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Topic: B1G divisional races after week 9

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medinabuckeye1

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B1G divisional races after week 9
« on: November 01, 2021, 05:32:02 PM »
Well this discussion got off to an early start between @ELA and I in the Power Rankings thread but here goes:

B1G-E:

  • 5-0 Michigan State:  Controls their own destiny. 
  • 5-0 Ohio State:  Controls their own destiny. 
  • 4-1 Michigan:  Needs either two MSU losses or a three-way tie at 8-1 with the two above and a REALLY strong finish by their B1G-W opponents (Note, this may not be mathematically possible, I'd have to check.  More on tiebreakers below)

The rest of the division is practically eliminated and at least most of them are mathematically eliminated.  UMD and PSU both have three losses so the best they could do is a tie with the MSU/tOSU winner and that would require the MSU/tOSU winner to otherwise lose out plus it would require the MSU/tOSU loser to win no more than one additional game and Michigan to win no more than two additional games and even then UMD/PSU would have to find a way to win the convoluted multi-team tiebreaker which is unlikely since both already lost to tOSU. 

B1G-W:
  • 4-1 Minnesota:  Controls their own destiny. 
  • 3-2 Wisconsin:  Controls their own destiny, the Axe could be for a trip to Indy. 
  • 3-2 Purdue:  Needs all kinds of help because they already lost to both of the teams ahead of them on this list. 
  • 3-2 Iowa:  Needs a loss each by PU and UW. 

The rest of the division is practically eliminated and probably mathematically eliminated because they have 4+ losses so they would need a slew of losses by the teams ahead of them and that really isn't possible because a lot of the remaining games for the teams ahead of them are against each other. 


Tiebreakers:
If anyone knows of anything newer, let me know but here are the tiebreakers from the B1G website.  In a two-team tie the only tiebreaker is H2H.  In a multi-team tie the following procedures are applied sequentially with the caveat that if only two teams are left after ANY step, those two revert to H2H:
  • H2H...2H. 
  • Divisional Record. 
  • Record against the next best team(s) in the division, then the next, then the next, etc. 
  • Record against all common conference opponents. 
  • Cumulative league record of non-divisional opponents (ie, whoever played the toughest cross-overs goes). 
  • Record against the best team(s) in the other division, then the next, then the next, etc. 
  • Overall record. 
  • Random Draw. 

In the event of a three-way tie at 8-1 (such as MSU, tOSU, and M this year if tOSU beats MSU, M beats tOSU, and all three otherwise win out) steps 1, 2, 3, 4, and 6 will all be tied so it will come down to either #5 record of non-divisional opponents, #7 overall record, or #8random draw. 

In the case of a 3-way tie at 8-1 between Ohio State and the two Michigan schools the first thing looked at would be the league records of their non-divisional opponents.  All three play Nebraska this year so that is irrelevant.  The other two B1G-W opponents for each team are:
Ohio State:
  • 4-1 Minnesota
  • 3-2 Purdue
  • 7-3 total
Michigan:
  • 3-2 Wisconsin
  • 1-4 Northwestern
  • 4-6 total
Michigan State:
  • 3-2 Purdue
  • 1-4 Northwestern
  • 4-6 total

Ohio State currently holds a three-game lead in this tiebreaker which is substantial but not enough to clinch mathematically. 
« Last Edit: November 01, 2021, 06:22:42 PM by medinabuckeye1 »

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G divisional races after week 9
« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2021, 05:38:35 PM »
Wouldn't Iowa also need another Purdue loss, since the Hawkeyes lost to Purdue and they currently have the same record of 3-2, according to your tabulations? 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

LittlePig

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Re: B1G divisional races after week 9
« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2021, 06:02:40 PM »
Wouldn't Iowa also need another Purdue loss, since the Hawkeyes lost to Purdue and they currently have the same record of 3-2, according to your tabulations?
Yes, Iowa actually needs a Purdue loss more than they need a Minn loss.  If Iowa wins out, they can give Minn a loss themselves, so all Iowa needs is a loss by both Wisc and Purdue.

Now if Purdue wins out, all they need is 2 losses by Minn and 1 loss by Wisc.

