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Topic: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 9)

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Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 9)
« on: October 21, 2018, 09:04:57 PM »
Teams with 1st loss Week 8:
Ohio State
North Carolina State

Teams with 2nd Loss Week 8:
North Texas

Teams with 1st win Week 8:

Percent of Undefeated Teams with 1st Loss
Week 0/1: 36.92% (48/130)
Week 2: 34.15% (28/82)
Week 3: 37.04% (20/54)
Week 4: 38.34% (13/34)
Week 5: 33.33% (7 of 21)
Week 6: 21.43% (3 of 14)
Week 7: 27.27% (3 of 11)
Week 8: 37.50% (3 of 8)

Maximum possible Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season:
4: Notre Dame, UCF/South Florida, Clemson, Alabama
-We went down one with the Big Ten no longer able to have a team.

Week 8 Thoughts:
-Our percent of teams losing their first game still have all followed in the 20%s or 30%s. If that is to continue close to that next week, we would need to lose exactly 1 team (20%) or 2 teams (40%).

-Nebraska finally leaves our 1-loss list with a dominating win over Minnesota. Only two teams left.

-Biggest national story from this list was probably Purdue soundly defeating Ohio State. As a Buckeye fan, it was disheartening to say the least, but fits with the trends. Ohio State’s win have gradually looked less impressive than at first glance and Purdue has been much better than their record showed. Michigan right now looks like the class of the Big Ten, but Ohio State still controls their destiny to get to Indianapolis (although no longer does for the CFP).

-We may as well pencil Clemson into the ACC Championship after the win this week.

-PAC-12 continues to see teams beat up on each other. A week after a good win vs. Washington, Oregon loses to Washington State keeping the north race totally open. USC lost in the South and who wins either division is anyone’s guess. Whomever it is, at this point, is strongly likely to be heading to the Rose Bowl.

-Cincinnati lost in a nailbiter comeback by Temple which ends the perfect streak. They probably still do control their own NY6 destiny still with both USF and UCF left, but is a tall order (although both have looked vulnerable). UAB seems far and way biggest wild card to me in NY6 bowl. This week they beat previous 1-loss North Texas leaving them as Conference USA’s last hope. One thing that helps them out (although they will be big underdogs) is still having a game vs. Texas A&M. Likely they lose it, but if they do find a way to win it, that creates the only scenario I can envision where a 1 loss American or Mountain West Champ could be beaten out.

-Thinking of that G5 conference race, how big was Appalachian State dropping the opener to Penn State after being in such a commanding spot? Pull that win out and they might be favorites right now to make it. With the loss though, they just don’t have the strength of schedule to likely get back in without a lot of breaks.

Week 9 Thoughts:
-Our undefeated teams play in the following games: Undefeated Clemson @ Florida State, undefeated South Florida @ 1-loss Houston, undefeated Notre Dame @ Navy,

-Most interesting game in that to me is South Florida @ Houston. Houston wins this, not only do they stay atop the west standings, they stay at a spot they’ll likely earn the NY6 bid if they win out. If they lose, they are out of that. South Florida meanwhile completely controls their destiny for the NY6, but have looked less impressive last few weeks and could use some momentum.

-We have 2 games between 1-loss teams.
-The first is Florida @ Georgia. These two are tied with Kentucky for top of the standings in the SEC East. Winner will be big favorite to make it to Atlanta I.
-Appalachian State @ Georgia Southern: Winner here will be last 1-loss Sun Belt team and control their division. Most likely will be only remote shot for Sun Belt getting the NY6 bid.

Our winless teams play in the following: Winless UTEP hosting UAB, Winless San Jose State hosting UNLV. San Jose State seems more likely of the two to win this week

Other games from list of note:
1-loss Iowa @ Penn State: Iowa has looked on fire last few weeks. If they can pull this off here, they very much remain in the west race. Will just need 1 more Wisconsin loss.

1-loss Washington State @ Stanford: Both teams control their PAC-12 destiny. Winner will be very shape in the north.

 Remaining Undefeated Teams:
ACC: 1, American: 2, Big Ten: 0, SEC: 1, independents: 1, total: 5
South Florida
Central Florida
Notre Dame

1-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 2, Big 12: 3, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 3, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 4, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 0, total: 21
Utah State
Fresno State
San Diego State
Georgia Southern
Appalachian State
Washington State
Louisiana State
West Virginia
Ohio State
North Carolina State

 Remaining Winless Teams:
Big Ten: 0, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, total: 2
San Jose State
« Last Edit: October 22, 2018, 10:12:38 PM by ohio1317 »


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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 9)
« Reply #1 on: October 22, 2018, 08:28:04 AM »
Per @ohio1317 's list we are now down to 26 undefeated (5) and 1-loss (21*) teams.  They are mostly ranked and they are nearly all at least receiving some AP votes:
  • #1, 8-0 Bama
  • #2, 7-0 Clemson
  • #3, 7-0 Notre Dame
  • #4, 7-1 LSU
  • #5, 7-1 Michigan
  • #6, 6-1 Texas
  • #7, 6-1 UGA
  • #8, 6-0 Oklahoma
  • #9, 6-1 Florida
  • #10, 7-0 UCF
  • #11, 7-1 Ohio State
  • #12, 6-1 Kentucky
  • #13, 5-1 WVU
  • #14, 6-1 Washington State
  • #18, 6-1 Iowa
  • #21, 7-0 USF
  • #22, 5-1 NCST
  • #25, 5-1 ApSt
  • #27, 6-1 Utah State (NOTE: from here down the "rankings" are position based on Others Receiving Votes, not an actual ranking)
  • #28, 6-1 SDSU
  • #29, 6-1 Fresno
  • #32, 6-1 Houston
  • #35, 6-1 Cincy
  • #39, 6-1 UAB
  • nr, 7-1 Buffalo
  • nr, 6-1 GaSo

*Ohio1317 listed all 21 but must have forgot to count the two SunBelt teams because he listed a total of only 19.  


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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 9)
« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2018, 10:11:52 PM »
Always like your analysis.

Figures on the total being wrong.  I have double checked the numbers every week until this week when I figured I didnt change much, so it should be fine.:)


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Re: Remaining Undefeated, 1-loss, and Winless Teams (Before Week 9)
« Reply #3 on: October 23, 2018, 02:40:07 PM »
1 small typo.

You wrote that Nebraska left the 1-loss list instead of leaving the winless list. :)


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