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Topic: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 11
(Read 3815 times)

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #14 on:** November 13, 2019, 09:46:10 AM »

Quote from: Riffraft on November 13, 2019, 09:26:16 AM

If you figure that Penn State would have beaten Ohio State and probably revenged their loss to Minny in the B1GCG, I would think the committee would take Penn State

I agree. Looking at the rankings right now, Oregon is #6 with a loss to #12 and zero wins over ranked teams. The only currently ranked team that they could possibly play is #7 Utah.

Penn State is #9 with a loss to #8 and wins over #15 and #20. Additionally, winning out would require beating #2 and either #8, #14, or #20. Even if Oregon's loss ends up better than Penn State's, the Nittany Lions at 12-1 would still have a HUGE advantage over Oregon in quality wins.

Additionally, most of the things that could degrade Penn State's loss and/or their hypothetical quality wins would improve other Penn State results. Ie, if Michigan beats Ohio State that would degrade PSU's hypothetical best win, but it would improve their hypothetical second best win so that is a wash. Even Indiana beating Michigan might be roughly a wash for PSU because it would likely result in Indiana being ranked.

fezzador · « **Reply #15 on:** November 13, 2019, 10:15:14 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on November 13, 2019, 07:28:50 AM

What about Oregon at 12-1? Might they get chosen over a 12-1 Penn State, while Baylor/Clemson/LSU are 13-0?

Highly unlikely. As it stands Oregon needs some help getting in. They don't always win pretty, they lost the one game they absolutely needed to have as their signature win, and play a mediocre schedule. It sounds an awful lot like Bama, but even with their controversial selections to MNC games/playoff appearances (the ones where they didn't even win their own division), they have a proven track record that indicated that they at least belonged there. Oregon doesn't have that benefit. They need to absolutely slaughter Utah like 52-7 to get the committee to bite, and hope that Clemson loses somewhere (which is a distinct possibility, but they have been playing much better lately so it's not likely they'll get tagged until the postseason). They won't get in over a 12-1 B1G champ, they won't get in over a 12-1 SEC champ, and they might not get in over a 12-1 B12 champ or B1G/SEC runner-up. LSU can absolutely lose to Georgia in the SEC 'ship and still get in as the 4 seed (and there wouldn't be as much controversy because they'd have at least won their division)

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #16 on:** November 13, 2019, 11:14:28 AM »

Quote from: fezzador on November 13, 2019, 10:15:14 AM

...Bama, but even with their controversial selections to MNC games/playoff appearances (the ones where they didn't even win their own division)...

Two teams have made the CFP without playing in their CG. Both were division co-champs:

In 2016 Ohio State lost by a FG on the road to PSU. The Buckeyes and Nittany Lions both finished 8-1 in the B1G. They were co-Champions of the B1G-E and PSU went to the B1GCG based on their H2H win.
In 2017 Alabama lost 26-14 on the road to Auburn. The Tide and Tigers both finished 7-1 in the SEC. They were co-Champions of the SEC-W and Auburn went to the SECCG based on their H2H win.

In both cases the team that the CFP selected was a divisional co-champion who lost the tiebreaker due to a road loss. Back when we didn't have divisions everyone was accustomed to talking about co-champions. Now all of a sudden it seems like most people think co-champions no longer exist.

In both cases the H2H winner that went to the respective CG had multiple losses. Auburn lost 14-6 to Clemson and 27-23 to an LSU team that Bama beat 24-10. Penn State lost to Pitt and got annihilated by a Michigan team that Ohio State beat.

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Topic: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 11

medinabuckeye1

Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 11

fezzador

Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 11

medinabuckeye1

Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-Loss, and Winless Teams after Week 11