Teams with 1st Loss Week 8:
Miami (FL)
Mississippi
Texas Tech
Memphis
UNLV
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 8:
Western Kentucky
Nebraska
Tennessee
Louisiana State
Southern California
Utah
Washington
Teams with 1st Win Week 8:
Oregon State
Percent of Teams with 1st loss of the Season:
Week 0/1: 36.0% (49 of 136)
Week 2: 36.8% (32 of 87)
Week 3: 29.1% (16 of 55)
Week 4: 23.1% (9 of 39)
Week 5: 33.3% (10 of 30)
Week 6: 25% (5 of 20)
Week 7: 26.7% (4 of 15)
Week 8: 45.5% (5 of 11)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
5: This is a drop of 3 from last week (or 1 if we had kept our assumption of no more than one undefeated per conference). UNLV's loss removes our last undefeated from the Mountain West. Miami (FL) and Ole Miss's losses mean we can only have one undefeated in each the ACC and SEC.
Our remaining possible undefeated teams are: Ohio State/Indiana, Navy, Texas A&M, BYU, and Georgia Tech
Note: There is only remaining possible game between undefeated teams in the regular season and it is Ohio State vs. Indiana in the Big Ten Championship.
Week 8 Thoughts:
-We had a lot of movement this week. Let's start with the winless teams. Oregon State managed their first win against Lafayette removing them from the list. I'll add that fellow PAC-12 school Washington State once again lost a close one late against a ranked team (this time Virginia).
-The Big 12 had some shake-up at the top. Texas Tech was undefeated and the overwhelming favorite to win the conference, but they lost to last year's champ Arizona State. In the Holy War, Utah went in favored, but lost on the road to BYU to suffer their 2nd conference loss. This leaves BYU and Cincinnati (who beat Oklahoma State) atop the Big 12 with Houston, Arizona State, and Texas Tech in 2nd (one conference loss each). Both Cincinnati and Arizona State have one out of conference loss. I think a 2 loss team from the Big 12 will need a lot of help this year to get in the playoff, so of those 5 teams I think only BYU can afford a loss (at least before the championship game) and still be in it without winning the conference. To get two teams in, the conference is going to want BYU to make the championship undefeated, but then lose to whomever they play. A loss in the championship game based on last years committee might not hurt quite as much either so a 2nd loss suffered in the championship might not be quite as devastating as one suffered before. That will be something interesting to watch from the committee if we end up with 2 one-loss teams in the Big 12 Championship.
-The ACC had Miami lose to Louisville on Friday night. This isn't great for the conference's hope of having a very top seed, but does open things up a bit more for a 2nd team (or more if things go just right). Louisville is now ranked with just one close loss. Virginia came back to win again and has one loss themselves with a manageable schedule. Miami still has the Notre Dame win that keeps looking better. Georgia Tech was an underdog this week, but won and remains unbeaten. The ACC will likely get any undefeated and 1-loss teams in and, by my quick glance, I don't think the top teams have any more games against each other to force losses on each other.
-Alabama beat Tennessee and Georgia beat Ole Miss. Those two sitting toward the top seems very familiar even after all the changes in the conference. That said, Texas A&M is now the lone unbeaten team (including non-conference games). Vanderbilt is a legitimate CFP contender beating LSU. Looking forward, given the ranking and the fact the conference still has 7 teams with 0 or 1 loss, there are a lot of possibilities for CFP teams from the conference. The key to having as many as possible is to have a couple drop out and the rest win everything they can. I would definitely lean to the SEC having more than the three it had in the CFP last year.
-For the Big Ten in the playoffs, I think Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon are pretty solid and there will likely be high seeds for at least some of them (although most likely there will be a random loss or two sprinkled in the rest of the way). For a 4th team though, a lot will have to go right. Nebraska was moving into the rankings, but lost to Minnesota. USC, after the big Michigan win, lost to Notre Dame. Washington could have made a statement vs. Michigan this week, but lost. Iowa did manage a win against Penn State this week. The 2 loss teams in the conference are still in the running, but they need statement wins and to win out. We'll keep an eye out to see if any can.
