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Topic: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 15

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ohio1317

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Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 15
« on: December 08, 2020, 10:48:35 AM »
Teams with 1st Loss Week 14:
Brigham Young
Marshall
Washington
Western Michigan

Teams with 2nd Loss Week 14:
Wisconsin
Oregon
Central Michigan
Florida Atlantic
Fresno State
Arizona State
Washington State

Teams with 1st Win Week 14:
Akron
Eastern Michigan
New Mexico
Utah
California


Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
9: Coastal Carolina, Alabama, Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Ohio State, San Jose State, USC, Colorado, and Buffalo
-As was corrected pointed out to me, USC and Colorado was canceled and thus both can finish unbeaten and it should have been 11 possibilities last week. Now we are down to 9 with the loss of BYU and Marshall (Conference USA's final undefeated). We no longer have any possible remaining games left between undefeateds in the regular season.

Percent of Undefeateds with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 6.5% (5 of 77)
Week 2: 18.1% (13 of 72)
Week 3: 13.6% (8 of 59)
Week 4: 33.33% (17 of 51)
Week 5: 35.3% (12 of 34)
Week 6: 22.7% (5 of 22)
Week 7: 7.5% (5 of 67) -Added 50 teams to list.
Week 8: 24.2% (15 of 62)
Week 9: 12.8% (6 of 47)
Week 10: 31.7% (13 of 41)
Week 11: 21.4% (6 of 28)
Week 12: 22.7% (5 of 22)
Week 13: 23.5% (4 of 17)
Week 14: 30.8% (4 of 13)

Week 14 Thoughts:
-We got a surprise late game between undefeateds this week and BYU lost a close one to Coastal Carolina. This ends BYU's NY6 hopes. It pushes Coastal Carolina into a good spot though. It's definitely in the realm of possibility (although still probably slightly against odds) that they get an at large NY6 spot even if Cincinnati wins the American and take the Group of 5 guaranteed spot.

-Conference USA also found its way off the undefeated list as Marshall stunningly lost to Rice. It would have taken a real lot to get Conference USA in the NY6 anyway, but this ended any hopes.

-In the PAC-12, we saw Washington lose leaving no undefeateds in the north. We still have Colorado and USC in the south, but their game against each other was canceled. This hurts the PAC-12 CFP odds somewhat given the championship game will not be as high profile. If the final spot comes down to an undefeated USC vs. someone like Texas A&M or Cincinnati that might matter (I'd lean against that scenario though).

-Ohio State was able to play and looked good. It seems highly likely they will either play Michigan this week or rules will be adjusted a bit to allow Ohio State to go to Indianapolis if the game is canceled.

-Texas A&M beat Auburn. All they have left is Tennessee. I don't see the Aggies finishing in the top 3, but are a threat for the 4th spot if we get chalk on championship week (Notre Dame and Alabama winning), Ohio State loses, or Clemson blows out Notre Dame.

-Indiana's win over Wisconsin leaves them in position to seriously being looking at NY6 level bowl. They have Purdue and then one final unannounced game if not playing in the Big Ten Championship.

Group of 5 NY6 Bowl: We are pretty much down to the following teams having any chance in my view.
1. Cincinnati: If they win out, they get it. They might even with a close loss next week, but would lean against. They are the only team on here with that clear of a path.
2. Coastal Carolina: The win over BYU is going to bump them up. They will have a final difficult game vs. Louisiana-Lafayette in the Sun Belt Championship. I personally think only an undefeated Cincinnati beats them out if they win their last 2.
3. Tulsa: Beat Cincinnati twice and I'd lean on only Coastal Carolina beating them out. That said, the others below are also threats.
4. Louisiana-Lafayette: They still have the Iowa State win and Iowa State is playing for the Big 12 Championship. If Louisiana-Lafayette wins out and Iowa State wins out, they might just jump Tulsa even if Tulsa beats Cincinnati twice. More ideally, they are looking for Cincinnati and Tulsa to split, but with Tulsa winning the championship.
5. San Jose State: The Mountain West's last unbeaten. I think they need to win out, have Tulsa and Cincinnati split (with Tulsa taking the championship) and need Louisiana-Lafayette to win the Sun Belt. That would all be helped if Iowa State loses badly to Oklahoma.


