Teams with 1st Loss Week 11:
Brigham Young
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 11:
Memphis
Navy
Louisville
Virginia
San Diego State
Teams with 1st Win Week 11:
Sam Houston
Percent of Teams with 1st loss of the Season:
Week 0/1: 36.0% (49 of 136)
Week 2: 36.8% (32 of 87)
Week 3: 29.1% (16 of 55)
Week 4: 23.1% (9 of 39)
Week 5: 33.3% (10 of 30)
Week 6: 25% (5 of 20)
Week 7: 26.7% (4 of 15)
Week 8: 45.5% (5 of 11)
Week 9: 0% (0 of 6)
Week 10: 33.3% (2 of 6)
Week 11: 25.0% (1 of 4)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
2: We lost our last possible Big 12 undefeated last week with BYU losing to Texas Tech.
Our remaining possible undefeated teams are: Ohio State/Indiana and Texas A&M.
There is only one remaining possible game between undefeated teams in the regular season and it is Ohio State vs. Indiana in the Big Ten Championship.
Week 11 Thoughts:
-Sam Houston beat Oregon State to get their first win. This leaves just UMass looking for their first victory.
-We had our first College Football Playoff Committee Ranking after I posted last week. It does seem they are trying to look more at strength of schedule this year. We'll see how that plays out in the end. My first impression last Tuesday was that it was better for the Big 12 and worse for the ACC, but we'll see and a lot happened this week.
-When we first went to 12 and I kept going with these lists, my initial guess was that Big Ten and SEC teams would usually be OK with two losses and that ACC and Big 12 teams would usually be OK with 1 loss. Last year, we got tests on all of that except the Big Ten part and we saw it play out. The one thing I wasn't really counting on was championship games losses not counting strongly (although we could have been over-reading that too). That brings us to this year...
-Let's start with the SEC. Texas A&M eliminated Missouri from playoff contention, while Vanderbilt came back to beat Auburn and stay with 2 losses. We still have seven undefeated, 1-loss, or 2-loss SEC teams. We are down to three weeks left in the year and a lot of SEC teams have either a bye or a weaker non-conference game left. Among those 7 teams, the only games between them left are Oklahoma at Alabama, Texas at Georgia, and Texas A&M at Texas. With those left, you could theoretically have all 7 finish with less than 2 losses and not all could be in. Realistically, the conference is making a case for getting in 5 and could even get in 6 under the right circumstances. Those outside the SEC wanting in should be rooting for the 2-loss teams to lose. Someone like Vanderbilt in the SEC also needs to hope for a few losses as they could be left out with 2 losses if you end up with too many 2 loss teams.
-In the Big Ten, Indiana and Oregon survived close road games. This eliminated Iowa from playoff and conference contention, but keeps Oregon well positioned. While Indiana or Ohio State can probably afford a loss, it is not a foregone conclusion that a 2 loss Oregon makes it, so they need to assume they have to win out. Washington lost a surprise one to Wisconsin which effectively eliminates them in all races. USC won to keep them with 1 conference loss and 2 overall to keep open at least a chance at the playoff or Big Ten Championship. Michigan was off, but with only 1 conference loss and a date vs. OSU ahead still have playoff/Big Ten Championship chances.
-The Big 12 saw Texas Tech firmly beat BYU. This leaves the two teams tied atop the Big 12 with Cincinnati. Cincinnati and BYU play in two weeks. The committee had BYU #8 and 2-loss Utah at #13. These were better than in the polls. The chance at 2 in is definitely still there, but they might need help. I had mostly written off Utah and they need decent help (especially from SEC), but are not out of it. For that matter, should Texas Tech drop another or the winner of Cincinnati/BYU lose, we will have a 2-loss Big 12 team in the championship game.
-Before we started the games two weeks ago, the ACC had 4 teams with 1 or fewer overall losses with no games left between them and decent looking scenarios for multiple teams. Two weeks ago, we saw Miami get their 2nd loss and Georgia Tech their first. This week Louisville and Virginia both suffered their 2nd loss in home games. I think the only scenarios left to put two in the playoff is to have Georgia Tech win out before losing the championship (including beating Georgia) or have 2-loss Miami receive a lot more love from the committee (they would be helped with Notre Dame and South Florida looking good). I think both scenarios are unlikely so the most likely result is we only get one from the ACC in the playoff. Worse for the conference, 5-4, but 4-1 in conference play Duke (who lost to UConn this week) actually has the 2nd best odds to win the conference right now. Should that happen, you would have to at least consider whether two Group of 5 champs could be ranked higher than Duke. I think the odds of the ACC being left out are pretty small, but the conference really doesn't want even the hint of it. All that said, this gives us an exciting conference race as we have 5 teams with 1 conference loss right now (Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pitt, SMU, and Duke).
