the B1GCG, the Buckeyes are going to have to steal a road win in a VERY difficult venue against a top-3 team.
For the Buckeyes:
- If they win in both Eugene AND Happy Valley, they'll make it even if they lose a game somewhere along the line.
- If they win in either Eugene OR Happy Valley, they'll make it so long as they win all of their other games.
- If they lose in both Eugene and Happy Valley, they are mathematically in the race but practically eliminated.
Oregon's season comes down to their game this weekend hosting the Buckeyes. If they win they would most likely make the B1GCG even with a loss somewhere down the road. With a loss they'll need help.
Aside from hosting the Buckeyes they Ducks have a couple of potentially tricky road games in Ann Arbor and Madison. Their other remaining games, however, are games they should win (@PU, vsIL, vsMD, vsUWash).
Penn State's situation is nearly identical to Oregon's. They host the Buckeyes in a game where a win likely locks them into the B1GCG and other than that they should probably win the rest (@USC, @UWisc, vsUWash, @PU, @MN, vsUMD).
Indiana has more of a chance than you might think. Their schedule is manageable. They have to play Ohio State in Columbus but even assuming that they lose in the Horseshoe, at this point it isn't out of the realm of possibility that they could end up 11-1. After Ohio State, their next three toughest games are at home (vs M, vs UNL, vs UWash).
Here is an interesting scenario:
- Ohio State beats Ore, PSU, and IU and either finishes with one loss or goes undefeated.
- Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana all go 11-1/8-1
Obviously Ohio State gets a spot in the B1GCG (either outright or based on the #1 tiebreaker of H2H where they would be 3-0 and the others would each be 0-1) but spot #2 is a three-way tie between three teams that all lost to tOSU. Tiebreakers:
- H2H - doesn't help because none of them play each other.
- Record against all common conference opponents - doesn't help because they would all be tied.
- Best win among common opponents (the B1G is a LOT more wordy than me but it comes down to best win among common opponents) - doesn't help because they'd all be tied.
- Cumulative conference winning percentage of all conference opponents - This one would probably be decisive. Just eyeballing it, it looks BAD for Indiana because the three B1G teams that they've beaten are a combined 0-7.
Scenario #2:
- Ohio State splits the Oregon and Penn State games and finishes 8-1/11-1
The B1GCG is most likely a rematch between Ohio State and whichever of Ore/PSU beat them.
Scenario #3:
- Ohio State loses to both Oregon and Penn State and finishes 7-2/10-2
- Indiana finishes 8-1/11-1
The Hoosiers could make it if one of Ore/PSU falters.
FWIW:
I don't mean to make this post all about Ohio State but the way the schedules work, the B1GCG race IS all about Ohio State because the Buckeyes play all of the top teams while the rest of them mostly don't play each other at all.
