Teams with 1st Loss Week 4:
Nebraska
Syracuse
San Jose State
Louisiana-Monroe
Oklahoma
Southern California
Oklahoma State
Kansas State
Northern Illinois
North Carolina
Louisiana-Lafayette
Coastal Carolina
Arizona State
Memphis
California
Toledo
Michigan State
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 28.4% (38 of 134)
Week 2: 37.5% (36 of 96)
Week 3: 28.3% (17 of 60)
Week 4: 39.5% (17 of 43)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 9
-I am still assuming no more than one undefeated per conference for at least 1 more week. I might figure out exactly next week.
-We lost the potential for one undefeated with the loss of our last couple of MAC teams. We now can have champions from all the conferences except the MAC plus Washington State (8+1).
Week 4 Thoughts:
-I added the winless team list this week. I will add the 1-loss team list within the next two weeks (ideally next week). We start the winless list with 7 teams.
-We had a very high percent of first time losses for this week of the year. I didn't go back and compare, but it looks out of whack to me which is interesting.
-Kind of an aside, but thinking on the importance of games this week, something occurred to me. While there is more margin for error in the national title race than ever, the margin for error in the conference races has changed and mostly decreased. With larger conferences and no divisions (save the Sun Belt), the races look very different. Thinking about the races this year:
1. On the one hand, we have gotten rid of the issue of having the two overwhelmingly best teams in the same division and that game between them determining who goes to the championship and usually who wins it.
2. On the flip side, schedules are very uneven. Everyone misses a lot of other opponents and the sheer number of teams you are competing against has gotten really high.
3. Because of this size and unevenness, there is very limited margin for error and to make the championship. Most teams in these major conference games will probably have 0 or 1 conference loss. Most teams with 2 conference losses who make it over the years will probably mostly be in with tie breakers and many of the 1 loss teams probably will be too.
4. You can finish in 9th or 10th place in the Big Ten and be middle of the pack. In the past, this would have been at the very bottom.
-In an already different year for the Big Ten, we have had Illinois, Indiana, and Rutgers look decent so far. I will be interested to see how they play further into conference play. Toward the top of the Big Ten, the old Big Ten beat the new Big Ten with Michigan beating USC, but if Michigan does not find a way for more passing yards they will likely be in trouble.
-North Carolina is always a program I think should be better than they are. James Madison was great in the win (more on them in a minute), but the Tar Heels still don't live up to the potential their powerful athletic department gives them.
-It's been a good start for the newer part of the Big 12. Utah and UCF have the top odds to win the conference and BYU is now ranked. Colorado had an unbelievable win over Baylor.
-Oklahoma's start in the SEC was rocky, but it feels like maybe we can say Tennessee is fully back after a long absence atop the top SEC teams.
-We are down to just 5 undefeated teams in the Group of 5 conferences. My guess is we get a 1-loss team as our playoff team. North Illinois losing to Buffalo put a serious dent in the MAC's chances of having a representative. I think they need a decent bit of chaos to get in now even if Notre Dame looks good the rest of the way. Liberty beating East Carolina gives Conference USA more hope, but I think they need to go unbeaten to have a half decent shot of getting in. James Madison's win was a nice boost for the Sun Belt.
Week 5 Thoughts:
-We have 2 games between undefeated teams this week.
Undefeated Georgia at Undefeated Alabama: Have we had a changing of the guard in the SEC? For so long Alabama seemed like the team to beat in the SEC. Even with Georgia rising and occasionally others, Saban's Crimson Tide always seemed like the one to beat. It doesn't feel that way right now with Saban gone, Georgia again starting as favorite, and Texas in the mix, but I could see this all of this change in expectations being too quick and the old Alabama narrative quickly coming back after a win here.
Undefeated Illinois at Undefeated Penn State: Illinois is a 19 point underdog in this game, but has been playing very well to start the year including a road win over Nebraska last week. Penn State is fighting to be thought of as a national title team. This game means a lot to both programs.
Undefeated Louisville at 1-loss Notre Dame: Both teams want in the playoff. The Irish margin for error is now fairly small after the Northern Illinois loss. A win over Notre Dame meanwhile would help prop up numbers to help the ACC possibility get two teams in the playoff.
1-loss Colorado at undefeated UCF: UCF is the 2nd favorite to win the Big 12 and a huge favorite in this game, but Colorado has been interesting.
Undefeated Washington State at 1-loss Boise State: This game could be significant for several reasons. Boise State is favorite to win the Mountain West and with their lone loss to Oregon is very much a strong contender for the Group of 5 auto spot. A second loss though would leave no margin for error and require some help. On the other side, Washington State would be 5-0 with a win and have three of their toughest games behind them. If they win this, they are a dark horse playoff contender given their remaining schedule.
-Oklahoma State at Kansas State (both 1-loss): A ranked game between the old Big 8 guard in the Big 12. They have both lost one, but are still playing for everything. A second loss will be a lot more to overcome.
Washington at Undefeated Rutgers (Friday): East coast vs. West coast in a Big Ten game. Rutgers has started well and can move to 4-0 if they win this game they are small favorites in.
Undefeated BYU at Baylor: BYU continues to do well in the early season, but are small underdogs here.
Undefeated Navy at UAB: Navy and Army are the last American undefeated teams. They are a 3.5 point favorite here.
Undefeated Liberty at Appalachian State: An undefeated Liberty is definitely Conference USA's best chance at a spot in the playoff, but they are only a 3.5 point favorite this week.
Fresno State at undefeated UNLV: The Rebels have looked good this year, but had a lot drama this week. Can they keep their spot competing for the playoff?
North Carolina at undefeated Duke: This huge basketball rivalry has Duke favored slightly.
Winless New Mexico at New Mexico State: New Mexico is favored to get their 1st win of the year against their instate rival.
Air Force at winless Wyoming: Wyoming is a small favorite looking for their first win.
UMass at winless Miami (OH): The Redskins are huge favorites to get their first win.
UT Martin at winless Kennesaw State: Transitioning into FBS Kennesaw State is still looking for a win and playing an FCS opponent this week.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 4, American: 2, Big 12: 4, Big Ten: 6, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 0, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 6, Sun Belt: 1, total: 26
Duke
Miami (FL)
Iowa State
Missouri
Texas
Louisville
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
Illinois
Indiana
Ohio State
Penn State
Central Florida
Brigham Young
UNLV
Utah
Oregon
Washington State
Georgia
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Army
Navy
Liberty
James Madison
