Teams with 1st loss Week 5:
Syracuse
Penn State
Stanford
California
Duke
Buffalo
North Texas
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 5:
Memphis
Mississippi
Baylor
Southern Mississippi
Brigham Young
Texas Tech
South Carolina
Mississippi State
Virginia
Coastal Carolina
Utah
New Mexico
Arkansas State
Toledo
Teams with 1st win Week 5:
none
Percent of Undefeated Teams with 1st Loss
Week 0/1: 36.92% (48/130)
Week 2: 34.15% (28/82)
Week 3: 37.04% (20/54)
Week 4: 38.34% (13/34)
Week 5: 33.33% (7 of 21)
Maximum possible Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season:
7: Notre Dame, Colorado, UCF/South Florida/Cincinnati, Ohio State, Clemson/North Carolina State, Oklahoma/West Virginia, LSU/Alabama/Kentucky/Georgia
-We are down two with the last MAC and Conference USA teams losing. There are no remaining possible out of conference games between undefeated teams in the regular season.
Week 5 Thoughts:
-Lists are starting to get small, but our percent of teams losing for the first time continues to be relatively stable so far. This was the lowest week with only a 1/3 losing, but the highest week was only about 5% higher with 38.34% losing last week. This trend will start to change with a smaller pool of remaining unbeatens.
-The Notre Dame victory may have been biggest story overall in the national narrative last night even if Ohio State/Penn State certainly beat it in ratings. With the win, Notre Dame likely will be favorite going forward (although several future opponents look stronger after last night than before). On the other side of things, the PAC-12 is probably in the most difficult spot to get a team in the CFP bowls. Colorado is the only unbeaten left and 2 loss USC seems to be getting better. That said, several PAC-12 teams still probably control destiny with just a bit of help.
-Early in season, but several conferences races coming into focus. West Virginia looking very much like the big competition for Oklahoma this year in the Big 12 thus far. Ohio State in another classic with Penn State (3 in a row), positions itself well in the east (although don’t count out the Nittany Lions). Clemson meanwhile might have let themselves at least open door for some other teams with quarterback issues (although will be favored rest of the way still).
-Group of 5 NY6 race: MAC and Conference USA lost their final undefeated teams which is a big deal for both conferences. They join the Sun Belt and likely need a 1-loss team with a major upset and/or (to varying degrees) weaker teams winning the Mountain West/American championship games. The American is in the best position right now with 3 undefeated teams in Cincinnati, South Florida, and Central Florida.
Week 6 Thoughts:
-We have no games between undefeated teams this week. Our undefeated teams play in the following games: undefeated Alabama @ Arkansas, Texas vs. undefeated Oklahoma (Cotton Bowl), Kansas at undefeated West Virginia, Tulane at undefeated Cincinnati, Boston College at undefeated North Carolina State, undefeated Clemson at Wake Forest, undefeated LSU at Florida, undefeated South Florida at UMass, Indiana at undefeated Ohio State, SMU at undefeated UCF, undefeated Kentucky at Texas A&M, Vanderbilt at undefeated Georgia, undefeated Notre Dame at Virginia Tech
-Our winless teams play in the following: Winless Nebraska at Wisconsin, Washington at winless UCLA, North Texas at winless UTEP, and Colorado State at winless San Jose State. Of the 4, San Jose State stands the best chance by far to pull out a victory. Colorado State only has one win and is playing on the road. Other 3 winless teams will likely be big underdogs.
Few interesting games to me from these lists:
-We have 1-loss Texas playing undefeated Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout. This will be big game to show Texas progress and possible Oklahoma regression. Oklahoma will be a favorite here, but Texas winning would immediately get people talking about them being in conference title race.
-1-loss San Diego State at 1-loss Boise State: Either team might need this game to compete for the NY6 bowl. Both would be strong contenders as 1-loss Mountain West champs, but 2 loss champs would be tougher (although Boise State did it once).
-Undefeated Notre Dame at 1-loss Virginia Tech: Stanford was the game everyone was looking for, but Virginia Tech is looking up and they are the last currently ranked team on Notre Dame’s schedule (although I would bet USC will be by the end). Also, this is in Virginia. If Virginia Tech wins, the Old Dominion loss will look like more and more a fluke. If Notre Dame wins, odds of them making a CFP bowl jump considerably.
-1-loss Maryland at 1-loss Michigan: Maryland has looked good most of this year (outside of the bad Temple loss) and Michigan has been back and forth. If Michigan is going to be a serious Big Ten title contender, it needs to start looking more consistent. On the other side, Maryland can show any progress has been more than superficial with a win here.
-Undefeated LSU at 1-loss Florida: 2 ranked teams here. LSU has been one of biggest surprise teams so far and Florida has really picked things up from a weaker showing to start.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 2, American: 3, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 0, MAC: 0, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 4, independents: 1, total: 14
Clemson
North Carolina State
Colorado
Oklahoma
Cincinnati
South Florida
West Virginia
Ohio State
Central Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
Alabama
Louisiana State
Notre Dame
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 5, American: 1, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 8, Conference USA: 4, MAC: 2, Mountain West: 5, PAC-12: 5, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 3, independents: 0, total: 38
Miami (FL)
Houston
Texas
Maryland
Michigan
Michigan State
Wisconsin
UAB
Boise State
Utah State
Hawaii
Fresno State
San Diego State
Washington
Florida
Auburn
Georgia Southern
Troy
Appalachian State
Oregon
Washington State
Missouri
Louisiana Tech
Virginia Tech
Oklahoma State
Iowa
Boston College
Indiana
Minnesota
Akron
Marshall
Syracuse
Penn State
Stanford
California
Duke
Buffalo
North Texas
Remaining Winless Teams: Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, total: 4
Nebraska
UTEP
San Jose State
UCLA
