Teams with 1st Loss Week 11:
none
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 11:
Mississippi
Fresno State
Penn State
Air Force
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 37.6% (50 of 133)
Week 2: 38.6% (32 of 83)
Week 3: 23.5% (12 of 51)
Week 4: 30.8% (12 of 39)
Week 5: 18.5% (5 of 27)
Week 6: 36.4% (8 of 22)
Week 7: 21.4% (3 of 14)
Week 8: 18.2% (2 of 11)
Week 9: 11.1% (1 of 9)
Week 10: 12.5% (1 of 8)
Week 11: 0% (0 of 7)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
6: Ohio State/Michigan, Florida State, Georgia, Washington, Liberty, and James Madison
No changes this week.
Week 11 Thoughts:
-This was the first week we didn't lose any undefeated teams. We lost three 1-loss teams though so now have more undefeated than one loss teams.
-In the SEC, Alabama and Georgia are now locked into the championship. At the beginning of the season, it looked like they would have more than one collective loss the way they were playing, but both won out aside from Alabama's loss to Texas. In other years, they would be positioned well to both make it if Alabama wins the championship. They could still this year, but will definitely need help. Alabama needs a tad more help themselves even winning out (more on that below).
-Michigan beat Penn State in Happy Valley while Ohio State won. This means the Ohio State-Michigan game will determine the Big Ten east and likely be our final game between undefeated teams in the regular season. There is still a chance Ohio State and Michigan both make the playoff bowls, but the loser will need help from other teams. In the Big Ten west, Iowa won, while Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Minnesota all lost. This gives Iowa a two game lead with only 2 week left and makes the west fairly clear (for once). If Iowa wins one more (they have Illinois and Nebraska), they are in. If they lose both, one of the have current 3-4 conference teams could take it if they win tie breakers (in that situation, Iowa would have losses to three of the current ones).
-In the Big 12, Oklahoma State got blown out by UCF. Texas won the to stay atop the standings, but in 2nd we have a four way tie between Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, and Kansas State. Most likely one of those four will be in the Big 12 Championship. Texas, for their part, remains very much alive for the playoff bowls, but cannot afford a loss.
-Washington beat USC to remain unbeaten. They are one win away from locking up their spot in the championship. Oregon remains in 2nd by themselves and is the only other team with likely CFP bowl chances. That said, two loss Oregon State plays both Oregon and Washington to end the year and 2 conference loss Arizona is still hanging around. Oregon vs. Washington is the most likely end result, but it is not locked in yet. Oregon State, for their part, is an Arizona loss away from full control of their destiny (with an admittedly very tough road).
-In the ACC, Florida State finished their ACC schedule a perfect 8-0. Louisville won a close game vs. Virginia to stay as a 1-loss team. Win next week and they are going to the ACC Championship game (possibly going if lose too, but need some help then). Florida State is a shoe in for the CFP if they win out. A 1-loss Florida State or Louisville ACC Champion will probably need some upsets to go their way to get in.
-We still likely have 5 teams who control their CFP destiny in Ohio State/Michigan, Georgia, Florida State, and Washington. Alabama will probably join that list if Texas, Florida State, Washington or the Ohio State/Michigan winner loses, but right now there could still be 4 teams who would beat the Crimson Tide out if they won out.
NY6 Spot
-The Mountain West lost both their 1-loss teams this week with both Air Force and Fresno State losing. The conference still is in the New Year 6 race, but needs a lot of help now. I personally think their strongest contender now is probably 2-loss UNLV (losses to Michigan and Fresno State).
-Tulane won their third game in a row by 2. They likely remain in control of their NY6 destiny despite games being closer, but a loss would complicate matters. In conference, 2-loss SMU (with losses to Oklahoma and TCU) is also a very strong contender for the NY6 spot. UTSA could knock Tulane out of the conference title game if they win out, but would need more help for the NY6 spot.
-Liberty was helped by the Mountain West losses this week, but still needs more help and needs to look very impressive the rest of the way to get the spot even undefeated. That said, they keep winning and watching others lose so they are not out of this.
-The Sun Belt is fighting for an exemption for James Madison. In the off chance they win it, James Madison would very much be competing for the New Years Six, but that seems a fairly big long shot. Without James Madison, Troy is the conference's best shot (losses to James Madison and Kansas State). They need to hope for chaos in the American and for Air Force to win the Mountain West (Troy beat Army who blew out Air Force).
-Toledo winning keeps the MAC small hopes alive. They need chaos.
-All in all, my guess is that both Tulane and SMU control their destiny, but neither can afford a loss. After that, it comes down to who we are comparing.
Week 12 Thoughts:
Undefeated Washington at Oregon State: Washington controls their CFP destiny, but Oregon State is still alive for the PAC-12 title, in the AP top 10, and half a point favorite in this game. This could still be a very special year for the beavers.
1-loss Louisville at Miami (FL): Louisville is in the ACC Championship game with a win, but are only a point and a half road favorites. Miami is coming off a close rivalry loss to Florida State.
Undefeated Georgia at Tennessee: Georgia is the SEC Championship regardless and probably could afford a loss here (as long as close), but best for the SEC for the bulldogs to keep winning. Losing would probably eliminate any chance at two SEC teams in.
1-loss Tulane at Florida Atlantic: Tulane is a little less than 10 point favorites. They have slipped a bit past few weeks, but, if keep winning, the NY6 is theirs for the taking.
1-loss Texas at Iowa State: Texas is an 8 point road favorite and the last Big 12 team going for the CFP bowls. If you are Alabama or any other possible 1-loss team looking for the playoff bowls, root against the longhorns. Iowa State, for their part, is still looking to make the Big 12 title and winning this would keep them in position (and put Texas with them in a tie for 1st).
UMass at undefeated Liberty: Liberty is a huge favorite and best if they show it here for their NY6 hopes.
Utah at Arizona: Arizona is a 2-loss team, but still in the PAC-12 race and a half point favorite here. Should they win, they are big Oregon State fans the rest of the year.
SMU at Memphis: Both are in the American race with a win (Memphis would need a little help). SMU is very much in NY6 race if they keep winning (in my opinion, will likely take if win out). If you are Liberty or the Mountain West, root for Memphis.
Illinois at Iowa: Iowa wins the west if they take this game. If Illinois wins, the division remains open (including to the Illini).
UNLV at Air Force: Two of the Mountain West's two loss teams. Winner will be alone on top of the conference and hoping for help to take the NY6 spot.
Kansas State at Kansas: Kansas State is one of 4 teams tied in 2nd in the Big 12. This rivalry game keeps them alive.
Oklahoma State at Houston: Oklahoma State, despite last weeks loss, is still not out of Big 12 race yet. They need to win this game they are a touchdown favorite in and then need help.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, total: 7
Florida State
Michigan
Ohio State
Washington
Georgia
Liberty
(James Madison)
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 0, Conference USA: 0, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 0, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 0, total: 6
Tulane
Toledo
Alabama
Texas
Oregon
Louisville
