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Topic: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 12
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ohio1317 · « **on:** November 11, 2024, 09:59:36 AM »

Teams with 1st Loss Week 11:
Miami (FL)

Teams with 2nd Loss Week 11:
Georgia
Iowa State
Pittsburgh

Teams with 1st Win Week 11:
none

Percent of Teams with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 28.4% (38 of 134)
Week 2: 37.5% (36 of 96)
Week 3: 28.3% (17 of 60)
Week 4: 39.5% (17 of 43)
Week 5: 26.9% (7 of 26)
Week 6: 36.8% (7 of 19)
Week 7: 8.3% (1 of 12)
Week 8: 9.1% (1 of 11)
Week 9: 20% (2 of 10)
Week 10: 37.5% (3 of 8)
Week 11: 20% (1 of 5)

Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season: 3
-We are down one this week as we lost our last undefeated in the ACC. Our remaining possibilities of undefeateds at the end of the regular season are Indiana/Oregon, BYU, and Army. This would have been a strange list to see before the year.

Maximum Number of Games between Undefeated Teams in the Regular Season: 1
-Our only remaining possibility for an undefeated match-up in the regular season is if Oregon and Indiana win out and play in the Big Ten Championship Game.

Week 11 Thoughts:
-The conference races are starting to become more clear as we pass our 2nd week in November, but a lot of possibilities exist in across the country.

-Winless Kent State wasn't close this week. Their best chance at a win will likely be in two weeks when they face Akron.

-Indiana played Michigan this week. With all the years of losses hanging over them, this was a game I could see Indiana losing, but they pulled it off again. They are now 10-0 and they will go into the Ohio State game with a bye and undefeated. The rest of the top of the Big Ten held as well. Oregon is one game away from locking up a spot in the Big Ten Championship. Ohio State and Indiana control their destinies. Penn State looked great against Washington and need to root for the Ohio State/Indiana winner to lose one to maybe open a door (without looking through tie-breakers, my instinct is their best case scenario is for Ohio State to beat Indiana, but lose to Northwestern or in a emotionally charged Michigan game). All 4 teams remain in the running for the playoff.

-With Ole Miss beating Georgia and Alabama beating LSU, we now only have three teams left in the SEC with a single conference loss. They are the the three Ts: Tennessee, Texas A&M, and Texas. Texas and Texas A&M will play each other so if any of those three have any losses beyond that game, we will end up with a 2 conference loss team in the SEC Championship and there are a lot of options there in addition to the those three (Georgia, Alabama, Missouri, LSU, Ole Miss). The championship remains, very, very competitive. For playoff purposes, any of the overall two loss teams are still in the playoff race, with only maybe Missouri not really controlling their destiny (LSU has three total losses and is not in that discussion).

-In the ACC, we saw Miami lose their first game to Georgia Tech and Pitt loss their 2nd game. The latter is largely overlooked, but the playoff committee ranked Pitt higher than the polls last week and they might well have gotten in the playoff winning out.
Now we see a reverse of what we had a few weeks ago. At that point, SMU could win out, but would have been left out of the ACC Championship if Clemson and Miami won out. With Clemson and Miami both suffering losses, SMU is now the one in control and only one of Clemson or Miami can get in if SMU wins out. If we come to that, Miami will get the nod as they beat Louisville and Clemson lost to them. For two teams in the playoff, the ACC now has to rely on getting a team in who has 2 losses and who is not the conference champ. The best bet there is probably to have Miami or SMU win out and lose a close one to the other. BYU winning the Big 12 would help too as SMU lost a close one to them.

-Speaking of BYU, they had a 2nd half come back in the Holy War over rival Utah to remain the final unbeaten in the Big 12. That was really a game I could see them losing so getting past it was a big deal. Iowa State meanwhile lost to Kansas meaning there are no other undefeated or two loss teams in the conference. The conference's best bet at two in is to have BYU win out until the championship game and then lose that game.

