Teams with 1st Loss Week 6:
Vanderbilt
Houston
Iowa State
Louisville
Maryland
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 6:
(Delaware)
New Mexico
Minnesota
Mississippi State
Penn State
Texas
Boise State
Louisiana-Monroe
Michigan State
Texas State
Central Florida
California
Florida State
Teams with 1st Win Week 6:
UCLA
Percent of Teams with 1st loss of the Season:
Week 0/1: 36.0% (49 of 136)
Week 2: 36.8% (32 of 87)
Week 3: 29.1% (16 of 55)
Week 4: 23.1% (9 of 39)
Week 5: 33.3% (10 of 30)
Week 6: 25% (5 of 20)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
-I post this to two boards. This section started when MedinaBuckeye on the cfb51 Big Ten boards (originally College Football News Big Ten board) started doing it with each post. This year, Jimrtex on the csnbbs realignment board has been tallying the true numbers. I went ahead and figured out them this week and remembered why I haven't till this week. Credit Jim for the work in the last few weeks, because even figuring this week was a pain in the neck and there were a lot fewer moving parts (if I'm off let me know).
8 (6 if assume no more than one conference winner): If I figured it right, we can theoretically have two undefeated teams after conference championship games in the SEC and ACC. In the SEC, we could have Alabama with a non-conference loss take one spot in the championship game and tie breakers could work to leave out one of two unbeatens depending on rest of the year results. It works similar in the ACC with Virginia possibly taking a spot over one of an unbeaten Georgia Tech or Miami. Everywhere else, the remaining unbeaten teams would have already played teams they are tied with in conference standings. That leaves us the possibility of one undefeated in each of the Big Ten, Big 12, American, and Mountain West and two in the SEC and ACC.
Week 6 Thoughts:
-The biggest implications for the week were in the Big Ten. Penn State's shocking loss to previously winless UCLA (the team I thought most likely to finish that way due to schedule) gives them back to back losses. While I think part of it was probably a hangover from the emotion filled week before and expect a comeback, this leaves them with 2-losses, entirely out of the rankings, and needing a lot of help to make Indianapolis even if they win out. For the Big Ten as a whole, this makes getting four in again much less likely as Penn State will now need to win out to get a chance (which would include winning against Indiana and at Ohio State). While there are still plenty of scenarios for the conference to get four in, the conference right now should be happy if things work out to get three in with a couple high seeds. Too much back and forth in the upper middle tier in the conference could even put the conference in danger of only two in, but I think that's still fairly unlikely. Beyond Penn State, I'll note Washington went on the (very long) road and won at Maryland (whom had been playing pretty decent).
-What would have otherwise been the upset of the week (from ranking profile anyway) was Florida beating Texas. Texas started #1 in the country and is now out of the ranking and, with 2 losses, likely cannot afford another and have any chance at the CFP. Florida only had one win before this week, but their schedule had been very rough. More important for the conference race, Alabama beat Vanderbilt and continues to be the favored to win the conference after their slight dip down last year.
-The ranked teams in the Big 12 won other than Iowa State falling to Cincinnati. The Bearcats coach has been in the hot seat, but this win does put Cincinnati with the 3rd best odds to win the Big 12 and they should be favored their next several games. Texas Tech meanwhile won the only battle of unbeaten teams from last week, beating Houston. I think the Big 12 is the least likely to end up with 2 teams in the playoff of the Power 4 conferences again this year, but teams are starting to move up the rankings. I believe that if they can get a 1 loss team who is not conference champ they will definitely get two in. A 2-loss non-champ is also possible this year, but most options would be sweating coming selection day. There are certainly scenarios for three Big 12 teams in too, but there is less margin for error for the Big 12 than anywhere else for that. If they are to get it though, they need the contenders to narrow which would force up the top teams higher in the rankings.
-In the ACC, Miami beat Florida State. Florida State needs a lot to get back in the ACC race with two conference losses, but is not out of it yet. For the playoff, two losses will probably be OK for them given the Alabama win keeps looking better, but they cannot afford another. Meanwhile, ranked 1-loss Virginia went on road and beat previously unbeaten Louisville. I would lean to Virginia's hardest remaining game being at Duke, so, if they can keep winning, they are going to start to rise up the rankings and be a dark horse playoff contender. They will be helped a lot if Florida State can win well from here (making their win look better).
-Between Group of 5 conferences, we saw Navy beat Air Force in a closer one. The Mountain West would have liked a bit of a boost vs. the American it didn't get there. The bigger deal though was Boise State losing to Notre Dame. Boise State is favored to win the Mountain West, but now has two losses including a bad opening night one to the American's South Florida. Beating Notre Dame would have helped counter a lot of that, but it wasn't to be. I haven't seen betting odds on it, but at this point, I would have to think the American champ taking the spot is probably in the 80% range. That said, a lot will happen the next two months. For their own chances, the Sun Belt and Conference USA really need their last two 1-loss teams to look impressive or get a huge out of conference win and then hope for chaos. The MAC is in the same boat, but without a 1-loss team, there would have to be a huge out of conference upset and even more help. The biggest challenger to the American in my view right now remains UNLV who has moved up to the 2nd best odds to win the Mountain West. If they can stay unbeaten and get a bit of chaos in the American, I could definitely see them taking the spot.
