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Topic: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 8
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ohio1317 · « **on:** October 23, 2026, 09:43:38 AM »

Sorry so late this week. There is a lot in it, but it was also a bit rushed.

Teams with 1st Loss Week 7:
Georgia
Notre Dame
Indiana

Teams with 2nd Loss Week 7:
Memphis
Alabama
Texas
Missouri
Wisconsin
Mississippi State
Oklahoma State
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
Florida Atlantic
Georgia State
Duke
Baylor
Nebraska

Teams with 1st Win Week 7:
Charlotte

Percent with 1st Loss:
Week 0/1: 38.4% (53 of 138)
Week 2: 38.8% (33 of 85)
Week 3: 32.7% (17 of 52)
Week 4: 37.1% (13 of 35)
Week 5: 31.8% (7 of 22)
Week 6: 40.0% (6 of 15)
Week 7: 33.33% (3 of 9)

Maximum Number of Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season: 4
-We can no longer have an SEC undefeated team. Our remaining undefeated teams are UCLA, James Madison, Miami (FL), and BYU/Utah/Texas Tech.

Team 7 Thoughts:
-Well, what a week in every way. We'll look at 24 team implications and where this thread might or might not go when I can think on it a bit more. For this season though, it means getting to the conference championship games are a bigger deal as it will be for the last time. For this week...

-Charlotte went on the road to Temple and won, giving them their first win. We now have two winless teams in Northern Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe.

-So we had 1,2, 5, 6, and 7 lose while #3 barely squeaked by in double overtime over a team they were three touchdown favorites over and #4 won a huge game, but in the process feels worse about their championship chance (Vegas odds also reflect that). I am not sure I have ever seen all the top 7 come out of a week like this. It was kind of surreal and very 2007ish.

-A week after we had the monster Georgia, Alabama game, both teams followed it up with losses. Going into last week, Georgia, Alabama, and Texas looked like the best in the conference and all were undefeated. Since that time, Alabama and Texas have lost twice and Georgia once. In addition to those three losing, we saw Ole Miss beat Missouri in a battle of one-loss teams and Kentucky win on the road at Oklahoma. LSU showed its not out of it yet too with a shutout against Mississippi State. The SEC still has 8 teams with 2 or fewer overall losses trying to stay in the playoff hunt. There are 4 teams with 1 conference loss atop the SEC standings. I wouldn't have guessed the top of the SEC at this point would be Georgia (not a surprise), Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ole Miss, but here we are. I would guess we end up with at least one 2 loss team in the final SEC Championship game. Current Vegas odds give Georgia and Ole Miss the best odds to end the season in Atlanta. Tennessee is just slightly behind old Ole Miss with Kentucky 4th and Alabama 5th.

-The Big 12 has had its dream season so far. BYU beat Notre Dame in a battle of undefeateds. Utah won a close one at Colorado and Texas Tech won big over Arizona State. Those are the conferences 3 unbeatens teams, which is half the total left in the whole country. Additionally, the conference has two 1-loss teams, both whom are ranked. Houston won a close one over former 1-loss Oklahoma State while Arizona was off. I still think most in the conference cannot afford more than one loss before the last Big 12 Championship Game and more of those will come with more games between these teams, but the conference is definitely in its best spot in years. The favorites for the last Big 12 Championship Game are, in order: BYU, Texas Tech, Utah, Houston, and Arizona.

-The game of the week was between Ohio State and Indiana. Ohio State won on the road, but Ohio State's odds of winning the conference and the national title dropped despite the effect of the victory (I am not sure Indiana's jumped, but I don't think they dropped much either). The season is definitely not falling apart for OSU, but there was struggle before and with their quarterback out at least for the rest of regular season and a tough rest of the schedule, there is a lot more uncertainty than there was. Even with a lot of mistakes, Indiana was very close to victory. Outside that, UCLA beat Wisconsin and is now the last undefeated in the conference. Northwestern went into an emotionally charged game with Michigan State and won a close one to stay ranked. Oregon and Michigan kept their fringe playoff hopes alive by beating Nebraska and Penn State by 3 a piece. Ohio State is a very large favorite to at least make the Big Ten Championship followed by Indiana and UCLA with very close odds (the two do not play) and then Oregon and Iowa.