-Group of 5 Race:
Not much changed in the race this week. Army had a tougher game, but won. The rest of the top of the American, Mountain West, and Louisiana-Lafayette all won. Army continues to control its destiny, but Boise State has the best route. Two loss American (Tulane, Memphis, Navy or with an extra two losses Army) and Mountain West champs (UNLV or with an extra loss Boise State) would be compared close with a 1-loss Louisiana-Lafayette so those comparisons bare watching for now. It is not out of the realm of possibility either we end up with a 3 loss champ in, but 2 loss remains more likely.

Week 12 Thoughts:
-We have no games between undefeated and 1-loss teams or between two 1-loss teams.

Winless Kent State at Miami (OH) (Wednesday): Kent State is a 30.5 point underdog.

1-loss Tennessee at Georgia: This is a must win for Georgia for both the SEC race and the playoff. If Tennessee loses this, we will have a two conference loss team going to Atlanta. Should Tennessee win this, they only have one SEC game left (Vanderbilt).

Kansas at undefeated BYU: Kansas beat previously 1-loss Iowa State last week after coming close to knocking off Kansas State in their previous appearance. BYU is a small favorite here and the Big 12 would prefer them to keep winning. BYU has been good at winning as a small favorite this year, but it is hard to keep that up week in, week out.

Undefeated Ohio State at Northwestern and 1-loss Texas at Arkansas: Both top ranked teams are decent favorites, but a loss for either changes conference races up a lot.

1-loss Boise State at San Jose State: Boise State is a big favorite. Win and they remain on a good track for playoff. Everyone not wanting them in, needs to root the other way.

South Alabama at 1-loss Louisiana-Lafayette: Louisiana is a 9 point favorite here. They are the Sun Belt's best hope. They need to win this and get a some help from the American and Mountain West.

Undefeated Oregon at Wisconsin: Oregon can lock up a place in the Big Ten Championship with a win here. They are 14.5 point favorites, but losing one random Midwestern game would not surprise me.

Utah at Colorado: 2-loss Colorado has only one conference loss and will stay in position for the Big 12 Championship if they win here. Iowa State, Kansas State, Arizona State, and West Virginia will all be rooting for Utah here. Colorado is a 10 point favorite.

Tulane at Navy: Both have two losses, but only one conference loss between them (Navy at Rice). Tulane will lock up a spot in the American Championship with a win. Navy will control their destiny if they do. An Army/Navy Championship becomes very feasible if Navy wins. Tulane is a 6.5 point favorite.

Arizona State at Kansas State: Both have two losses. The loser is out of the conference race. Winner will be looking for help (especially from Colorado), but still in it. Kansas State is an 8 point favorite.

Clemson at Pittsburgh: This game looked like it could be a lot bigger a few weeks ago. That said, it is still between two 2-loss teams. Also, Clemson is still hoping for an ACC title spot (needs a little help though). Clemson is a 10 point favorite.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 0, American: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, total: 4
Indiana
Brigham Young
Oregon
Army

1-Loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 0, Big 12: 0, Big Ten: 2, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total 10
Southern Methodist
Boise State
Washington State
Louisiana-Lafayette
Notre Dame
Tennessee
Ohio State
Texas
Penn State
Miami (FL)

Remaining Winless Teams: MAC: 1, total: 1
Kent State

jgvol · « **Reply #1 on:** November 11, 2024, 11:07:09 AM »

1-loss Tennessee at Georgia: This is ~~not~~ a must win for Georgia for both the SEC race and the playoff. If Tennessee loses this, we will have a two conference loss team going to Atlanta. Should Tennessee win this, they only have one SEC game left (Vanderbilt).

ohio1317 · « **Reply #2 on:** November 12, 2024, 10:01:13 AM »

Quote from: jgvol on November 11, 2024, 11:07:09 AM

1-loss Tennessee at Georgia: This is ~~not~~ a must win for Georgia for both the SEC race and the playoff. If Tennessee loses this, we will have a two conference loss team going to Atlanta. Should Tennessee win this, they only have one SEC game left (Vanderbilt).

Correct :-)

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Topic: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 12

ohio1317

Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 12

jgvol

Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 12

ohio1317

Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams Before Week 12