Teams with 1st Loss Week 5:
Georgia
Mississippi
Illinois
Utah
Louisville
Washington State
Central Florida
Teams with 1st Win Week 5:
Miami (OH)
Old Dominion
New Mexico
Wyoming
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 28.4% (38 of 134)
Week 2: 37.5% (36 of 96)
Week 3: 28.3% (17 of 60)
Week 4: 39.5% (17 of 43)
Week 5: 26.9% (7 of 26)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 8
-I am still assuming no more than one undefeated per conference for probably 1 more week. I plan on figuring out true exact amount next week.
-We lost the potential for one undefeated with the loss of Washington State. We now can have champions from all the conferences finish undefeated except the MAC.
Week 5 Thoughts:
-We lost more than half our winless teams this week, dropping from 7 to just 3.
-I added the one loss list this week. I figure most teams who are not traveling for a 1st round game of the playoff will finish on either the undefeated or 1-loss list. The highest Group of 5 champion is also usually on one of those two lists.
-The big game of the week was of course Georgia/Alabama and the new structure makes the results interesting. Georgia had a bit of a margin of error for making it to the SEC Championship in Atlanta, but with a top heavy SEC, they probably don't have much left after this. Fortunately and unfortunately, they play both Texas and Tennessee. Doing so means they probably still effectively control their SEC championship future, but a loss in either will probably sink those chances. They also do need to hope a little now that one of the undefeated teams they don't play doesn't catch fire. On the flip side, Georgia is probably still fine to make the CFP even with 1 more loss.
-Notre Dame's chances at the CFP continue to creep back up despite the Northern Illinois loss looking worse. The win vs. Louisville was close to a must a win and they got it.
-The ACC's week could have been a lot better, but could have been worse too. Their chances at 2 bids are still alive but they really need their top teams to keep winning to get it. Louisville winning would been nice, but if Miami had dropped one too, this was going to start looking very difficult. As things stand, Miami won, Clemson has looked good since the Georgia game, Louisville is still be ranked, and Duke and Pitt are still undefeated so there are still decent scenarios to get two in (but they have closed some).
-I would definitely not have guessed before the season that BYU and Iowa State would be the last two undefeateds in the Big 12. UCF and Utah were the favorites to win the Big 12 going into last weekend and both lost. BYU in particular I will find interesting to watch as it seems there is a lot of years they have started stronger than expectations, but where they have disappointed down the stretch. Either way, it has been a good run for them. Elsewhere in the Big 12, Kansas State beat Oklahoma State in what felt like a playoff elimination game. The conference, like the ACC, would really like at least two teams in and needs to avoid too much parity if they are to get them.
-Penn State had what will probably be a somewhat overlooked win over an Illinois team that is fairly decent this year while Indiana is off to a 5-0 start. Michigan keeps finding wins in the Big Ten, but hasn't looked great doing it. I think they are either going to take a step back up or start to see some losses. USC looked rough for awhile, but beat Wisconsin. Oregon and UCLA finished the day in a game that is odd to think of as Big Ten still.
-The race for the Group of 5 spot remains very competitive. UNLV responded to all the controversy this week by blowing out a team they were only favored in by a couple of points. Overall, I think the Mountain West looks the best it has in years to take the spot as Boise State beat a previous unbeaten Washington State as well. That said, James Madison in the Sun Belt has not taken it down a notch and the American has usually been the one given the most respect for strength of schedule. Liberty (Conference USA's 1 big contender) had a bit of a blow with the Appalachian State game having to be canceled. They might try hard to find a way to replace that game as they might need a schedule boost to be more competitive for the spot. In the MAC, Northern Illinois lost their advantage from the Notre Dame win fully with a 2nd straight loss.
Week 6 Thoughts:
-There are no games between undefeated teams this week. There are 10 games between undefeated and 1-loss teams or between 2 one-loss teams.