Week 15 Thoughts:
-Undefeated Cincinnati @ 1-loss Tulsa: First of two games. This is for who will host the American Championship the following week. Any teams outside the American hoping for a NY6 spot need to watch this close.

-Winless Arizona @ winless Arizona State: One will get their first win of the year and the other will be the last winless team in the PAC-12.

-1-loss Nevada @ undefeated San Jose State: Two of the Mountain West's top teams. San Jose State is the conference's only NY6 hopeful left.

-Michigan @ undefeated Ohio State: Ohio State needs one more game under existing rules to play in the Big Ten Championship. While I suspect an alteration the way things have gone this year if it is canceled, hopefully it does not come down to it.

-Navy @ Army: Weird to think the season is usually already over. This is their regular week.

-North Carolina @ 1-loss Miami (FL): This is probably for a NY6 game for Miami. They are only slight favorites.

-Wisconsin @ Iowa: Both have 2 losses. If Iowa wins this, I could see the Big Ten setting them up to play Indiana the following week. That might actually give Iowa borderline NY6 possibilities (would lean against, but not a bad spot to be after losing first 2).

-1-loss Washington @ Oregon: For the PAC-12 South. USC is better off with Washington winning this.

-Undefeated USC @ UCLA: USC is only a small favorite here. Colorado needs USC to lose to go to the PAC-12 title. USC needs to put on a display to get into CFP contention.


Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 0, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 2, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 0, total: 9
Cincinnati
Alabama
Notre Dame
Coastal Carolina
Ohio State
Southern California
Colorado
Buffalo
San Jose State

One-Loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 1, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 5, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 2, total: 19
Tulsa
Clemson
Miami (FL)
Indiana
Liberty
Miami (OH)
Ohio
Ball State
Boise State
Florida
Texas A&M
Louisiana-Lafayette
Northwestern
Kent State
Brigham Young
Marshall
Washington
Western Michigan

Remaining Winless Teams: Big 12: 1, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 2, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 2, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 10
Kansas
Florida International
Massachusetts
Bowling Green
Northern Illinois
UNLV
Arizona State
Arizona
Vanderbilt
Louisiana-Monroe

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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 15
« Reply #1 on: December 08, 2020, 11:02:20 AM »
We could set a record for the numbers of both winless and undefeated teams, with fewer games on the docket. 
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

LittlePig

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 15
« Reply #2 on: January 02, 2021, 09:29:28 AM »
Ok, this was the list of undefeateds before week 15 and their status as today

Cincinnati - lost in bowl game
Alabama - still undefeated, playing OSU in NCG
Notre Dame - lost twice
Coastal Carolina - lost in bowl game
Ohio State - still undefeated, playing Bama in NCG
Southern California -lost in CCG
Colorado - lost twice
Buffalo - lost in CCG
San Jose State - lost in Bowl game


So by my calculations,  the only undefeated team will end up being...

The winner of the Bama/OSU National Championship Game !!!

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 15
« Reply #3 on: January 02, 2021, 01:41:51 PM »
Winless: This has to be the all time record, hasn't it? 

AAC: South Florida 

Big 12: Kansas

CUSA: UTEP, Florida Int, ODU*

Independent: UMass, NMSU*, UConn*

MAC: Bowling Green, Northern Illinois

Mountain West: UNLV

Pac 12: Arizona

SEC: Vanderbilt

Sunbelt: Louisiana Monroe

*Didn't even field a team
1919, 20, 21, 28, 29, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 42, 44
WWH: 1952, 54, 55, 57, 58, 60, 61, 62, 63, 65, 67, 68, 70, 72, 74, 75
1979, 81, 82, 84, 87, 94, 98
2001, 02, 04, 05, 06, 07, 08, 09, 10, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19

 

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