-The Group of 5 race for the playoff spot had some big moves this week, but I don't think the odds on the conference going changed too much. UNLV lost to Boise State. They were the last undefeated in the Mountain West. Since Boise State got blown out by South Florida (a direct competitor) that hurts the conference's chances. On the other hand, Memphis had a surprise loss this week to UAB leaving the American with just Navy undefeated. I think a 1-loss American champ getting the nod right now is a pretty much shoe in so the other conferences need to hope for enough chaos to at least put one team in the American championship who is going to look a little weaker (ideally 3+ losses). That is certainly doable at least. The wild card continues to be if someone can pull off a huge upset out of conference (say during the week before Thanksgiving when several SEC teams play traditionally weaker opponents). I'll note here that Conference USA joins the MAC in no longer having any 1-loss teams.
Week 9 Thoughts:
-We have three games with 1-loss vs. 1-loss teams this week.
1-loss Ole Miss at 1-loss Oklahoma: While both might be able to afford one more loss and get in the playoff, there would be no room left for a loss if they don't pull this off.
1-loss South Florida at 1-loss Memphis: A week ago, this would have been ranked vs. ranked, but Memphis did lose last week. The winner still will be one of the favorites to take the playoff spot. Personally, I think if you are someone like Boise State, you need to root for a South Florida collapse late in the season (make it look like they were a strong team who fell apart; giving them losses, but making the earlier loss also seem decent). South Florida is a small favorite.
1-loss Missouri at 1-loss Vanderbilt: Both still have playoff hopes, but a 2nd loss wouldn't leave much room for mistakes. Vanderbilt is a small home favorite.
1-loss Houston at Arizona State: Arizona State is ranked again after a good win last week and competing for the Big 12. Houston has been under the radar, but only has a single loss. A win would get them more in the Big 12 conversation. They are an 8.5 point underdog.
Kennesaw State at Florida International and Western Kentucky at Louisiana Tech (Tuesday): These games involve 4 of the 5 teams most likely to win Conference USA by betting odds right now and the lines are close all around.
UCLA at undefeated Indiana: Huge line, but UCLA started the collapse at Penn State (or at least emphasized it after the loss to Oregon).
Undefeated BYU at Iowa State: BYU came off a huge win against rival Utah last week and is the only unbeaten in the Big 12. They are road underdogs this week. The Big 12 would prefer BYU to keep winning (at least until they play another playoff contender).
Northwestern at Nebraska, Illinois at Washington, Minnesota at Iowa: These are all 2-loss vs. 2-loss teams in the Big Ten. None are guaranteed in playoff if they win out, but all are out if they lose.
1-loss San Diego State at Fresno State: San Diego State's 1-loss was to Washington State. If they keep winning, they will start to make noise in the Group of 5 playoff picture. Fresno State isn't bad either though and San Diego State is a bit over a field goal favorite here.
Baylor at 1-loss Cincinnati: Cincinnati is still undefeated in league play and moving up the ranking. Win and they will continue to be one of the surprise teams of the year and very much in the Big 12 race. They are 5.5 point favorites here.
Texas at Mississippi State: Texas had a closer than expected game vs. Kentucky. Lose one more and they are out of playoff race.
Undefeated Texas A&M at LSU: Aggies are small favorites and are the last undefeated in the SEC. They cannot let off much though and still get to Atlanta. LSU is now in do or die territory. If they win, their playoff hopes stay alive. Lose and they are out.
Michigan at Michigan State and Tennessee at Kentucky: Both road teams need to win out to get to playoff. Both are favored this week.
Western Michigan at Miami (OH): These are the 2nd and 3rd favorites to win the MAC facing off against each other.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, Mountain West: 0, SEC: 1, total: 6
Georgia Tech
Texas A&M
Indiana
Ohio State
Brigham Young
Navy
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 3, American: 4, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 0, Mountain West: 2, SEC: 6, Sun Belt: 1, total: 20
Virginia
Tulane
South Florida
Cincinnati
San Diego State
Alabama
Georgia
James Madison
Vanderbilt
Houston
Oregon
Oklahoma
Louisville
North Texas
Missouri
Miami (FL)
Mississippi
Texas Tech
Memphis
UNLV
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 1, MAC:1, PAC-12: 0, total: 2
Sam Houston
Massachusetts