-Miami started as a 3 touchdown favorites over rival Florida State. A double overtime later, they came out on top. Given the upsets across the country, the ACC will take it. In a weird week, this puts Miami all the way up to #1 in both polls. Meanwhile, the ACC's best chance at a 2nd in, Wake Forest, won easily at Cal. Ranked 1-loss SMU beat Virginia. Duke and Pitt both suffered their 2nd losses. To me, the only ones with real chances for at large playoff spots now are Wake Forest and SMU. The two do play each other, but SMU also has a Notre Dame game they will be underdogs in while the Wake Forest loss was to Miami. When it comes up, I expect the ACC to be rooting for Wake Forest for that reason, but the two are likely pretty equal. Also worth noting for the conference, North Carolina will get oversized attention when doing well because of Bill Belichick. Well, after beating Duke, they are 4-2 and have looked better as the season has progressed. Continued progress will probably be a bigger deal in other years and it's probably too late for an at large CFP run, but the game with Miami in a couple weeks has potential to draw extra eyeballs. The favorites for making the last ACC Championship Game are: Miami (by a ton), Wake Forest, SMU, and, a bit down, Louisville.

-If this week was the BCS Era: Thinking on the new playoff and how this weekend reminded me of 2007, I thought about the implications of this week in different times. During the BCS, this last weekend would have been even more crazy than it was. For the national championship, we would have started the weekend with Indiana and Georgia controlling their destiny. Everyone else was going to need help. Both of them lost and the most immediate ones to be helped would have looked to be Notre Dame and Miami (FL). Notre Dame lost too though shortly after and the Miami double overtime win likely would have been the difference between being #1 and in control of their destiny or dropping out and having a really hard time getting back in. The last second not catch by Indiana would have kept Ohio State's hopes alive while meaning Indiana needed some help. The Big 12, with three undefeated teams, would be looking great for the championship for the moment. UCLA may pass their champ if it wins out, but no one else would be likely to. Beyond those, this last weekend would have seen Alabama eliminated from likely championship bowl contenders (we only once had a 2 loss team in and it took a lot to get there). Going forward, you would have everyone following the race rooting for/against the remaining undefeated in the Big 12 and Miami. The Big Ten and SEC would both want those eliminated. In short, it would have turned a crazy week, even crazier.

Group of 6 Playoff Race:
-Note: I have not seen for sure if the Group of 6 conference championship games are going away or not. My guess is yes, but in theory they can play still (a week early maybe).

-Boise State remains the slight Vegas favorite to make the playoff. They are the only one loss team in the PAC-12. Oregon State I think still stands a chance too, but would need help from at least James Madison and probably a couple others. Those two are overwhelming favorites to make the first and likely last new PAC-12 Championship Game.

-The American saw both Memphis and Florida Atlantic lose. This leaves just UTSA with a single loss. If they win out, they will be heavily debated by the committee. Should they lose, the American will need some help if it produces a 2+-loss champ. The favorites for what will likely be the last American Championship Game are: UTSA, North Texas, Army, and Memphis (and all have fairly decent odds).

-James Madison won the game of the week in the Sun Belt. No one else in the conference has less than 2 losses, but James Madison is still undefeated. They need to win out and it wouldn't hurt to do it convincingly, since I think a few of the potential one loss teams could be put in over them undefeated. James Madison is the overwhelming favorite to win the Sun Belt East. In the west, Louisiana Tech, Louisiana-Lafayette and South Alabama all have fairly decent odds of making what could be the last Sun Belt Championship Game.
Later Note: I wrote this earlier, but before posting, James Madison did lose on Thursday.

-The three one loss teams in the Mountain West (Air Force, New Mexico, and North Dakota State) all won. This sets up a huge game between North Dakota State and New Mexico this week. New Mexico is only behind James Madison and Boise State in the playoff odds. New Mexico and North Dakota State are the favorites to make the likely final Mountain West Championship Game. They are followed by UNLV and Air Force.

-Liberty was off this week (the only Conference USA team I see with a narrow path to the playoff). Jacksonville State did move to 3-0 in conference. Liberty and Jacksonville State are the favorites to play for likely the last Conference USA Championship Game. They are followed by longer time members Western Kentucky and Florida International.

-In the MAC, Western Michigan and Ohio moved to 3-0 in conference. Toledo gave Eastern Michigan their first loss. The favorites to play in what is likely the last MAC Championship Game are, in order: Western Michigan, Ohio, Toledo, and a bit back Miami.

Week 8 Thoughts:
-We have no games between undefeated teams this week. In fact, we only have 2 possible ones left in the regular season and both possibilities are in the Big 12 (BYU/Utah and the winner of that vs. a possible undefeated Texas Tech in the Big 12 Championship). If they don't materialize, the Notre Dame/BYU game might have been our last. This week we have one game between an undefeated and a 1-loss team and one game between two 1-loss teams.

1-loss Houston at undefeated Utah: Houston only has the close loss to Texas Tech and is still in the playoff/Big 12 race with a win, but not a loss. Utah wants to remain one of the three Big 12 unbeatens. The Utes are 6.5 point favorites.

