Teams with 1st Loss Week 9:
none
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 9 :
Penn State
Oklahoma State
Wake Forest
Syracuse
Cincinnati
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season:
Week 0/1: 38.9% (51 of 131)
Week 2: 37.5% (30 of 80)
Week 3: 34% (17 of 50)
Week 4: 36.4% (12 of 33)
Week 5: 23.8% (5 of 21)
Week 6: 6.25% (1 of 16)
Week 7: 40% (6 of 15)
Week 8: 33.3% (3 of 9)
Week 9: 0% (0 of 6)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
4: TCU, Ohio State/Michigan, Clemson, Georgia/Tennessee
-no changes
Week 8 Thoughts:
-The undefeated list remained unchanged, but the 1-loss list took some hits and this effects playoff bowls, the NY6, and conference races.
-Ohio State's 4th quarter gave them a win over Penn State and leaves the division now effectively down to them and Michigan. With 1-loss Illinois beating Nebraska, they are a game above Purdue and 2 games over everyone else in the division. They most definitely control their CFP destiny. That said, they play Michigan and Purdue still, and a lot of possibilities exist on that side.
-Which conference do you guy thinks is in a better spot for the playoff bowls? TCU, USC, UCLA, and Oregon all won this week while Oklahoma State got blown out and is removed playoff contention. That leaves Big 12 with one undefeated team (TCU) and no 1-loss teams while the PAC-12 has three 1-loss teams, but no undefeated ones.
-More on the Big 12 race; TCU is undefeated and atop the standings. Kansas State (whom TCU beat) is in 2nd with 1 conference loss, and there are three teams with 2-losses. TCU is becoming a significant favorite to make the championship game, but are not a shoe in yet and there is a lot of competition for the 2nd spot. With so many in the race, every loss is now a very big deal for the competitors.
-In the PAC-12, while talking about the three one loss teams, it should be noted Utah only has one conference loss too and is still very much in the PAC-12 race with Oregon, UCLA, and USC. Oregon is undefeated in conference. The 4 teams have only lost to each other in conference with Utah beating USC, but losing to UCLA and Oregon beating UCLA.
-The SEC has a race in both divisions. Georgia and Tennessee are obviously the teams in the east and the winner next week is about a shoe-in. In the west, LSU still only has one conference loss along with Alabama and Ole Miss. LSU had a week off and now will go up against Alabama leaving both SEC divisions on the line next week.
-The ACC's playoff hopes are mostly where they were last week, but the conference's other New Years Six hopes were definitely hurt. Wake Forest and Syracuse were both 1-loss teams, decently ranked, and both lost. One of them could still slide into New Year 6 position, but I don't think they control that anymore. North Carolina winning did help though.
-And then there were 2. We are down to just two 1-loss teams in Group of 5 conferences. With UCF beating Cincinnati, we are now down to just Tulane and Coastal Carolina. Another loss and I might tentatively put up a 2-loss list (probably with just teams from Group of 5 conferences), but I want to see how this play out just a bit more. The most likely scenario is a 2014 type one with a 2-loss team making the New Years 6.
Week 10 Thoughts:
-We have one games between undefeated teams this week, none between undefeated and 1-loss teams, and none between two 1-loss teams.
-Undefeated Tennessee at Undefeated Georgia: This game is for the SEC East. The winner is virtually certain to be in the SEC Championship in Atlanta and the winner controls their playoff bowl fate. The loser will still be very much in it, but will need some help. Biggest of all, whomever loses this game needs the other team to win out (especially beating a potential 1-loss Alabama in the SEC Championship). After this, the only other possible game between undefeated teams in the regular season is Ohio State/Michigan. If one of them loses before then, then this is the last game.
-Undefeated Clemson at Notre Dame: Clemson controls their CFP destiny, but once again find themselves only a small favorite in a game. This time it is against a Notre Dame team whom has been rising back up after some short comings earlier this year. Last week the Irish beat Syracuse a lot more convincingly than Clemson had (although it certainly was easier to have that game a week after instead of before the other one).
-Texas Tech at undefeated TCU: TCU is a pretty decent favorite, but not to the extent this would be stunning to see happen. Texas Tech beat Texas earlier in the year. TCU is the Big 12's best hope.
-1-loss Alabama at LSU: Alabama is a pretty strong favorite here, but LSU controls their SEC destiny since they only have one conference loss and have been playing well. If they beat Alabama here, odds are LSU is the one going to the SEC Championship (although a bit more wiggle room than in the east). It would be good for the Tennessee/Georgia loser if LSU wins.
-Appalachian State at 1-loss Coastal Carolina (Thursday): Coastal Carolina won being a small underdog last week. Can they do it again? They are the Sun Belt's best chance for the NY6.
1-loss Liberty at Arkansas: Liberty is a 2 touchdown underdog, but if they win this, they are very much in the running for a NY6 bowl in their final year as an independent.
-1-loss Tulane at Tulsa: Tulane controls their NY6 fate and are about a touchdown favorite on the road. If you don't want the American taking this NY6, root against Tulane here.
-Michigan State at 1-loss Illinois: One of these teams is ranked, controls their CFP destiny, and a 2 touchdown favorite. College football can be weird sometimes.
1-loss North Carolina at Virginia: North Carolina is decent favorite here. They have a 2 game lead in the final year of the Coastal division. They might be a dark horse CFP contender if a lot of chaos happens, but more likely them doing well is a bigger deal for Clemson. Should Clemson drop one, they would want as strong an opponent as possible in the ACC Championship and so the Tar Heels winning out is ideal.
1-loss UCLA at Arizona State: UCLA is a 10 point favorite on road. Not a game they can afford to lose and stay in conversation.
Not on lists, but:
Texas at Kansas State: Neither of these teams remain on our lists, but these teams are the 2nd and 3rd most likely to win the Big 12 and the winner will probably get close to TCU in odds. In a competition with a lot of teams close together, neither team can definitely afford to take a loss and get to the Big 12 Championship. Winner here though has a good chance of being one of the two.
UCF at Memphis: This is a year the American can lose the NY6 spot, but losses across the country keep them favorites. UCF has 2 losses, but beat Cincinnati last week. Them losing at a 5 point favorite in this week would leave just Tulane (1-loss) and Cincinnati (2-loss) in fairly good shape.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, SEC: 2, total: 6
Clemson
Michigan
Ohio State
Texas Christian
Georgia
Tennessee
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big 12: 0, Big Ten: 1, PAC-12: 3, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 10
North Carolina
Tulane
Illinois
Oregon
Liberty
Alabama
Southern California
Coastal Carolina
Mississippi
UCLA
