Teams with 1st Loss Week 9:
none
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 9:
Oklahoma
Missouri
South Florida
Teams with 1st Win Week 9:
none
Percent of Teams with 1st loss of the Season:
Week 0/1: 36.0% (49 of 136)
Week 2: 36.8% (32 of 87)
Week 3: 29.1% (16 of 55)
Week 4: 23.1% (9 of 39)
Week 5: 33.3% (10 of 30)
Week 6: 25% (5 of 20)
Week 7: 26.7% (4 of 15)
Week 8: 45.5% (5 of 11)
Week 9: 0% (0 of 6)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
5: No change from last week.
Our remaining possible undefeated teams are: Ohio State/Indiana, Navy, Texas A&M, BYU, and Georgia Tech
There is only remaining possible game between undefeated teams in the regular season and it is Ohio State vs. Indiana in the Big Ten Championship.
Week 9 Thoughts:
-All three ranked teams won in the ACC (the Virginia-North Carolina game was close though). Miami is highest ranked, but needs help to make the championship. The result a couple weeks ago between Louisville and Virginia has proven to be very significant. Louisville did later get the Miami win they need, but that only matters for the ACC race if they get some help now. In retrospect, the ACC probably wishes that game had gone the other way, because an undefeated Louisville would look better than a 1-loss Virginia leading the way. There are several possibilities for multiple teams in now though. If Virginia and Georgia Tech win out (in conference anyway), they'll play for the title and Miami will still be in if it wins out. If things go right, maybe even all three in (or two and Louisville). Other conferences should be rooting against the top of the ACC to diminish chances at extra spots.
-The next to last round of expansion is making itself known in the Big 12. BYU (formerly an independent) and Cincinnati and Houston (American before Big 12), all had good wins. BYU remains the only unbeaten after taking out Iowa State on the road. Cincinnati is now 5-0 in conference with a good win against Baylor. Houston surprised most by taking down Arizona State a week after the Sun Devils beat Texas Tech. With Arizona State's loss, there are now 4 undefeated or single conference loss teams in the Big 12. The scenarios where a 2 conference loss team makes the championship are growing, but the most likely scenario is still that it is 2 of those four are in the game. Getting two teams in the playoff probably means keeping 2 of those with less than 2 losses at least until the championship game (so only BYU can afford a loss and stay at large for an at large).
-In the Big Ten, Indiana and Oregon won their games while Ohio State was off. Washington won their game against Illinois to keep a small hope alive for the playoff while killing any chance for the Illini. Iowa beat Minnesota 41-3 and I actually lean to them being the most likely playoff team from the Big Ten right now outside of Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon. Iowa will play the Ducks in two weeks.
-Alabama has looked great the last few weeks, but was very close to losing to South Carolina this week. As things are now though, they are undefeated in conference play and all remaining games for them are against teams with 2 conference losses so the Tide can probably afford to lose 1 and get to Atlanta. Meanwhile, Texas A&M remains the conference's lone unbeaten overall after winning in Death Valley, Ole Miss's chances at the playoff continue to look strong, and Vanderbilt is now 7-1 with another ranked win, and Texas and Tennessee's playoff hopes survived with wins, but both have an uphill battle to get.
Group of 5 conference's playoff race: Memphis beat South Florida in the American, but it probably didn't change a ton. South Florida will still be very strong for the place if they finish as conference champs with 2 losses, while Memphis continues to be a strong challenger. The other 4 conference's need to hope for one weaker opponent entering the American title game. Of those other opponents, I am actually leaning San Diego State being the strongest competitor now. They aren't favored in the Mountain West, but they had one loss to Washington State and will probably be ranked if win out.
Week 10 Thoughts:
-We have one game between an undefeated and 1-loss team.
Undefeated Navy at 1-loss North Texas: Two toward the top of the American. North Texas is a favorite to give Navy their first loss. North Texas will need a lot to stay in American race with a loss. Navy will be taken very seriously with a win.
