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Topic: B1G Divisional races after week 6

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medinabuckeye1

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B1G Divisional races after week 6
« on: October 12, 2021, 12:43:13 PM »
B1G-E:

  • 3-0/6-0 Michigan, controls their own destiny.  
  • 3-0/6-0 Michigan State, controls their own destiny.  
  • 3-0/5-1 Ohio State, controls their own destiny.  
  • 2-1/5-1 Penn State, controls their own destiny.  

The other three teams each have at least two losses including at least one to one of the teams above so they are mathematically in the race but nearly hopeless on a practical level.  


Penn State's loss to Iowa was non-divisional so they still control their own destiny but they have a little bit less margin for error than the other three.  Ohio State's loss to Oregon could only matter in a convoluted multi-team tie.  Games among these four are:
  • PSU @ tOSU, 10/30
  • M @ MSU, 10/30
  • M @ PSU, 11/13
  • MSU @ tOSU, 11/20
  • tOSU @ M, 11/27
  • PSU @ MSU, 11/27

If there are any advantages to be gleaned here it is HFA where:
  • tOSU has two home (PSU, MSU) and one road (M)
  • MSU has two home (M, PSU) and one road (tOSU)
  • M has one home (tOSU) and two road (MSU, PSU)
  • PSU has one home (M) and two road (tOSU, MSU)

B1G-W:
  • 3-0/6-0 Iowa, controls their own destiny.  
  • 1-1/3-2 Minnesota, controls their own destiny.  
  • 1-1/3-2 Purdue, needs a MN loss to regain control of their own destiny.  
  • 1-2/2-3 Wisconsin, needs an IA loss to regain control of their own destiny.  

The other three teams each have at least two losses including at least one to one of the teams ahead of them so they are mathematically in the race but nearly hopeless on a practical level.  

If Minnesota (vs UNL) and Purdue (@ IA) both lose this week the race will be down to just Iowa and Wisconsin for all practical purposes.  

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LittlePig

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 6
« Reply #1 on: October 12, 2021, 01:21:48 PM »
To make matters worse for any team in the West trying to catch Iowa,  Nebraska has emerged as potentially the 2nd best team in the West but Neb already has 3 conference losses.  So while Neb really has no chance, they could at the same time,  end up help killing any chance Minn, Pur, or Wiscy have for a title.  Not to mention maybe NW and ILL sneaking in an upset here or there.

The West standings could end up similar to 2018,  where the division winner finished 8-1 and 3 teams tied for 2nd at 5-4.
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 6
« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2021, 02:20:22 PM »
Which of the excluded teams would have the "easiest" path to the CCG, compared to the others? 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 6
« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2021, 04:03:46 PM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 12, 2021, 02:20:22 PM
Which of the excluded teams would have the "easiest" path to the CCG, compared to the others?
You love asking these.  

It is definitely a B1G-W team simply because Iowa hasn't played a divisional game yet.  Oddly, they are 3-0 in the league but they haven't beaten a B1G-W team.  Therefore, I'd say it is Northwestern which, almost controls their own destiny.  The Wildcats are 0-2 but the only B1G-W team they lost to is Nebraska which has more losses than they do.  If they were to win out, they'd finish 7-2 and give losses to MN (their second), IA (their first), UW (their third), PU (their second) and IL (their fourth).  

If Northwestern won out they would be no worse than one game behind Iowa, tied with MN/PU, and ahead of UW/IL/UNL.  They'd own the H2H tiebreaker over all relevant teams so all they need is one additional Iowa loss and they are set.  Actually, if NU wins this weekend (vs RU) and Iowa loses (vs PU), the Wildcats will control their own destiny.  Conversely, if NU loses and IA wins, the Wildcats will be all but mathematically eliminated.  
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 6
« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2021, 05:16:22 PM »
That would be sweet. 

