Teams with 1st Loss Week 3:
Wake Forest
South Florida
Tennessee
South Carolina
Temple
Arkansas
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Washington State
Pittsburgh
Purdue
Appalachian State
New Mexico State
Air Force
Minnesota
Texas State
Percent of Teams with 1st loss of the Season:
Week 0/1: 36.0% (49 of 136)
Week 2: 36.8% (32 of 87)
Week 3: 29.1% (16 of 55)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
6: Our number is down 3 spots from last week as we lost Washington State and our last chance at an undefeated team in Conference USA and the Sun Belt. That leaves us the possibility of one undefeated in each of the Big Ten, SEC, ACC, Big 12, American, and Mountain West.
Updated Note: jimrtex on the other board I post this on did a good breakdown of how many undefeateds could finish unbeaten in each conference before championship week. It included up to 4 in the Big Ten, SEC, and Big 12 and three in the ACC. That is still more than I want to keep track of though for purposes here (too many schedules and teams to look at with limited time), so I am continuing with the assumption that there are no more than 1 undefeated team per conference for now (feel free to post updates though anyone else below if want to). I'll change that soon when our undefeated list shrinks a bit more.
Week 3 Thoughts:
-I feel like the SEC has helped itself a lot with an extra playoff bid the past two weeks despite a set back or two. Notre Dame is a borderline playoff contender now so if it comes down to the Irish or Texas A&M (or a team that beats Texas A&M), the SEC is getting a leg up. Oklahoma's win over Michigan had a similar effect, as both teams are probably more along the lines of borderline playoff team so head to head might well count more. Beyond that, Georgia won a close one at Tennessee and that might make them the one to beat in the SEC and let's shoutout to a now ranked Vanderbilt who just beat South Carolina.
-USC and Oregon won the first conference games of the year in the Big Ten for a good representation of the west coast additions. On the flip side, UCLA fired their head coach after a 25 point loss to New Mexico which starts them 0-3. They are probably the most likely team in the country to finish winless right now.
-In the ACC, Georgia Tech won a close game over Clemson which could have significance for who plays in the ACC Championship (they are the 2nd favorite to win the conference now). Miami won a ranked game vs. South Florida (more on that below). Both California additions did win games this week with Cal going to 3-0 after beating Minnesota and Stanford winning a conference game vs. Boston College.
-Utah and Texas Tech won easily setting up a game between the two most likely Big 12 conference champs by betting odds next week. West Virginia won the Backyard Brawl in a close one. To the disappointment of the TV executives and probably the conference headquarters, Colorado is 1-2 after a loss to now 3-0 Houston.
-Notre Dame finds itself in trouble starting 0-2. Their losses were both close and both to good teams, but they will be unlikely to make the playoff with 3 losses and 2 losses might not cut it in some circumstances. They need to win out for sure now to make it.
-South Florida lost fairly largely to Miami (FL), but the American is arguably in a slightly stronger spot for the playoff bid than it was going into the week. There are now no undefeated teams in the Sun Belt, Conference USA, or MAC. Given how the committee has looked at strength of schedule from my view, most teams in those three conferences now likely need either a major out of conference win to be competing or a 2-loss American champ at least (this is without looking at individual schedules though). The Mountain West does still have a single undefeated team in UNLV while the American has 4 for the moment. It should be noted, despite the much deserved praise to South Florida, Tulane has actually been the favorite in the conference even before this last week. For me, it is the American's to lose right now unless UNLV finishes unbeaten and then you do probably need an undefeated American champ still.
-Washington State lost badly to North Texas. The 2 team PAC-12 era has been less promising than I am sure WSU or OSU hoped.
Week 4 Thoughts:
-There are 5 games between undefeated teams this week.
Undefeated Texas Tech at Undefeated Utah: The two most likely to win the Big 12 facing off. Winner will be the one to beat in the conference. Loser likely cannot afford another loss and make the playoff outside of if also wins the conference.
Undefeated Auburn at Undefeated Oklahoma: Can Oklahoma follow up the big Michigan win? This would also be a good win for Auburn who has been down a bit last few years and is ranked. Oklahoma winning could set-up a fairly big Red River Shootout in a couple weeks.
Undefeated Tulane at Undefeated Ole Miss: Tulane is the favorite in the American. Ole Miss already has two SEC wins.
Undefeated Illinois at Undefeated Indiana: This is a game people wouldn't believe would be between two ranked teams not very long ago. Illinois would like to do what Indiana did last year and Indiana would like to prove it wasn't a fluke.
Undefeated Michigan State at Undefeated USC: USC is a very large favorite.
1-loss Iowa at Undefeated Rutgers (Friday): Mention mostly because this is a Friday game, but line is close. The Big 12 would like Iowa to do something in the Big Ten after losing to Iowa State. Rutgers would love to start the year 4-0.
1-loss Arkansas at Undefeated Memphis: Would be another good win for the American if Memphis can pull the upset. Arkansas had a good game in defeat to Ole Miss last week.
1-loss SMU at Undefeated TCU: Last year, the ACC got two bids to the Big 12's one. Games like this an effect that.
Undefeated UNLV at Miami (OH): UNLV is the last undefeated in the Mountain West and has the 2nd best odds to win the conference, but are only a 2.5 point road favorite. Mountain West really wants them to win here.
1-loss Michigan at undefeated Nebraska: Michigan is a small road favorite here. If they lose, they are out of the ranking and on life support for the playoff race.
Florida at Undefeated Miami (FL): Miami's resurgence is great for the ACC's chances at two and at a higher ranked bid. If they lose to a Florida team that lost its last two though, much of that is going to be negated. They are a bit over a touchdown favorite.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 6, American: 4, Big 12: 8, Big Ten: 11, Conference USA: 0, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 0, SEC: 9, Sun Belt: 0, total: 39
Florida State
Maryland
North Carolina State
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
Iowa State
Missouri
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Louisville
Rutgers
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan State
Ohio State
Penn State
Memphis
Central Florida
Houston
Tulane
Brigham Young
Texas Christian
UNLV
Utah
Arizona
California
Oregon
Southern California
Washington
Georgia
Vanderbilt
Auburn
Louisiana State
Mississippi State
Mississippi
North Texas
Navy
