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Topic: Remaining Undefeated Teams after Week 2

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ohio1317

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Remaining Undefeated Teams after Week 2
« on: September 10, 2019, 12:00:08 AM »
Teams with 1st loss Week 2:
Marshall
Texas A&M
Cincinnati
Texas
Army
Tulane
Northern Illinois
Washington
Buffalo
Nevada
Central Michigan
Western Michigan
Rutgers
Syracuse
Stanford
Nebraska
Ohio U.
Old Dominion
West Virginia
Bowling Green
Charlotte
Connecticut
Southern Mississippi
UTSA
Louisiana-Monroe
North Texas
Kansas
Eastern Michigan
Arkansas
UTEP
San Jose State
UNLV

Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
10: All conference champs plus Notre Dame. That's two fewer than last week thanks to independent Army losing and plus every MAC team now having a loss.

Teams with 1st loss:
Week 0 and 1: 35.38% (46 of 130)
Week 2: 38.01% (32 of 84)

Week 2 Thoughts:
-We lost a higher percent of teams this week than week 1. Without looking at all my old years this does seem to happen sometimes because of all the FCS games in the first week (although think most years is still not true). Over next few weeks, I would expect the percent of unbeatens losing each week to slowly but steadily fall. After that, our sample size gets small enough you can start to get more variation.
-Clemson winning vs. Texas A&M this week was probably the single biggest move on the national level. The Tigers do not have currently have another ranked team on the schedule. While that will almost certainly change at some point, the odds, even at this point, of Clemson being in the playoff bowls looks incredibly high.
-In more positive news for the SEC, LSU winning over Texas, gives the conference three top 5ish teams. Even this early, it's always good to watch the conference because the ability to take 2 CFP spots is out there.
-The PAC-12 race is interesting to start. Washington, Stanford, and Oregon, the teams who have been top of the north and most the stronger ones of the last few years all already have losses. They can still get to the CFP with a loss, but it wouldn't be guaranteed. A resurgent USC (far from certain to come, but beat Stanford pretty good this week) might be the conferences best hope. Washington State has also risen to the point of being ranked.
-For the Group of 5 conferences NY6 bowl bid, I think the MAC pretty much eliminated itself from competition this week. Given the way the committee has seemed to act to me over last few years, they put much higher premium on competition in the American and Mountain West than the other 3. Getting in I think from the MAC, Conference USA, or the Sun Belt has seemed to take either an undefeated season and/or a major out of conference victory. The MAC may still get the latter, but the best path there was always going to be with an undefeated team. Looking at Conference USA and the Sun Belt, we have a total of 4 other teams in the mix. Conference USA is down to just one in UAB. If Marshall had managed to beat Boise State in a close game Friday, the conference would have a lot easier time.

Week 3 Thoughts:
-If I counted right, we have 10 games between undefeated FBS teams this week. Most interesting games to me are probably:
Stanford @ UCF: Central Florida has to be one of the top candidates for NY6 bowl game again this year. This week vs. Stanford and next week @Pitt are their big chances to show off out of conference. Win them convincing and they will be top candidate again no question.
Clemson @ Syracuse: Clemson is a huge favorite here, but they have struggled some vs. the Orange last few years. Also if Syracuse were to win, would effectively give them 2 game lead over Clemson with likely tie-breakers. Again not likely to happen, but been just close enough last few years to pay attention.

 Remaining Undefeated Teams:
ACC: 6, American Athletic: 5, Big 12: 7, Big Ten: 10, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 0, Mountain West: 6, PAC-12: 6, SEC: 7, Sun Belt: 3, independents: 1, total: 52
Boston College
Clemson
Maryland
North Carolina State
Wake Forest
North Carolina
Virginia
Colorado
Iowa State
Kansas State
Baylor
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Ohio State
Penn State
Wisconsin
UAB
Memphis
Central Florida
Southern Methodist
Air Force
New Mexico
San Diego State
Texas Christian
Utah
Wyoming
Arizona State
California
Southern California
Washington State
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Alabama
Auburn
Louisiana State
Mississippi State
Troy
Boise State
Hawaii
Navy
Notre Dame
Temple
Georgia State
Appalachian State

LittlePig

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Re: Remaining Undefeated Teams after Week 2
« Reply #1 on: September 10, 2019, 07:06:31 AM »
Thanks for doing this every year.  I really enjoy your posts. 

Just one typo;  max number of undefeateds at end of season should say Notre Dame + All conference champs except for the MAC.

Hmm, the way I remember it is that consistently thirty some percent of undefeateds lose each week, at least for the first half of the season.  It's a pattern that really sticks out.  Occasionally. getting as high as 40 some percent or as low as 20 some percent, but for the most part, 30 some percent, amazingly consistent.  

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Remaining Undefeated Teams after Week 2
« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2019, 08:52:40 AM »
Winless 
AAC: USF
ACC: Miami
Big Ten: Northwestern
CUSA: FAU, FIU, Rice
Ind: UMass, N Mexico St, Liberty
MAC: Akron, Toledo
MWC: Fresno
Pac 12: UCLA, OSU3
SEC: Tennessee, Vandy
SunBelt: Texas St
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17

Geolion91

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Re: Remaining Undefeated Teams after Week 2
« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2019, 01:02:51 PM »
That Tennessee - Vandy game should be interesting this year.

 

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