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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 6
« Reply #5 on: October 13, 2021, 10:45:04 AM »
Quote from: LittlePig on October 12, 2021, 01:21:48 PM
To make matters worse for any team in the West trying to catch Iowa,  Nebraska has emerged as potentially the 2nd best team in the West but Neb already has 3 conference losses.  So while Neb really has no chance, they could at the same time,  end up help killing any chance Minn, Pur, or Wiscy have for a title. 
This is a really good point.  Nebraska started out looking just dreadful in their loss to Illinois and they have three losses since then but the three more recent losses were each competitive, one-score losses and came to teams currently ranked #4 (OU), #8 (M), and #10 (MSU).  At this point based on our current Power Rankings, the Cornhuskers are:
  • Iowa's toughest remaining opponent
  • Wisconsin's second toughest (behind Iowa)
  • Minnesota's second toughest (behind Iowa)
  • Purdue's fourth toughest (behind Iowa, tOSU, and MSU)

It would be interesting if we get to Thanksgiving weekend and a team that was left for dead early on ends up the focus of the B1G-W because they are hosting the Hawkeyes.  
Quote from: LittlePig on October 12, 2021, 01:21:48 PM
The West standings could end up similar to 2018,  where the division winner finished 8-1 and 3 teams tied for 2nd at 5-4.
This obviously will not happen exactly, but if we just assume that the higher ranked team in our Power Rankings wins each remaining game, the final standings would be:
  • 9-0/12-0 Iowa
  • 5-4/7-5 Minnesota
  • 5-4/6-6 Wisconsin (Assuming they beat Army)
  • 4-5/6-6 Nebraska
  • 2-7/4-8 Purdue
  • 2-7/3-9 Illinois
  • 0-9/2-10 Northwestern

That is pretty similar to 2018 and a Nebraska upset of Iowa on Black Friday would put Iowa at 8-1 and the three teams behind them tied at 5-4.  

The above is a pretty good way to get a handle on what each team needs on a practical level.  For the top few contenders (after Iowa):
Minnesota needs the following upsets:
  • They need to upset Iowa (knocks Iowa down to 8-1 and gets them up to 6-3):  11/13 in Iowa City.  
  • They need to upset Wisconsin (gets them to 7-2):  11/27 in Minneapolis.  
  • They need to upset Nebraska (gets them to 8-1, tied with Iowa, and they win the tie based on H2H):  This weekend in Minneapolis.  
Wisconsin:
  • They need to upset Iowa (knocks Iowa down to 8-1 and gets them up to 6-3):  10/30 in Madison
  • They need to upset Nebraska (gets them up to 7-2):  11/20 in Madison
  • They need somebody else to upset Iowa:  Most likely UNL on 11/26 in Lincoln or Minnesota on 11/13 in Iowa City

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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 6
« Reply #6 on: October 16, 2021, 06:50:05 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on October 12, 2021, 04:03:46 PM
You love asking these. 

It is definitely a B1G-W team simply because Iowa hasn't played a divisional game yet.  Oddly, they are 3-0 in the league but they haven't beaten a B1G-W team.  Therefore, I'd say it is Northwestern which, almost controls their own destiny.  The Wildcats are 0-2 but the only B1G-W team they lost to is Nebraska which has more losses than they do.  If they were to win out, they'd finish 7-2 and give losses to MN (their second), IA (their first), UW (their third), PU (their second) and IL (their fourth). 

If Northwestern won out they would be no worse than one game behind Iowa, tied with MN/PU, and ahead of UW/IL/UNL.  They'd own the H2H tiebreaker over all relevant teams so all they need is one additional Iowa loss and they are set.  Actually, if NU wins this weekend (vs RU) and Iowa loses (vs PU), the Wildcats will control their own destiny.  Conversely, if NU loses and IA wins, the Wildcats will be all but mathematically eliminated. 


Not so impractical anymore, is it. 

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LittlePig

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 6
« Reply #7 on: October 16, 2021, 09:16:30 PM »
Suddenly,  the West looks like a wide open race

Purdue, Minn, Iowa all with 1 conference loss.  Iowa with a loss to Purdue.  Purdue with a loss to Minnesota. 

The division winner will probably end up with at least 2 conferences losses and still could finish alone in first. 
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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 6
« Reply #8 on: October 16, 2021, 11:27:58 PM »
Yeah, Medina really has his work cut out for him, sorting out all of the various scenarios.
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: B1G Divisional races after week 6
« Reply #9 on: October 18, 2021, 04:01:15 AM »
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on October 16, 2021, 11:27:58 PM
Yeah, Medina really has his work cut out for him, sorting out all of the various scenarios.
Well here are the basics:

B1G-W teams that control their own destiny:
  • 2-1 Minnesota
  • 1-2 Northwestern 
  • 1-2 Wisconsin 
Teams that almost control their own destiny:
  • 3-1 Iowa, needs a Purdue loss
  • 2-1 Purdue, needs a Minnesota loss
Teams that have no practical chance:
  • 1-3 Illinois 
  • 1-4 Nebraska 

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