Teams with 1st Loss Week 2:
James Madison
Northern Illinois
Florida International
Louisiana Tech
Oklahoma State
Troy
Duke
Arizona State
Florida
Iowa
Michigan
Southern Methodist
Utah State
Kentucky
Louisiana-Monroe
Kent State
Virginia
Central Michigan
Connecticut
Liberty
Kansas
Bowling Green
(Delaware)
UAB
West Virginia
Arkansas State
Rice
Western Kentucky
South Alabama
Boston College
Tulsa
San Diego State
Percent of Teams with 1st loss of the Season:
Week 0/1: 36.0% (49 of 136)
Week 2: 36.8% (32 of 87)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
9*: Our number is down 2 spots from last week as we lost UConn and our last chance at an undefeated MAC champ. That leaves us the possibility of one undefeated in each of the 9 FBS except the MAC and Washington State.
Note: As I am not sorting through all the schedules, I am continuing with the assumption that there are no more than 1 undefeated team per conference. There are many (fairly unlikely) scenarios where we could have three undefeated teams in a conference before conference championship games so technically this number is low. For simplicity, I am going to ignore that possibility for at least the first few weeks and maybe longer.
Week 2 Thoughts:
-South Florida's win over Florida cements itself as the early front runner for the Group of 5 playoff spot. This race is far from over, but the American is definitely in the best shape. There are still 6 undefeated team in the American, which is as many as the other Group of 5 conferences combined.
-Looking more at the Group of 5 race, the MAC no longer has any undefeated teams. Ohio did come up with a good win against West Virginia so the conference definitely had its moment this week, but realistically, it is a very uphill battle for the playoff spot without an undefeated team unless something huge happens like Ohio following that with a win over Ohio State.
-The ACC has to be happy with how the Florida pair is doing, but there was struggle in the next tier of ranked teams this week. Clemson struggled against Troy, but at least did come through in the end. If they keep winning from here, that will be forgotten, but was an ominous sign. Meanwhile SMU does not have last years magic right now and dropped a non-conference game against Baylor.
-Iowa State won a big game vs. Iowa. This is rivalry that feels partially like a flipped script to me. It used to be Iowa was competing for the top of the Big Ten more often while that game was a bigger deal for Iowa State. Now with all the moves between both conferences and just natural changes in programs, Iowa State is competing more in the Big 12 while Iowa will be happier with a little different goals. None-the-less, the Big 12 needs their programs to win games like this if it wants multiple bids and Iowa State might be one. On the negative side of that, defending champs Arizona State, who were the highest ranked in the conference lost a close one to Mississippi State.
-Mixed results for the Big Ten this week. The showcase game of Oklahoma vs. Michigan ended in defeat. Michigan ended last year strong with wins over Ohio State and Alabama, but looked weaker most the rest. Will be interesting see how they look from here. Illinois and Oregon both had impressive wins. Illinois was only a small favorite despite their ranking, but won big vs. Duke and Oregon had one of the most impressive wins I have ever seen vs. a power 4 opponent and beat Oklahoma State up 69-3 (without scoring in the 4th quarter).
-Oklahoma beating Michigan was huge and Mizzou winning the resumption of the Border War were both great for the conference. On the flip side, Florida loses its ranking after being beaten by instate South Florida.
Week 3 Thoughts:
-By my quick count, we have 10 games between undefeated FBS teams this week.
1-loss Clemson at Undefeated Georgia Tech: Clemson is still ranked decently, but is only a 4.5 point favorite here. Should they lose, Georgia Tech is already getting votes for the top 25 and will probably enter it.
Undefeated Wisconsin at 1-loss Alabama: Alabama a massive favorite, but I will be interested to see how they perform after their last loss.
Undefeated Georgia at Undefeated Tennessee: Two playoff teams from last year and two toward the top of the conference. Georgia a touchdown favorite.
Undefeated Pitt at West Virginia: The backyard brawl. Pitt a very slight favorite. West Virginia looking to rebound from loss to Ohio.
Undefeated South Florida at Undefeated Miami (FL): South Florida has beat Boise State and Florida to enter undefeated. Can they pull off the trifecta? A stunner would be incredibly bad for the ACC who wants Miami ranked long and high (and if does lose, at least help another ACC school in the process).
Undefeated Arkansas at Undefeated Ole Miss: Ole Miss is ranked a bit less than a 10 point favorite. Lose this game and the ranking might switch.
Undefeated Appalachian State at 1-loss Southern Miss: Appalachian State is one of the last two undefeated in the Sun Belt, but a slight underdog here.
1-loss Florida at undefeated LSU: Florida deeply wants to get the taste of last game out of their mouth and are less than a touchdown underdog on the road.
Undefeated Texas A&M at 1-loss Notre Dame: The Irish are a 6.5 point home favorite. A loss would put their playoff hopes on life support.
Undefeated Vanderbilt at Undefeated South Carolina: South Carolina is ranked 11, but only a 5.5 point favorite against a Vanderbilt team that has felt different the last two years.
1-loss Duke at undefeated Tulane: The American would love a win like this to keep more undefeated teams and further increase their chances at the playoff. Tulane is a small favorite.
Undefeated Air Force at 1-loss Utah State: Air Force is one of the three remaining undefeated teams in the Mountain West and a small favorite.
Undefeated Minnesota at Undefeated Cal: Big Ten vs. ACC game with a close spread.
Undefeated New Mexico State at 1-loss Louisiana Tech: New Mexico State is the last undefeated in Conference USA. The conference will have a very uphill battle getting a team with a loss in the playoff unless they pull off a stunner. Louisiana Tech is a significant favorite though.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 8, American: 6, Big 12: 8, Big Ten: 14, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 0, Mountain West: 3, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 12, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 0, total: 55
Florida State
Maryland
North Carolina State
Wake Forest
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
Iowa State
Missouri
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Louisville
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
South Florida
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan State
Minnesota
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue
Wisconsin
Memphis
Central Florida
Houston
Tulane
Air Force
Brigham Young
Texas Christian
UNLV
Utah
Wyoming
Arizona
California
Oregon
Southern California
Washington
Washington State
Georgia
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Arkansas
Auburn
Louisiana State
Mississippi State
Mississippi
North Texas
New Mexico State
Navy
Temple
Texas State
Appalachian State