1-loss North Dakota State at 1-loss New Mexico: The two overwhelming favorites to win the Mountain West. The winner is the best shot for the conference at the playoff. New Mexico stands little better chance with a win since it's only loss was to Oklahoma (and not by a terrible margin). New Mexico is a small favorite.

Undefeated James Madison at Appalachian State (Thursday): James Madison is a 12.5 point favorite. They probably can't afford to lose, but how they look might matter in a close debate. Everyone in the Group of 6 conferences outside the Sun Belt (and maybe a few American conference offices) want them losing. Edit: Wrote this before Thursday, but was late getting up. James Madison lost.

1-Loss Liberty at Kennesaw State (Thursday): Liberty is definitely a long shot for the playoff, but they do have a small chance if they can win out and get a lot of chaos. Edit: Wrote this before Thursday, but was late getting up. Liberty won.

Undefeated Texas Tech at Cincinnati: The Red Raiders are a bit over 10 point favorites. They control everything if they keep winning. The Big 12 chances at multiple continue to increase with them winning. Cincinnati could really use a top win.

Western Michigan at Toledo: The two favorites to win the MAC face off. Toledo is a small home favorite.

1-loss Indiana at Michigan: Indiana still controls their destiny on everything but the Big Ten. A second loss would put them on the edge. Michigan has been left for dead, but are less than a touchdown underdog. Win this, and people will start talking about a late playoff run (although they have to win out).

Pitt at undefeated Miami (FL) and Cal at 1-loss SMU: Both ranked teams are 19.5 favorites. The ACC really needs them and Wake Forest (bye week) to keep winning.

LSU at Auburn: Playoff and SEC title elimination game. Feels bigger after the huge wins for both last week. LSU is favored.

Oregon at Illinois: Oregon still in the playoff and Big Ten race but has no margin for error. They a bit under 10 point favorites

Michigan State at undefeated UCLA: Michigan State is a large underdog, but has been improving in my view. UCLA is the last undefeated in the Big Ten and has everything in front of them if they keep winning. The Big Ten definitely wants them to for at least now.

1-loss Iowa at Minnesota: I think Iowa has a bit underappreciated odds of making the playoff. They have to win a pig though to keep that going.

Undefeated BYU at UCF: BYU has a little margin of error right now, but that disappear immediately if they aren't ready for the next game after the huge win against Notre Dame. They are a 6.5 point road favorite.

1-loss Tennessee at South Carolina: Tennessee is tied atop the SEC, but after the big win last week vs. Alabama, they are a road underdog here.

Vanderbilt at 1-loss Kentucky: The wildcats are definitely one of the biggest surprises of the season. They are decent favorites and, if they win, stay atop the SEC going into the last weekend of October.

1-loss Ole Miss at Texas: This is probably an elimination game for Texas despite the Ohio State win early. Ole Miss has recovered nicely since the loss to Florida and is thinking SEC title. Texas is a small favorite.

Iowa State at 1-loss Arizona: Arizona is slowly moving up the ranking with an outside shot at winning the Big 12.

1-loss USC at Wisconsin: USC controls their destiny, but are barely a favorite over a rebounding Wisconsin. The Big Ten would be happier if USC kept rising in the rankings.

1-loss UTSA at Tulane: UTSA has the best chance in the American to make the playoff, but a 2nd loss for the last American 1-loss team makes things more complicated. UTSA is only a 2.5 favorite.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 1, SEC: 0, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 0, total: 6
Miami (FL)
Texas Tech
Brigham Young
Utah
UCLA
James Madison

1-Loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 1, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 5, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 3, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 4, Sun Belt: 0, independents: 1, total: 20
Southern Methodist
Wake Forest
UTSA
Arizona
Houston
Ohio State
Southern California
Iowa
Northwestern
Liberty
New Mexico
Air Force
Boise State
Kentucky
Mississippi
Tennessee
North Dakota State
Georgia
Notre Dame
Indiana

Remaining Winless Teams: American: 0, Mountain West: 1, Sun Belt: 1, total: 2
Northern Illinois
Louisiana-Monroe

MikeDeTiger · « **Reply #1 on:** October 23, 2026, 10:15:25 AM »

Excellent as always. Much better than all the digital ink spilled behind a lot of paywalls. I guess the best things in life really are free.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #2 on:** October 23, 2026, 10:25:28 AM »

Yep, this is great.

Brutus Buckeye · « **Reply #3 on:** **Today** at 01:46:26 AM »

James Madison pulled a Michigan, and lost to Appalacian State.

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Topic: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 8

ohio1317

Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 8

MikeDeTiger

Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 8

847badgerfan

Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 8

Brutus Buckeye

Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 8