Week 7 Thoughts:
-We have 1 game between undefeated teams and several winnable games for our remaining winless teams.
Undefeated Indiana at Undefeated Oregon: Winner will be a favorite to go to Indianapolis. Indiana's win over Illinois still looks decent, while a bit of the shine came off Oregon's win at Penn State this week. Oregon is a 7.5 point favorite, but Indiana will feel very different this year with a win like this than they did last year. Amazing how far they can come so quickly. Oregon will probably take even more first place votes with a win here.
1-loss Louisiana Tech at Kennesaw State (Thursday): The favorite to win Conference USA is about a touchdown Thursday night favorite.
Jacksonville State at winless Sam Houston (Thursday): Sam Houston a little more than a touchdown home underdog while looking for their first win.
1-loss South Florida at undefeated North Texas (Friday): South Florida started the year with huge wins over Boise State and Florida. They have never been the favorite to win the conference though as far as I have seen. North Texas is unbeaten and a small favorite.
Southern Miss at Georgia Southern (Friday): A close line for a Friday game. Southern Miss 4th best odds in the Sun Belt.
Undefeated Ohio State at 1-loss Illinois: Illinois has recovered well since their bad loss to Indiana. A win here would make them start to think about conference championships. How Ohio State will look vs. how Indiana looked will be compared regardless.
1-loss Alabama at undefeated Missouri: The Tide are the favorites to win the conference again, but Mizzou is unbeaten and less than a field goal underdog to win at home.
Winless UMass at Kent State: UMass is looking for their first win of the year and their first as a re-instituted MAC member. They are 3.5 point underdogs on the road.
Undefeated Oklahoma vs. Texas: The Red River Shootout would have been bigger if Texas had won last week, but we still have Oklahoma coming in at #6, yet still a small underdog. The conference would probably prefer Oklahoma win this and stay up in the rankings. The outside world would probably be better off if Texas won to help limit possible SEC spots.
1-loss Iowa State at Colorado: Iowa State is still ranked, but only a small favorite on the road.
1-loss Nebraska at 1-loss Maryland: Nebraska's win over Cincinnati looks a bit better now. A road win here and Nebraska's ranked vote totals should jump. This is a chance for Maryland to rebound from loss last week too though.
Wake Forest at winless Oregon State: Oregon State is 2.5 underdog for their first win.
1-loss TCU at Kansas State: TCU is getting votes, but a small road underdog.
Air Force at undefeated UNLV: UNLV is the Mountain West's best chance at the playoff. They are a 5.5 point favorite.
Florida at undefeated Texas A&M: Can Florida knock off a high ranking Texas team two weeks in a row?
Kansas at Texas Tech: Texas Tech's is the big favorite, but Kansas only has one loss. A win would put them back in the conference race.
1-loss Georgia at Auburn: Georgia is only a 3.5 point favorite. Lose this and their odds of being left out grow a lot; that is something that would have sounded unlikely not too long ago. Auburn keeps a small chance with a win.
1-loss Michigan at 1-loss USC: Two massive brands, but only Michigan ranked for now. Both remain in the playoff race, but need to win. USC would have two losses if lose and likely out of Big Ten race.
Undefeated BYU at 1-loss Arizona: BYU is a point and a half favorite. They are one of two unbeatens left in the Big 12 and the conference would prefer to keep it that way. A win would leave Arizona in race though and push them toward getting ranked.
1-loss Arizona State at 1-loss Utah: Both could, at most, afford one loss and still be competing for an at large spot in the playoff (not a lock would get). With a win, either continue to control playoff destiny. Utah would have 2 conference losses with another loss. Utah is a 5.5 point favorite.
UCF at 1-loss Cincinnati: How does Cincinnati perform with a target on their back after a big win?
Iowa at Wisconsin: Disappointing year for Wisconsin, but only a 3.5 point underdog in this huge rivalry.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 2, American: 3, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 3, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 4, total: 15
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
Missouri
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Indiana
Ohio State
Memphis
Brigham Young
UNLV
Oregon
Mississippi
North Texas
Navy
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 2, Big 12: 7, Big Ten: 6, Conference USA: 2, Mountain West: 2, SEC: 5, Sun Belt: 2, total: 28
Virginia
Tulane
South Florida
Arizona State
Cincinnati
Utah
Arizona
Texas Christian
Michigan
Southern California
Illinois
Nebraska
Washington
Louisiana Tech
Western Kentucky
Fresno State
San Diego State
Alabama
Georgia
Louisiana State
Tennessee
James Madison
Old Dominion
Vanderbilt
Houston
Iowa State
Maryland
Remaining Winless Teams: Big Ten: 0, Conference USA: 1, MAC:1, PAC-12: 1, total: 3
Sam Houston
Oregon State
Massachusetts
