Teams with 1st Loss Week 13:
UTSA
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 13:
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
2: Georgia, Cincinnati
-We lost our last Conference USA undefeated team with UTSA's loss.
Teams with 1st loss:
Week 0 and 1: 41.53% (54 of 130)
Week 2: 34.21% (26 of 76)
Week 3: 32% (16 of 50)
Week 4: 23.53% (8 of 34)
Week 5: 34.62% (9 of 26)
Week 6: 23.53% (4 of 17)
Week 7: 15.38% (2 of 13)
Week 8: 18.18% (2 of 11)
Week 9: 33.33% (3 of 9)
Week 10: 33.33% (2 of 6)
Week 11: 25% (1 of 4)
Week 12: 0% (0 of 3)
Week 13: 33.33% (1 of 3)
Week 13 Thoughts:
-What a week. Let's start with our surprise loss of an undefeated with UTSA losing to North Texas. That was the final Conference USA undefeated. Going into championship week, there are only 3 realistic teams competing for the Group of 5 automatic NY6 bowl. Cincinnati has it if they win (and more likely than not, much more). If Houston beats the bearcats, it will come down to Houston or San Diego State. San Diego State is ahead in the rankings right now and the Utah win will pay dividends if the Utes win the PAC-12. On the flip side, Houston will have definitely beat the higher ranked opponent in their championship game. I could see this going either way if both win.
-The biggest news of the week was obviously The Game and Bedlam. Michigan snapped a long drought and the Buckeyes could not stop the Wolverines move all day. Winning now was a very big deal for Michigan. I can tell you personally, I've talked to many very big Michigan fans (I have a decent bit of family who roots for the school from the state up north) and they were all about fed up with Harbaugh. His coaching pedigree is hard to beat, but at the same time, the lack of success against rivals was making things very difficult. This changes that perception which helps them in a lot of ways. They should be #2 or #3 this week and will almost certainly end up #2 if they win the Big Ten Championship. The Buckeyes best bet (outside of an extreme long shot at the #4 spot), is now if Michigan wins the Big Ten so that Ohio State can go to the Rose Bowl.
-In the Big 12, Oklahoma State won what might or might not be one of the final Bedlams (I'm guessing not). With Baylor also winning, the Sooners, lose the tie-breaker and the Big 12 Championship is set as Baylor vs. Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are very much in the CFP race and I expect them to jump Notre Dame this week or, at the latest, next week with a win. I would also lean to them jumping Cincinnati, but am less certain on that.
-Alabama held on. I think they would have still made the CFP if they had beat Georgia next week even with 2 losses, but it might have been close. As things stand, the close win still hurts Bama some as it is part of a pattern. That won't matter if the Tide win this week (they'd likely be #1 overall), but it likely will if they lose. This is not the Alabama that feels like you have to give the benefit of the doubt to like past teams. I don't think a 11-2 Alabama would stay above an 11-1 Notre Dame, a 12-1 Oklahoma State, or a 13-0 Cincinnati.
-Oklahoma, Clemson, and Ohio State are most likely all out of the CFP race. Alabama will likely be if they lose. This could be a CFP field with only Georgia as a returning team (and they have only been once).
-Here is how I see the CFP pecking order going into the final week of the year:
Georgia: Don't lose by 50 and they are in. They might even be then. If #1, they'll likely be in the Orange Bowl.
Alabama: Win and they are in as #1 most likely. Lose and they stand a chance at #4, but I think they need some upsets below and they can't lose badly.
Michigan: Win the Big Ten and they are likely #2 overall.
Oklahoma State: I think the Cowboys jump Notre Dame this week and a Baylor win would be enough to jump Cincinnati. I am very uncertain on that, but I would lean to it. The committee has given a lot of respect to 12-1 power 5 conference champs most years. That said, if they don't jump Cincinnati, they need one of Alabama, Cincinnati, or Michigan to lose..
Cincinnati: Similar to Oklahoma State. They might or might not stay above the Cowboys. To be comfortable, they need one of Oklahoma State, Michigan, or Alabama to lose this week in addition to winning.
Notre Dame: I think they get jumped by Oklahoma State this week. If they don't this week, they almost certainly will next. There are 5 teams ahead of them as I see it. I think they need 2 of them knocked out. Basically they need 2 of these 4 things to happen: Alabama lose to Georgia (preferably badly), Michigan to lose to Iowa, Cincinnati to lose to Houston, and/or Oklahoma State lose to Baylor.
Oregon/Baylor/Iowa: These three need 3 spots above them opening up and also need to beat the other 2 here. Notre Dame needed 2 of 4 things to happen, these three need 3 of those 4 to happen and then need to win convincingly in their championship game. Baylor and Iowa stand a better chance with Oregon losing. In all three cases, we are talking about a fairly big long shot.
Ohio State: I could come up with one scenario I think Ohio State could slide to #4, but it is probably in the range of a 1% chance as there couldn't be one thing that didn't go right and then would still need help from the committee. They need Michigan to win, Georgia to kill Alabama, Cincinnati to lose to Houston, Baylor to win a sloppy game with Oklahoma State, and Oregon to lose to Utah.
Week 14 Thoughts:
SEC Championship: Undefeated Georgia vs. 1-loss Alabama: Alabama winning gives us two SEC teams in the CFP. If you don't want that, root for Georgia (ideally not in a close game).
Big Ten Championship: 1-loss Michigan vs. Iowa: Michigan is playing here for the first time. They are in the CFP with a win. Iowa likely gets the Rose Bowl with a win. Lose and they likely fall out of a NY6 bowl.
Big 12 Championship: 1-loss Oklahoma State vs. Baylor: Earlier in the year, Baylor won this game. Not having Oklahoma or Texas here is probably something the conference is ecstatic about. The Cowboys stand a very decent chance at the CFP with a win and are favorites. Baylor needs to at least keep this close for a NY6 most likely.
American Championship: 1-loss Houston @ undefeated Cincinnati: Cincinnati is likely the first Group of 5 conference team in the CFP with a win (might need a little help). Houston stands a decent chance at a NY6 bowl if they win.
PAC-12 Championship: Utah vs. Oregon: Utah killed Oregon a few weeks ago, but are not that big of favorite here now. Winner of this game is most likely going to the Rose Bowl with the loser not in a NY6 bowl. There is a small chance Oregon could jump into CFP if you see a ton of chaos.
ACC Championship Game: Wake Forest vs. Pitt: No Clemson in this game for first time in awhile. Winner of this game is ACC Champion and going to a NY6 bowl (not Orange Bowl this year). This is a very big deal for both programs.
Mountain West Championship Game: Utah State @ 1-loss San Diego State: The Aztecs stand a chance at the NY6 auto spot if Cincinnati loses a close one to Houston.
MAC Championship: Kent State vs. Northern Illinois: This game is for pride. The winner is MAC Champ. Kent State beat Miami (OH) last week to secure this spot.
Sun Belt Championship: Appalachian State @ 1-loss Louisiana-Lafayette: The top of the conference has definitely risen up. These could well be teams competing for the auto bid soon.
Conference USA Championship Game: Western Kentucky @ 1-loss UTSA: UTSA surprisingly lost their first game last week. Western Kentucky is a small favorite here.
USC @ Cal: This is a make up game. This will be our last game of the regular season save Army vs. Navy next week.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: American: 1, Conference USA: 0, SEC: 1, total: 2
Cincinnati
Georgia
1-Loss Teams: American: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 8
Houston
Louisiana-Lafayette
Notre Dame
Alabama
Oklahoma State
San Diego State
Michigan
UTSA
