First, thanks for all the great comments on these threads all season.
Teams with 1st loss Week 12:
Minnesota
Baylor
Teams with 2nd loss Week 12:
Navy
Louisiana Tech
Teams with 1st win Week 12:
New Mexico State
Rice
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
3: Clemson, LSU, Ohio State
-Minnesota's loss didn't change anything here, but Baylor losing eliminated the Big 12 last chance at an unbeaten.
Teams with 1st loss:
Week 0 and 1: 35.38% (46 of 130)
Week 2: 38.01% (32 of 84)
Week 3: 32.69% (17 of 52)
Week 4: 34.29% (12 of 35)
Week 5: 21.74% (5 of 23)
Week 6: 11.11% (2 of 18)
Week 7: 25% (4 of 16)
Week 8: 16.67% (2 of 12)
Week 9: 10% (1 of 10)
Week 10: 22.22% (2 of 9)
Week 11: 28.57% (2 of 7)
Week 12: 40% (2 of 5)
Week 12 Thoughts:
-Lots of stories, but lets start with the list that hadn't changed in a some time. We figured we were likely to lose one of our 3 remaining winless teams this week thanks to New Mexico State playing an FCS team. That did happen, but we actually ended up losing 2 teams from the list as Rice found a way to win 31-27 over Middle Tennessee. That leaves just Akron on the winless list and just 2 weeks left for them to find a win to get off.
-Minnesota and Baylor, after surprising everyone so far, both finally lost in big games this week, leaving us with just 3 unbeatens. We've lost at least one unbeaten every week so far (which is a bit odd this late in the season, especially given the extra week and more byes). Looking at Minnesota, they have the easier time recovering for the CFP bowls. Winning out would mean a win over Wisconsin and either Ohio State or Penn State team whom had just beat Ohio State. They most likely still control their destiny.
-Baylor definitely controls their Big 12 destiny and is likely going to play Oklahoma again in the Big 12 Championship. For the CFP bowls though, they probably need a bit of help. Even if we assume the SEC only gets one in (more on that below) if the Big Ten and ACC get one, it would come down to a 1-loss Big 12 champ vs. 1-loss PAC-12 champ if they both make it that far. For the moment at least both Utah and Oregon are higher than Oklahoma and Baylor. Oklahoma might pass one of them with the next rankings, but all 4 teams need to look impressive winning the next few weeks to help their cause in case that decision arises.
-While the Tua injury was the big headline, the biggest deal from a CFP perspective was probably actually Georgia beating Auburn. That was a game they were only slightly favored in and greatly increases odds we get a 1-loss Georgia vs. undefeated LSU. If LSU wins that still hypothetical game, they are in of course. If they lose to Georgia though, Georgia will be in and it is highly like LSU is in too (making the above Big 12/PAC-12 point moot). Even with the Tua injury, Alabama should not be considered completely out either. I personally think a 1-loss Big 12/PAC-12 champ would beat them out this year either way, but it is still very possible that Alabama blows through the rest of the schedule including vs. Auburn and they make themselves very hard to leave out.
-Group of 5 Cotton Bowl Bid: Louisiana Tech lost giving them their 2nd loss. This eliminates the small chance they had (it was hard figuring a path anyway, but might have been conceivable with 1-loss). That leaves this down to the American champ, the Mountain West champ, and Appalachian State.
For our other major competitors, Navy lost to Notre Dame giving them their 2nd loss, Boise State dominated New Mexico, Memphis won on the road at Houston, and Cincinnati just keeps finding ways to win. They beat South Florida on the road in a game they were statistically behind in.
Looking forward, Boise State probably needs a 2-loss American champ and everyone else probably needs a 3 loss champ (although a strong 2 loss American champ might beat Boise and Appalachian State might be competitive vs. the right 2 loss champs). That means they need a little help over next 2 weeks. The top American teams are going to play each other somewhat over that time so that does help. Realistically, the only teams with a chance at this point (even small ones) are probably: Cincinnati, Memphis, SMU, Navy, Boise State, San Diego State, Air Force, and Appalachian State.
Week 13 Thoughts:
Our winless team plays on Wednesday where winless Akron goes to 6-4 Miami (OH). Miami for its part can wrap up its place in the MAC Championship Game with a win and will be a big favorite.
Our undefeated teams play in the following: 1-loss Penn State @ undefeated Ohio State and Arkansas @ undefeated LSU. Clemson is off.
Our other 1-loss teams play in the following: Western Carolina @ 1-loss Alabama, 1-loss Minnesota @ Northwestern, Texas State @ 1-loss Appalachian State, Texas A&M @ 1-loss Georgia, Texas @ 1-loss Baylor, 1-loss SMU @ Navy, 1-loss Memphis @ South Florida, Temple @ 1-loss Cincinnati, 1-loss Oregon @ Arizona State, TCU @ 1-loss Oklahoma, 1-loss Utah @ Arizona, and 1-loss Boise State @ Utah State
1-loss Penn State @ undefeated Ohio State: Assuming Penn State does not lose to Rutgers the following week, the winner here is guaranteed to go to the Big Ten Championship. If you are a Big 12/PAC-12 fan, bit of a conundrum here as best way to keep Big Ten out involves Ohio State losing, but a 1-loss Ohio State would be at least in conversation even not as Big Ten champs (I'd lean out unless very close and Penn State dominates rest of way).
Texas A&M @ 1-loss Georgia: Georgia has the SEC title game locked up, but if they lose this would not be guaranteed anything by winning the SEC.
1-loss SMU @ Navy: Winner of this game is effectively 2nd place in American western division and looking for a slip up from Memphis to claim top spot. Both are still in Cotton Bowl spots if Memphis loses and both lose that with a loss.
1-loss Memphis @ South Florida: South Florida almost had Cincinnati last week and have played better than their record shows. Memphis cannot afford any loss right now given they are in a 3 way tie in their division.
Texas @ 1-loss Baylor: If Baylor can recover from the disappointment last week, this week is still huge. Beat Texas and they are in the Big 12 championship and will get their likely rematch vs. Oklahoma. Texas is not completely out of it, but they need the Bears to collapse down the stretch and both lose this week and next (@Kansas).
Temple @ 1-loss Cincinnati: Win this week and the Bearcats lock up their place in the American Championship Game. Lose and they almost certainly will have to beat Memphis the following week. Very big week.
1-loss Boise State @ Utah State: Win this and Boise State and locks up spot in Mountain West Championship Game. Lose it and we have a 3 way tie between these two and Air Force (assuming Air Force wins this week @New Mexico) atop the standings going into the final week.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, Big 12: 0, Big Ten: 1, SEC: 1, total: 3
Clemson
Ohio State
Louisiana State
1-loss Teams: ACC: 0, American: 3, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 0, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 2, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 1, total: 13
Cincinnati
Oregon
Utah
Georgia
Memphis
Boise State
Oklahoma
Appalachian State
Southern Methodist
Alabama
Penn State
Minnesota
Baylor
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 0, MAC: 1, independents: 0, total: 1
Akron