-Group of 5 Race:
Tulane bounced back from a rough loss the week before and beat Memphis. Navy lost to Notre Dame. This leaves only a single one loss team in the American in North Texas. North Texas and South Florida probably control their destiny, but a 2+ loss American champ would open the door for other conferences to compete. That said, the competitors are limited and a 3 loss American champ would still be a strong contender this year.
The Mountain West saw their last single loss team lose with San Diego State falling to Hawaii. The conference now has two 2-loss teams in San Diego State and UNLV. I think either of them or someone else (a 3 loss Boise State maybe), would need a lot to make it at this point.
James Madison in the Sun Belt has had a lot happen that they needed to to get seriously in the playoff race. They continue with 1-loss as others have been losing. They still need at least North Texas to lose (I personally think South Florida and maybe Tulane have to lose too), but their odds have definitely jumped a lot.
Week 12 Thoughts:
Ohio at Western Michigan (Tuesday): This is a battle between two 1 conference loss teams (there are 4 in the MAC). Western Michigan is a slight favorite.
Northern Illinois at winless UMass (Wendesday): This is either UMass's best remaining chance at a win or 2nd best. They are better than 10 point underdogs.
Notre Dame at Pitt: Notre Dame needs to win to stay in the playoff race. Pitt is ranked and in the ACC race.
Michigan at Northwestern: Michigan still likely controls their Big Ten and playoff destiny. They lose both with a loss in Chicago. They are 11.5 point favorites.
Arizona at Cincinnati: If Cincinnati wins this, it sets up a huge game against BYU the following week. Two loss teams in the Big 12 are rooting for the Beatcats to lose this one, but win the following week if BYU wins this week.
South Florida at Navy: Both have 2 losses and 1 conference loss. Winner will have much easier time playing for conference championship and possible playoff birth.
Oklahoma at 1-loss Alabama: The Sooners are still alive for the playoff and they beat Alabama (badly) last year to knock the Tide out of the playoff. If they lose, the Sooners are out. For Alabama, a 2nd loss probably doesn't eliminate them from playoff, but might complicate their SEC Championship chances. Anyone on the bubble needs to root for the Tide (who are 6.5 point favorites).
Virginia at Duke: A battle of two 1-loss ACC teams. The loser will need a lot to get back in the ACC race. The conference would probably prefer Duke to lose (given they have 4 overall losses). Duke is close to a touchdown favorite.
North Carolina State at Miami: If Miami wants to get in, they need to blow out teams and get a lot of help.
Iowa at USC: This would have been bigger if Iowa had pulled off the upset last week. Still, USC is in the conference race, but likely would be out with a loss. USC is a 6.5 point favorite.
Appalachian State at 1-loss James Madison: James Madison is a huge favorite, but how they win might matter in a close playoff battle with an American champ.
Texas State at Southern Miss: Southern Miss is atop of the Sun Belt West by themselves, but not huge favorites.
Utah at Baylor: Utah got a decent ranking from the committee but doesn't control their Big 12 destiny and needs help to get in. Winning convincingly would help.
Texas at 1-loss Georgia: Texas is eliminated from playoff contention with another loss. Georgia can probably afford one more for the playoff, but probably not the SEC Championship. Those on the outside right now need to root against Texas here. Georgia is a 6.5 point favorite.
Kennesaw State at Jacksonville State: These two are undefeated in Conference USA and two of the favorites to win the conference. Kennesaw State is a 2.5 point favorite.
TCU at 1-loss BYU: BYU lost to Texas Tech last week, but still has everything in front of them if they win the next few weeks. A huge game will be set-up for them the following week against Cincinnati if they both win. BYU is a 5.5 point favorite.
Boise State at San Diego State: Both teams are the only two teams left in the conference with a single conference loss. The winner will more than likely be in the championship and loser might well be too. San Diego State is a 2.5 point favorite.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: Big 12: 0, Big Ten: 2, SEC: 1, total: 3
Texas A&M
Indiana
Ohio State
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 1, Mountain West: 0, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 1, total: 9
Alabama
Georgia
James Madison
Oregon
North Texas
Mississippi
Texas Tech
Georgia Tech
Brigham Young
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 0, MAC:1, total: 1
Massachusetts