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G divisional races after week 9
« Reply #3 on: November 01, 2021, 06:22:19 PM »
Wouldn't Iowa also need another Purdue loss, since the Hawkeyes lost to Purdue and they currently have the same record of 3-2, according to your tabulations?
Yes, Iowa actually needs a Purdue loss more than they need a Minn loss.  If Iowa wins out, they can give Minn a loss themselves, so all Iowa needs is a loss by both Wisc and Purdue.

Now if Purdue wins out, all they need is 2 losses by Minn and 1 loss by Wisc.
Sorry, typo.  Yes, Iowa needs a loss each by UW and PU not MN because, as @LittlePig pointed out, Iowa can give MN a second loss.  I'll fix it.  

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G divisional races after week 9
« Reply #4 on: November 01, 2021, 07:44:02 PM »
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G divisional races after week 9
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2021, 04:16:53 PM »
How this weekend's games impact the Divisional races:

B1G-E:
Michigan State and Ohio State are both facing B1G-W opponents this weekend and both would still control their own B1GCG destiny even with a loss.  That isn't to say the games are not important.  The games are very important for CFP considerations and whatnot but either team could still get to the B1GCG without any help even with a loss this weekend.  

Michigan hosts Indiana and needs a win to stay plausibly in the race.  A loss wouldn't eliminate them mathematically but practically it would put them in a really tough spot.  

B1G-W:
Minnesota hosts Illinois and would control their own B1GCG destiny even with a loss.  The other contenders need to win to stay on the pace.  

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G divisional races after week 9
« Reply #6 on: November 07, 2021, 01:01:52 AM »
So 4 B1G West teams tied atop the division at 4-2? 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

LittlePig

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Re: B1G divisional races after week 9
« Reply #7 on: November 07, 2021, 10:50:51 AM »
So 4 B1G West teams tied atop the division at 4-2?
Wisc is in good shape, with wins over Purdue and Iowa.  Wisc still needs to play NW, Neb and @Minn.  Wisc just needs to win out to win the division.

Minn is still in good shape, with a win over Purdue.  Minn still needs to play @Iowa, @Ind, and Wisc.  Minn just needs to win out to win the division

Purdue needs some help. Purdue already has losses to Minn and Wisc, but has a win over Iowa.  Still needs to play @OSU, @NW and Ind.  Purdue needs to win out and then have the winner of the Minn/wisc game lose a different game.  Most likely they need Iowa to beat Minn, then have Minn beat Wisc.  Meanwhile Purdue needs to find a way to win @OSU after a big emotional win against MSU

Iowa needs some help.  Iowa has already lost to Purdue and Wisc.  Still needs to play Minn, ILL and @Neb.  Iowa needs to win out and have Purdue and Wisc both lose another game.  Most likely they need Wisc to lose to Minn,  and Purdue to lose to OSU.  So its not impossible.  The hardest part for Iowa may be going 3-0 against Minn, ILL and Neb.

LittlePig

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Re: B1G divisional races after week 9
« Reply #8 on: November 07, 2021, 11:07:51 AM »
Also thinking about what if West ends in 4 way tie at 6-3 with the following losses

Minn loses to Iowa
Purdue loses to OSU
Iowa loses to Neb
Wisc loses to Minn

I believe Minn would win the division in this scenario.  Iowa and Purdue drop out first with 1-2 records h2h against the other 3 teams.  That just leaves Minn and Wisc who were 2-1 h2h against the other 3 teams. 
So at that point,  Minn would win the division based on beating Wisc h2h.

Cincydawg

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Re: B1G divisional races after week 9
« Reply #9 on: November 07, 2021, 11:52:50 AM »
The SEC West is a similar mess, potentially, with Bama at 5-2 and 3 teams with 2 losses, though A&M has an edge over Bama and Auburn now.  Bama has Arky at home and Auburn on the road, and a loss puts A&M in the seat with the steering wheel if they beat Ole Miss and LSU.  A&M is showing a pretty decent defense.  Ole miss has Ls to Bama and Auburn, so they are almost eliminated.

 

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