Teams with 1st Loss Week 8:
Texas
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 8:
Sam Houston
Alabama
Nebraska
Arizona State
Texas Tech
James Madison
North Texas
Teams with 1st Win Week 8:
UTEP
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 28.4% (38 of 134)
Week 2: 37.5% (36 of 96)
Week 3: 28.3% (17 of 60)
Week 4: 39.5% (17 of 43)
Week 5: 26.9% (7 of 26)
Week 6: 36.8% (7 of 19)
Week 7: 8.3% (1 of 12)
Week 8: 9.1% (1 of 11)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 6
-We are down one this week as we lost our last undefeated in the SEC after Texas lost to Georgia. Before conference championship games, we can have 3 undefeated teams in the Big Ten if they all win out (Oregon, Indiana, and Penn State). That leaves our remaining possibilities of undefeateds at the end of the regular season as 2 of Indiana/Oregon/Penn State, plus Pitt/Miami (FL), BYU/Iowa State, Army/Navy, and Liberty.
Maximum Number of Games between Undefeated Teams in the Regular Season: 4
-No changes this week. Our only remaining games between undefeated teams the rest of the year will be in the conference championship games in the Big Ten, ACC, American, and Big 12.
Week 8 Thoughts:
-Previously winless UTEP got its first win of the year against Florida International. That only leaves two winless teams in the country.
-The SEC is a jumbled mess atop. Georgia beating Texas leaves no one without a loss overall and only Texas A&M and LSU undefeated in conference. Five teams have 1 conference loss. Alabama losing to Tennessee gives them a 2nd loss, which is likely more than they can recover from for the SEC race. They can still make the playoff, but need some help and have zero margin for error (which feels really odd after beating Georgia a few weeks ago). The race for the top of the SEC along with playoff bids for the conference is very interesting.
-The top of the ACC survived this week. Miami won a high scoring game with Louisville to stay unbeaten. One loss Clemson, SMU, and Duke all won as well and unbeaten Pitt was on bye. The ACC probably needs two 1-loss or unbeaten teams to get two in the playoff.
-BYU and Iowa State both had come from behind late victories to stay unbeaten and move up the rankings. The longer they can this way, the better for the Big 12 chances at two. 1-loss Kansas State continuing to win is big as well. Previous 1-loss Arizona State did lose to Cincinnati, leaving no other zero or 1-loss teams.
-In the Big Ten, Indiana demolished Nebraska. The Hoosiers are turning this into a special year, but their quarterback was injured (not season ending though). Ranked 1-loss Illinois beat Michigan, giving Michigan 3 losses (2 in-conference) and keeping this a good year for Illinois. USC has had a tough transition this year losing an east coast game to Maryland this week.
-Notre Dame's chances of making the playoff continue to climb back after the early season loss to Northern Illinois. They keep trucking through the schedule; this week with a win vs. Georgia Tech. It's not a world beater of a schedule this year, but the Texas A&M win keeps looking stronger and the upcoming Army and Navy games are looking better too.
Group of 5 Race:
-James Madison lost in the Sun Belt, likely removing them from playoff contention. Only the two Louisiana schools continue to have one loss and be decent contenders (although both need help)
-The Mountain West had UNLV beat Oregon State, which sets up a monster match-up with Boise State next week. The winner will likely be the Mountain West's only really good contender. The loser will have two losses, but still could get a rematch in the Mountain West Championship Game. Two losses might not cut it this year for the playoff though.
-Conference USA saw Sam Houston take their 2nd loss. Undefeated Liberty is likely the conference's only chance and they will need outside help.
-Army and Navy are both undefeated, ranked, and continue to roll. Memphis won the battle of the last 1-loss teams in the conference as they took out North Texas. Tulane remains in contention with two losses. I was going with the idea the Mountain West was the most likely to get the spot this year, but I am now thinking the American is more likely simply because there are so many more possibilities (although Boise State remains to me the most likely individual team to take the spot).
-The MAC is likely out of the race, but we saw Toledo beat Northern Illinois in what could be sneak peak of a Mountain West game as odd as that sounds.
