Teams with 1st loss week 4:
Maryland
Wake Forest
Oklahoma
Oregon State
Arkansas
Washington State
Iowa State
Duke
North Carolina
Indiana
Rutgers
Tulane
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 38.9% (51 of 131)
Week 2: 37.5% (30 of 80)
Week 3: 34% (17 of 50)
Week 4: 36.4% (12 of 33)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
6: The champs of the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, PAC-12, and Coastal Carolina/James Madison
-I had it listed at 8 last week when it should have been 7. While James Madison is not eligible for the Sun Belt Championship, they do play Coastal Carolina (the other undefeated in conference). This week we dropped another with Tulane's loss to Southern Miss eliminating the final American team.
Week 4 Thoughts:
-I added the 1-loss and winless team lists this week. As a reminder, every team save one to make the BCS Championship or CFP has been on that list except for 2007 LSU. Every NY6/BCS bowl from a non-AQ/Group of 5 conference has also been on that the undefeated/1-loss list except for 2014 Boise State.
-We start the winless list with only 3 teams. I might be a little late starting this, but that is exceptionally small. Somehow both Colorado and Colorado State are on that list though. They do not play each other this year.
-The MAC is now off every list.
-Clemson pulling out the win at Wake Forest was probably best for the ACC. Wake would have had a harder time making it up the rankings and Clemson wouldn't have been guaranteed an ACC Championship chance even winning out. Wake would have been a really good story though (still are really). Clemson now has a similar type match-up with North Carolina State next week.
-The Big 12 saw both Texas and Oklahoma lose. Texas is most likely out of the playoff bowl running and Oklahoma now has to run the table. The conference championship odds now have Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor, and Kansas State as all having very equal chances to win the conference. That parity is great for excitement. It is bad for CFP hopes though. Of those 4, only Oklahoma State is undefeated. The eventual champ cannot afford more than 1 loss and might not be able to afford that. Let's also take a second and notice that Kansas has played well and is 4-0.
-The PAC-12 saw its top teams win, but I am not sure it was a large win for the conference. USC only won by 3 vs. Oregon State and it might have actually been better for the conference if previous unbeaten Washington State had stayed that way with a win vs. Oregon, which they somehow gave up late.
-Tulane losing leaves just James Madison (not eligible for Sun Belt Championship or a bowl) and Coastal Carolina as undefeated from teams in Group of 5 conferences. Coastal Carolina was that way a long time last year before finally losing, but this year they actually control their destiny. If Coastal Carolina slips, we likely get the best 1-loss (assuming there is one) from the American, Sun Belt, and Mountain West. Including Coastal Carolina, that means we are comparing 10 teams at this point.
Week 5 Thoughts:
-We have 3 games between undefeated teams this week.
Undefeated Washington vs. undefeated UCLA (Friday): Neither are in the top 3 odds to win the PAC-12, but a win here might push the winner up there (especially Washington).
Undefeated North Carolina State @ undefeated Clemson: This is a similar deal to Clemson's game with Wake last week. Lose this less than touchdown favorite game and Clemson would need to win out and might need to 2 losses from North Carolina State.
Undefeated Kentucky @ Undefeated Ole Miss: Kentucky is the 2nd highest ranked team in the SEC East and Ole Miss is the 2nd highest ranked team in the SEC West. This is a good east/west comparison game and maybe to see if either can challenge Alabama/Georgia.
Undefeated Michigan @ 1-loss Iowa: Michigan struggled a bit with Maryland last week and Iowa finally found ways to score a few points. Win this and Iowa would likely jump up to be seen as favorite or 2nd favorite in the west after Minnesota. Michigan wants to dominate and stay high in the polls.
1-loss Oklahoma @ undefeated TCU: In the wide open Big 12, this game matters. Oklahoma cannot afford another loss and to stay in CFP race. Another loss might even throw them out of Big 12 race. TCU would move way up the odds in the conference race with a win.
Undefeated Oklahoma State @ 1-loss Baylor: The winner here might be the favorite in the conference next week.
1-loss Wake Forest @ undefeated Florida State: Wake Forest is coming off a tough loss last week, but still has scenarios to get back in things. Florida State is on the upswing and 3rd favorite to win the conference.
1-loss Iowa State @ Undefeated Kansas: Kansas is 4-0. They face Iowa State as a slight underdog
1-loss Georgia Southern @ undefeated Coastal Carolina: Winner here controls their destiny in the division. The loser needs a lot of help.
1-loss Texas A&M @ 1-loss Mississippi State: Winner still in conference race. This might be to see who is 2nd in the SEC West.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 4, American: 0, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 4, PAC-12: 3, SEC: 5, Sun Belt: 2, total: 21
Clemson
Florida State
North Carolina State
Kansas
Oklahoma State
Syracuse
Michigan
Minnesota
Ohio State
Penn State
Texas Christian
Southern California
UCLA
Washington
Georgia
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Mississippi
Coastal Carolina
(James Madison)
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 4, American: 4, Big 12: 5, Big Ten: 5, Conference USA: 3, MAC: 0, Mountain West: 3, PAC-12: 5, SEC: 5, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 2, total: 38
Wake Forest
Duke
North Carolina
Pittsburgh
Memphis
Cincinnati
Tulane
Central Florida
Baylor
Kansas State
Texas Tech
Iowa State
Oklahoma
Indiana
Maryland
Rutgers
Iowa
Illinois
Western Kentucky
Middle Tennessee
UAB
Air Force
UNLV
San Jose State
California
Oregon
Utah
Oregon State
Washington State
Auburn
Louisiana State
Texas A&M
Arkansas
Mississippi State
Georgia Southern
South Alabama
Brigham Young
Liberty
Remaining Winless Teams: Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, Sun Belt:1, total: 3
Colorado State
Colorado
Georgia State
