Teams with 1st Loss Week 11:
Georgia
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 11:
Toledo
Washington
Notre Dame
Texas Christian
Teams with 1st Win week 11:
None
Percent of Undefeated Teams with 1st Loss
Week 0/1: 36.15% (47/130)
Week 2: 37.35% (31/83)
Week 3: 28.85% (15/52)
Week 4: 35.13% (13/37)
Week 5: 29.17% (7/24)
Week 6: 23.53% (4/17)
Week 7: 38.46% (5/13)
Week 8: 0% (0/8)
Week 9: 37.5% (3/8)
Week 10: 0% (0/5)
Week 11: 20% (1/5)
Maximum possible Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season:
4: Georgia is eliminated, but still same number possible.
Possible undefeated teams: Alabama, Wisconsin, Miami (FL), and Central Florida
-With Georgia’s loss, we now have no remaining games between undefeated teams in the regular season. That means our last one was week 5 which has to be the earliest I have seen since doing this.
Week 11 Thoughts:
-Another crazy week. We lost our last 1-loss teams from the PAC-12 and MAC and last independent. We have 6 remaining undefeated or 1-loss teams from the 5 power conferences. Each one of them in my opinion controls their destiny along with 2-loss Auburn.
-This week helped push things back to the expected norm of getting in 4 teams from 4 different conferences we started the year with (although left plenty of room for that not to happen to; see below). Notre Dame will have a hard time getting back in after this and Georgia loosing eliminated a possible match-up of undefeateds in the SEC title game (with the loser very likely to make it in too).
-With the above said, there are still 2 very real scenarios for getting 2 teams from one conference in. If Auburn beats Alabama in 2 weeks, they go to the SEC Championship for a rematch vs. Georgia. If they win both, they are almost certainly in the Rose/Sugar and if they lose to Georgia, the Bulldogs are likely in as long as they don’t drop another before then. A 1-loss Alabama team likely would be too with either making 2 SEC teams. Anyone wanting to avoid that happening in the SEC, needs to root for the Tide to win out (or someone how lose next week).
-In the ACC, we also see scenarios for 2 in. If both Clemson and Miami (FL) win out until the ACC Championship and Clemson wins the title, a 12-1 Miami would be very attractive to put in over 2 loss teams along with Clemson. I don’t view that as quite as guaranteed as Alabama would be at 11-1, but think they would be highly attractive to the committee.
-The PAC-12’s easy ways in are now gone. It would take a lot of madness at this point, but there are still at least a few scenarios for USC I believe. I think USC, Ohio State, and of course Auburn are the 2-loss teams with a chance, but Auburn is the only one there who controls their destiny. Ohio State is better positioned after that (due to a game with Wisconsin if they win out) and USC need to hope both get eliminated along with some current undefeated and 1-loss teams.
-Not much change in the Group of 5 race besides Toledo’s small hopes now gone. Still looks to be the American here. Boise State might be able to make it, but need Memphis to lose and a team from the west to win the championship game for there to even be a shot.
Week 12 Thoughts
-Our undefeated teams play in the following games: Mercer @ undefeated Alabama, Virginia @ undefeated Miami (FL), Michigan @ undefeated Wisconsin, undefeated Central Florida @ Temple
-Our 1-loss teams play in the following: Kentucky @ 1-loss Georgia, Citadel @ 1-loss Clemson, 1-loss Oklahoma @ Kansas, SMU @ 1-loss Memphis, Tulsa @ 1-loss South Florida
-Not pretty lists for this week for either the undefeated or 1-loss teams. Michigan @ Wisconsin seems the biggest for national title implications. The South Florida and Memphis games can probably about clinch the NY6 bowl for the American if both win (assuming Memphis doesn’t blow it vs. East Carolina next week).
-Our winless teams play in the following: South Alabama @ winless Georgia Southern, Louisiana Tech @ winless UTEP. Georgia Southern probably has a better shot at a win next week vs. Coastal Carolina than this week, but this is probably the best of 2 chances UTEP has left which is not good considering they are 17 point underdogs.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big Ten: 1, SEC: 1, total: 4
Miami (FL)
Wisconsin
Central Florida
Alabama
One-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 2, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 0, MAC: 0, PAC-12: 0, SEC: 1, independents: 0, total: 5
Memphis
Oklahoma
Clemson
South Florida
Georgia
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 1, Sun Belt: 1, total: 2
UTEP
Georgia Southern