Week 9 Thoughts:
-We have 6 games between undefeated and 1-loss teams or two 1-loss teams this week.
1-loss Syracuse at undefeated Pitt (Thursday): The ACC would love for Pitt to keep winning and keep moving up the rankings as either a dark horse playoff team or a team who would make another resume look stronger. Syracuse has done well this year too. The Mountain West would like a Syracuse win as it makes UNLV's loss to them look better.
1-loss Boise State at 1-loss UNLV (Friday): Winner will be the last one loss team in the Mountain West and the team the conference office will be rooting for the take the playoff spot. Boise State would have the easier time of it as they are already decently up the rankings and a close loss to #1 Oregon is as acceptable as it gets. On the flip side, the Mountain West would also prefer the winner to be someone who will still be around in 2 years.
1-loss Notre Dame at undefeated Navy: Navy is slowly moving up the rankings and a win would help the American a ton. On the flip side, Notre Dame is very much in the playoff race, but cannot afford a 2nd loss this year.
1-loss Illinois at undefeated Oregon: Illinois looked good beating Michigan last week. If Oregon is off their game, the Illini could shock the world and upend the Big Ten race. They are big long shots though.
1-loss LSU at 1-loss Texas A&M: The winner of this game is the improbable team atop the SEC all by themselves. Loser will have two overall losses though and have no margin for error the rest of the way for an at large playoff spot.
1-loss SMU at 1-loss Duke: Two of the ACC's one loss teams go against each other. SMU has had an amazing first season in the conference and wants the fairy tale to continue. They are favored to by 11.5. The ACC would probably prefer the already ranked SMU to keep winning (although do well in the first year might not be seen as ideal either).
Washington at undefeated Indiana: Indiana lost their quarterback last week, but had an amazing win vs. Nebraska. Talk of them as a dark horse for the playoff have started. Washington has had a rough first year in the conference, but comes in just under a touchdown underdog.
Undefeated BYU at UCF: BYU keeps winning and is atop the Big 12, but come into this one only a very small favorite. UCF was extremely close to upsetting Iowa State last week.
1-loss Missouri at Alabama: It feels odd that Mizzou is the 1-loss team in this game. If the tigers win, the perception of the season turns on a dime and playoff hopes return. Alabama has zero margin left. Winning the SEC is an extreme long shot now for Bama (2 losses and tie-breakers going against them with 2 likely competitors) and the any playoff chance is now down to winning out and hoping the rest works out. The Crimson Tide are almost a two touchdown favorite.
1-loss Texas at Vanderbilt: Huge underdogs, can Vandy do it again?
1-loss Louisiana-Monroe at South Alabama: If the Sun Belt is to get the playoff spot, I like a 1-loss Louisiana-Monroe's chances best because it would include an improbable win over Auburn. To get there though, they can't lose another. They are a 7.5 point underdog in this though.
Florida State at undefeated Miami (FL): Only mention this one really because Florida State will already have too many losses for a bowl with a loss here. College football is weird.
Undefeated Penn State at Wisconsin: Penn State came off a bye after a good comeback vs. USC, but USC followed that up with a loss at Maryland. Wisconsin is on a 3 game win streak. The badgers are 6.5 point underdogs. The Big Ten definitely wants a 1-loss Ohio State going to an undefeated Penn State in two weeks.
Kansas at 1-loss Kansas State: Kansas State has played great since the weird loss to BYU. Their instate rival can throw a huge monkey wrench in all their plans with a win this week. Kansas State is a 10 point favorite.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 2, American: 2, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 1, SEC: 0, total: 10
Miami (FL)
Iowa State
Pittsburgh
Indiana
Penn State
Brigham Young
Oregon
Army
Navy
Liberty
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 4, American: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 0, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 6, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 1, total 20
Clemson
Southern Methodist
Syracuse
Memphis
Kansas State
Illinois
Boise State
Washington State
Texas A&M
Louisiana State
Georgia
Missouri
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana-Lafayette
Notre Dame
UNLV
Tennessee
Duke
Ohio State
Texas
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, total: 2
(Kennesaw State)
Kent State