1-loss James Madison at Texas State (Tuesday): James Madison is the last one loss team in the Sun Belt. They need a decent bit of help for playoff spot, but first need to win this road game they are a bit less than a touchdown favorite.
1-loss Tulane at UTSA (Thursday): Tulane, not Memphis or South Florida, is the betting favorite to win the American (although it is close). They are are only a 4.5 point road weekday favorite though. If you want a conference outside the American to take the playoff spot, root for UTSA here as you probably need at least a 2 loss team entering the American championship (and probably a 3 loss team).
1-loss Vanderbilt at Texas: Texas has to win to stay in the playoff race. Vanderbilt has its own playoff hopes, but is a small underdog here.
Penn State at undefeated Ohio State: This looked like it could be #1 vs. #2 a few weeks ago. The line is over 20 now, but Penn State still has the talent on their roster and had an extra week to work things out. If the team rallies, this could be more of a game than people expect.
1-loss Miami (FL) at SMU: The Hurricanes are 10 point favorites, but they likely can no longer afford a loss for their playoff hopes (at a minimum they can't be sure they can).
West Virginia at 1-loss Houston: Line is huge, but worth mentioning Houston now ranked and very much in Big 12 race.
1-loss Louisville at Virginia Tech: Louisville needs a lot of help to make ACC Championship. For the playoff how they look might matter. I would lean to them getting in with a single loss regardless, but if the top of the ACC keeps winning, it could come down to that.
New Mexico at 1-loss UNLV: UNLV lost to Boise State, but still only has a single loss. They are 5.5 point favorites here and need this to stay in Mountain West race.
1-loss Georgia vs. Florida: Georgia is a favorite in the world's largest cocktail party, but to the point Florida winning would be not stunning. Florida already blew up a lot for Texas. Can they do it to their biggest conference rival?
1-loss Texas Tech at Kansas State: Kansas State had a good win vs. instate rival Kansas last week. Texas Tech still looking for conference title, but probably can't afford a 2nd loss for it. They are a bit over a touchdown favorite.
1-loss Virginia at Cal: Virginia controls their destiny for the ACC Championship, but likely would struggle for playoff bid without making the game. Cal had a close loss last week, but will be bowl eligible with a win and they are a small favorite.
South Carolina at 1-loss Ole Miss: South Carolina almost had the upset vs. Alabama last week. Can they deliver a surprise one this week instead?
Wyoming at 1-loss San Diego State: I lean to San Diego State as the Mountain West's best chance at the playoff. They are 10.5 point favorites.
Undefeated Georgia Tech at North Carolina State: Georgia Tech is still undefeated. They control their ACC destiny and are 6.5 point favorites. It should be noted North Carolina State beat Virginia (as a non-conference game).
Oklahoma at Tennessee: Both have two losses and the line is close. Loser is eliminated from playoff contention. The winner needs to win out.
USC at Nebraska: This game looked like could be bigger a few weeks ago. Both teams still have two losses. A 3rd eliminates playoff hopes. USC, with 1 conference loss, stands an outside chance of making Indianapolis.
Washington State at Oregon State: PAC-12 leftover fighting. Washington State has had a few close losses against ranked teams recently, but is only a small road favorite. These two will play again this year to end the year.
1-loss Cincinnati at Utah: Cincinnati is undefeated in conference play. With a win, would be 6-0 in conference and odds of going to Big 12 Championship would rise a lot. Utah, with 2 losses (both to teams ahead of them in the standings), would need a lot to get back into the race, but are favorites here.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, SEC: 1, total: 6
Georgia Tech
Texas A&M
Indiana
Ohio State
Brigham Young
Navy
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 3, American: 3, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 1, Mountain West: 2, SEC: 4, Sun Belt: 1, total: 17
Virginia
Tulane
Cincinnati
San Diego State
Alabama
Georgia
James Madison
Vanderbilt
Houston
Oregon
Louisville
North Texas
Miami (FL)
Mississippi
Texas Tech
Memphis
UNLV
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 1, MAC:1, total: 2
Sam Houston
Massachusetts