Undefeated UNLV at 1-loss Syracuse (Friday): UNLV likely controls their destiny for the playoff spot. They go on the road as a 4.5 point dog. Winning will keep them ranked and help both UNLV itself and other potential Mountain West champs. On the other side, Syracuse lone loss was a close one to Stanford.
Undefeated Missouri at 1-loss Texas A&M: The Aggies are a slight home favorite. Both teams (particularly Missouri) are potential playoff teams if all breaks right. Both have had issues, but they only have 1 loss between them.
1-loss SMU at 1-loss Louisville: SMU has had a nice start to their first season in the ACC and Louisville is coming off a close, but disappointing loss to Notre Dame. The Cardinals are favored by a touchdown, but it might be a good week for SMU to be facing them.
Undefeated Pitt at North Carolina: Pitt is 4-0 and one of the last three unbeaten in the ACC. North Carolina has lost two straight with a come from behind win by Duke last week and the surprising James Madison loss the week before. It is better for the ACC if Pitt wins this and gets ranked or close to ranked. Pitt is a slight favorite.
1-loss Ole Miss at 1-loss South Carolina: The Rebels are 9 point favorites here, but are coming off a disappointing loss last week to Kentucky and South Carolina has been playing good football this year (including a 31-6 week 2 win over Kentucky).
Undefeated Indiana at Northwestern: I point this game out only because I think it is nice to see that it is the first week of October and Indiana is already playing for bowl eligibility.
Undefeated Rutgers at 1-loss Nebraska: Rutgers had a somewhat improbable win vs. Washington last week to stay unbeaten. Win this week and there will be more consideration for being ranked.
1-loss Michigan at Washington: A repeat of last years national championship, but now a conference game and with both teams down a lot from last year. Michigan still has everything possible in front of them, but wins the last two weeks have been a struggle. They are two point underdogs here and will either have to take it up a notch or Washington will get at least a little piece of revenge.
1-loss UCF at Florida: UCF has made great strides over the past few years and Florida has been struggling of late. Florida is a 1-point favorite in the swamp and wants this for pride. The Big 12 would definitely benefit from a UCF win.
Undefeated Duke at Georgia Tech: One of the last three unbeatens from the ACC, Duke is an 8 point underdog in this game.
Undefeated Miami (FL) at Cal: Miami is 12 point favorite here, but they are also traveling cross country for a 10:30pm Eastern Daylight Time kickoff a week after they struggled with Virginia Tech. This is at least worth paying attention to. The ACC really needs the Hurricanes to keep winning for at least now.
1-loss Texas Tech at 1-loss Arizona: The Wildcats took down Utah last week. Win again and they will be treading on being ranked.
Sam Houston at winless UTEP: UTEP is a 10.5 point underdog here, but they are the most likely of the winless teams to get a win this week (Kent State is off: Kennesaw State is a 14.5 point underdog).
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 3, American: 2, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 5, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 0, SEC: 4, Sun Belt: 1, total: 19
Duke
Miami (FL)
Iowa State
Missouri
Texas
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
Indiana
Ohio State
Penn State
Brigham Young
UNLV
Oregon
Tennessee
Alabama
Army
Navy
Liberty
James Madison
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 7, American: 2, Big 12: 7, Big Ten: 5, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 2, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 2, SEC: 6, Sun Belt: 3, independents: 1, total 36
Clemson
Boston College
Southern Methodist
Louisville
Virginia
Syracuse
California
North Texas
Memphis
Colorado
Texas Tech
Arizona
Central Florida
Kansas State
Utah
Arizona State
Michigan
Iowa
Illinois
Nebraska
Southern California
Sam Houston
Eastern Michigan
Toledo
San Jose State
Boise State
Texas A&M
Louisiana State
Oklahoma
Georgia
South Carolina
Mississippi
Coastal Carolina
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana-Lafayette
Notre Dame
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 2, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 0, Sun Belt: 0, total: 3
UTEP
(Kennesaw State)
Kent State
